But I can also think of reasons why these RCTs don't quite close-the-book on Vitamin-D as much as this author suggests. Looking more-closely at the 'VALID' 25,000-subject RCT that's highlighted:
* the dose of 2000IU is still small compared to the recommendation of other groups, such as the UCSD/Creighton group that highlighted a massive calculation error in the original RDA determination, that suggests the RDA should be 7000IU (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/03/150317122458.h...)
* by only enrolling people over 50yo/55yo, the possibility that Vitamin D levels earlier-in-life are important isn't tested
* by eliminating people with any history of cancer/cardiovascular disease, the potential that Vitamin D helps specifically among people whose risk is so high these diseases turn up by their 40s can't be detected. (I'm assuming the 'history' screened for was just the patient themself; if they also screened out family history, that'd be an even bigger limitation.)
* a ~5y followup can't detect effects at 10y or beyond
* Vitamin D's effects are somewhat like, & linked-to, hormones - and indeed there's some indication it should be taken in the AM, rather than before bed, to avoid mild sleep disruption. I don't see any indication as to when the VITAL study participants were coached to take their calendar-packs. Similarly, natural Vitamin D levels vary seasonally. What if unnatural timing (within the day or the year) changes the mix of effects that more natural pulsing would achieve?
Also, the VITAL study did observe "a possible vitamin D–associated benefit with regard to the incidence of cancer among black participants".
So: a great study, in many respects, but still leaves untested lots of plausible ways Vitamin-D supplementation could theoretically help - in higher doses, the younger, the already-sick, during a respiratory pandemic, etc.