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Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

npr.org

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Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#101

Post by fortran77 »

vmception wrote: post #22
ultimoo wrote: post #7

Right now, being a landlord in SF is looking pretty grim given that tech workers who used to rent are fleeing in droves and those that are not are negotiating their rents. I wonder whether this trend will reverse in the next 1-3 years or this is the new permanent dynamic of the SF rental market.

The midatlantic region is filled with cities that are carcasses of an industrial era that doesn't exist anymore. It's not "doom and gloom" to say that when there are examples of it happening before. San Francisco's tax base is leaving. What do you think is going to happen? Rent wise, San Francisco will just be Anytown, USA with a little bit of scarcity due to plethora of rent control and old tenants with grandfathere…

> San Francisco's tax base is leaving. What do you think is going to happen?

For one thing, they'll tax the remaining taxpayers until they move or die.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#102

Post by alexpetralia »

xivzgrev wrote: post #98
nickff wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate to ask for a citation, but where are you getting that 1% number? It seems made-up. I would guess that more than one percent of office workers will be permitted/encouraged to go remote, but I think that few companies will go remote. There is no reason why remote needs to be a company-wide Boolean selection.

well what we've heard from remote-first companies is that remote culture is a very deliberate thing. if you have hybrid model and don't actively work to include remote folks, they will naturally become second class citizens - less visibility, less in the loop, and less likely to get promoted. so i think that's in part where the boolean pressure is coming from.

For people who strongly prefer to work remotely, doesn't this seem like a cost they sign up for?

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#103

Post by baddox »

chrisseaton wrote: post #36
ssequeira wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some examples of Bay Area towns? It seems like everyone in my friend circle in tech lives in San Francisco and puts up (or used to) with the long commute.

Half Moon Bay for example looks like a nice little place? I had dinner there once passing through. Wasn't an Applebees. https://www.visithalfmoonbay.org/ Go much further north of the Bay and you can live in Yountville and I think you'll have a 3-star restaurant in your town, which is a level of culture you can't even get in most US megacities. Again not Applebees. https://yountville.com/

I doubt you want to live in Half Moon Bay unless your schedule allows you to get outside during the week and hunker down to avoid the weekend traffic when the weather is decent.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#104

Post by baddox »

ghaff wrote: post #32
ssequeira wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some examples of Bay Area towns? It seems like everyone in my friend circle in tech lives in San Francisco and puts up (or used to) with the long commute.

Quite a few of the towns in the South Bay have walkable cores: Mountain View, Palo Alto, San Mateo... You also have smaller cities all over the country. Now, you get into truly small towns in places like New England and there really isn't a lot in the town center and it's unlikely you'll be living walking distance from it.

The towns in the peninsula are nice, even the smaller ones like Burlingame or even San Carlos. But apartment rents are barely cheaper there in SF for comparable nice units, and you’ll almost certainly need a car, and you of course lose many of the benefits of a big city like SF if you value those things.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#105

Post by davidw »

I am really curious about this trend myself.

I live in a town - Bend, Oregon - that already had a lot of remote workers. It also has a housing affordability problem that is getting rapidly worse.

I'm also curious about the "non-zoom" towns and what the dynamics might look like there. Bend was already fairly well-known, but there are tons of former mining/logging/ranch towns throughout the west that have access to a lot of fun stuff to do in the outdoors, but are still relatively cheap because they aren't "on the radar".

I facilitate a local YIMBY group here in Bend, but it's an uphill battle. A town of 100K people can enact some good policies (and we have), but if even 1K people from the bay area decided to move here, that would massively change our housing market.

Perhaps moving onwards into the 'next hot spots' is what will keep happening? But that still leaves people in service jobs that can't be remote and don't earn as much as all the remote workers in a really bad spot. Who's going to teach their kids? Take care of them in the hospitals? Fight fires?

I wrote about it here: https://journal.dedasys.com/2018/07/27/fight-or-flight-yimby...

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#106

Post by davidw »

xivzgrev wrote: post #97
zachware wrote: post #92

This will all depend what % of employers stay with their current remote structure. It’ll be somewhere between 1% of 80/90%. The point is that we’re making long-term decisions based on short-term problems. Specifically this week JP Morgan asked its traders to return to the office. You can counter this with examples like Facebook opening an office in Austin some years ago because that’s where the talent had moved. Simi…

exactly this. i'm pretty surprised at the number of people buying homes in far out locations, like this "new normal" is going to be the "new normal" ongoing. I don't buy it (yet). There are a few companies that have bought in, and if you work there then at least you're set for a bit. But people only stay at a tech job for a few years typically - what happens when you want to switch companies?

I too want to wait and see, but I could see things shifting more permanently. When employees get benefits, they tend to be "sticky": they're not easily given up. Working remotely in a nicer place is a pretty good benefit for a lot of people.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#107

Post by jdhn »

Ah, Truckee. Really, NPR should've lumped Western Nevada into the article as well. I left Nevada in the mid 2010's, but housing prices were well above their Recession lows. Now I look at houses in that area on Trulia, and the prices just seem to go forever upwards. Scenic mountain views + no income tax on the Nevada side + remote work + Tesla moving in = housing boom.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#108

Post by davidw »

alexpetralia wrote: post #102
xivzgrev wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

well what we've heard from remote-first companies is that remote culture is a very deliberate thing. if you have hybrid model and don't actively work to include remote folks, they will naturally become second class citizens - less visibility, less in the loop, and less likely to get promoted. so i think that's in part where the boolean pressure is coming from.

For people who strongly prefer to work remotely, doesn't this seem like a cost they sign up for?

If they don't have better options. But there are better options out there where remote is central.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#109

Post by jdhn »

alex_g wrote: post #4

"Many Americans — especially 30-somethings who remain employed — are ditching their tiny rental apartments in hip districts of expensive cities and moving to buy houses in more affordable cities or the burbs for a life of shopping at Home Depot and spending their Friday nights eating mozzarella sticks at Applebee's." oof, that's a savage take for NPR.

I like shopping at Home Depot and feel mildly attacked by this.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#110

Post by jessaustin »

alex_g wrote: post #4

"Many Americans — especially 30-somethings who remain employed — are ditching their tiny rental apartments in hip districts of expensive cities and moving to buy houses in more affordable cities or the burbs for a life of shopping at Home Depot and spending their Friday nights eating mozzarella sticks at Applebee's." oof, that's a savage take for NPR.

...spending their Friday nights eating mozzarella sticks at Applebee's.

One won't be surprised by the spike in suicides a few years later...

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