Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas • Hacker News Board

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#71

Post by pbourke » Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 7:39 PM UTC

rsynnott wrote: post #41

refurb wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What confuses me is the home buying far outside urban areas. I understand that people will be working from home for 12 months, but buying a home an expensive transaction. If forced to go back to the office, these folks are looking at very long commute. I assume they: 1) know for sure they can wfh permanently, 2) are betting they will be able to wfh permanently or 3) are willing to quit when asked to come back to the…

I think a lot of people _are_ assuming that the dynamic has permanently changed, and that WFH will be the default, or at least way more common, in their sector from now on. I suspect that they may be incorrect, here.

> I suspect that they may be incorrect, here.

I’m curious why you’d think that? It will be over a year before many workplaces are in a position to end the WFH policies. A year is a long time, enough for cultures to adapt.

* edit: I mean over a year from the start of WFH policies in March-April of this year.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#72

Post by pkaye » Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 7:42 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #65

8note wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's a difference between needing a roof over your head vs needing to protect your investment portfolio.

Well, my landlord in SF was an old lady whose husband died suddenly at 50 and their retirement portfolio was their apartment building. But screw her right?

A retirement portfolio should be more diversified. It would be like investing all your 401k on company stock.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#73

Post by SpicyLemonZest » Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 7:46 PM UTC

dcolkitt wrote: post #57

refurb wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What confuses me is the home buying far outside urban areas. I understand that people will be working from home for 12 months, but buying a home an expensive transaction. If forced to go back to the office, these folks are looking at very long commute. I assume they: 1) know for sure they can wfh permanently, 2) are betting they will be able to wfh permanently or 3) are willing to quit when asked to come back to the…

Isn’t this a case of the expectation creating the outcome. If half the employees bought homes outside commuting distance, what can the company do? Seems like they’ll be forced to adopt remote first whether they like it or not. No company is going to be able to lay off half its workforce. The labor market for software engineers and most other professionals is still extremely tight. Until it’s otherwise, the workers ar…

I doubt that anywhere close to 50% of people are making long-distance moves, even the densest urban areas.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#74

Post by saltcured » Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 7:47 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #31

nordsieck wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I wonder whether this trend will reverse in the next 1-3 years or this is the new permanent dynamic of the SF rental market. IMO, that's completely dependent on how much SF tech companies embrace remote work.

What confuses me is the home buying far outside urban areas. I understand that people will be working from home for 12 months, but buying a home an expensive transaction. If forced to go back to the office, these folks are looking at very long commute. I assume they: 1) know for sure they can wfh permanently, 2) are betting they will be able to wfh permanently or 3) are willing to quit when asked to come back to the…

I wonder whether some still assume that the real estate will mostly appreciate, and that they can liquidate later if things change? They may not consider that a reversal of WFH might drop those markets again and leave them feeling like today's SF landlords?

On the other hand, some destinations like Tahoe probably are good investments no matter which way WFH goes. As I understand it, that was an area that didn't really feel the previous housing crisis in 2008 either. And many buyers from the Bay Area may easily imagine they would hold their new mountain home even if they later move back to the city, whether as a low occupancy vacation home or to try to operate a rental...

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#75

Post by pbourke » Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 7:53 PM UTC

epistasis wrote: post #6

almost_usual wrote: post #3

You’re also living in a prime wildfire area in Truckee. There’s too much fuel in the Sierras as it is, it’ll burn sooner or later.

The picture of a house they show nestled in the trees is incredibly dangerous, incredibly resource intrnsive, and just ecologically unsound. We need to be building massive amounts of housing in city centers to let as many people live in them that would like to. Instead we lock down any new construction in cities, which requires the least amount of infrastructure and environmental damage, and instead let pretty much a…

> We need to be building massive amounts of housing in city centers to let as many people live in them that would like to.

All else being equal, Americans will choose to live in a detached house on a 1/2 acre lot with an SUV or pickup in the driveway.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#76

Post by rsynnott » Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 7:55 PM UTC

pbourke wrote: post #71

rsynnott wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a lot of people _are_ assuming that the dynamic has permanently changed, and that WFH will be the default, or at least way more common, in their sector from now on. I suspect that they may be incorrect, here.

> I suspect that they may be incorrect, here. I’m curious why you’d think that? It will be over a year before many workplaces are in a position to end the WFH policies. A year is a long time, enough for cultures to adapt. * edit: I mean over a year from the start of WFH policies in March-April of this year.

This assumes that wfh actually works out well for productivity, employee retention, etc. I don’t think it’s clear that that’s the case.

I may be biased; personally I can’t wait to be back in an office.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#77

Post by bobthepanda » Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 8:02 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #27

nimish wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wild that landlords having to deal with their investments losing value and having to negotiate a commercial transaction is "grim" The market dynamics shifted. No big deal.

You have the same attitude when prices go up? “Wild that tenants having to deal with rent going up and having to negotiate a commercial transaction is “grim””. “The market dynamics shifted. No big deal.”

The landlords have used this kind of rhetoric for years, but now it's bad because landlords have gotten entitled to a market on the up and up.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#78

Post by Merrill » Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 8:08 PM UTC

The disassociation of how you make your living and where you live will have interesting long-term social consequences.

Until recently, most people have had to live where they made their living. Farmers lived on farms. Workers lived near mines, mills, factories and offices in which they worked. Even rich people lived in the cities where their businesses and investments were located, at least until the late 1800s when rail commuting to nearby suburbs allowed them to live in more pleasant surroundings. Even so, the wealthy continued to identify with their cities, participated in civic life, indulged in philanthropy, and were reasonably concerned about their city's quality of life.

In the 1960s, jet travel became cheap and frequent for the wealthy. The really rich became detached from the cities and moved to enclaves of wealth in Newport, Carmel, Palm Springs, Palm Beach, etc. from which they could reach cities occasionally, but from which they could safely ignore urban problems. The urban cores declined, in part, because the wealthy no longer cared.

Information technology enables a whole new slice of the population to detach where they live from where they make their living. Their political and social interests will shift to where they live, and they will abandon where they make their living.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#79

Post by 205guy » Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 8:29 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #70

dcolkitt wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t this a case of the expectation creating the outcome. If half the employees bought homes outside commuting distance, what can the company do? Seems like they’ll be forced to adopt remote first whether they like it or not. No company is going to be able to lay off half its workforce. The labor market for software engineers and most other professionals is still extremely tight. Until it’s otherwise, the workers ar…

It depends on the roll obviously, but I can see a company saying “hey everyone, 6 months from now we’ll all be in the office” and then deal with those who push back on an individual basis. High performer who is hard to replace? Sure, we’ll be flexible. Low performer with 10 people lined up, ready to take the role? If you’re not in the office on Monday, you’ll be fired. And the thing that gets me is some of the boomin…

> Tahoe for example. If you can’t work from home, it’s unlikely you’ll find another job locally.

That’s the situation now, but after 1000 remote tech workers move there and 500 decide not to go back to the city, 100 might pivot to lifestyle startups that employ 100-200 more. And now you have a little incubator that wasn’t there before and might grow a nice little self-sustaining eco-system. And once it gets going, it can always rely on the nice geography to attract some talent, even if the cities become huge employment centers again.

In a way, I think this would be a very healthy development for these tourist towns. They are too dependent on tourism, and even when they were prosperous before Covid, they had issues with high property prices (due to empty second homes and Airbnb) and low service wages. Having a healthy middle class independent of tourism would be great for their economic stability.

Re: Zoom towns and the new housing market for the two Americas

#80

Post by fleshdaddy » Sat, Sep 12, 2020, 8:33 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #65

8note wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there's a difference between needing a roof over your head vs needing to protect your investment portfolio.

Well, my landlord in SF was an old lady whose husband died suddenly at 50 and their retirement portfolio was their apartment building. But screw her right?

I'm sorry but most Americans retirement portfolio isn't an apartment complex in the most expensive city in the country. I'll find a bit more sympathy for them.