The Lancet: World population projections by 2100

For me this stood out: "The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were India (1·09 billion [0·72–1·71], Nigeria (791 million [594–1056]), China (732 million [456–1499]), the USA (336 million [248–456]), and Pakistan (248 million [151–427])."

The big surprise being China,of-course. A drastic decrease projected in the coming 80 years.Should have policy consequences as well, I would think.

Re: The Lancet: World population projections by 2100

#5

Post by Someone » Sat, Sep 05, 2020, 6:32 AM UTC

vmurthy wrote: post #4

For me this stood out: "The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were India (1·09 billion [0·72–1·71], Nigeria (791 million [594–1056]), China (732 million [456–1499]), the USA (336 million [248–456]), and Pakistan (248 million [151–427])." The big surprise being China,of-course. A drastic decrease projected in the coming 80 years.Should have policy consequences as well, I would think.

China’s predicted population decrease is a logical consequence of its one child policy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy)

If you compare https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/1980/ with https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2020/, you see how drastic its effect on China’s population pyramid was. Drastically fewer kids means fewer parents 20-30 years later.

(There also is a bit of an effect of richer people having fewer children, but for China, that effect is relatively small)

Re: The Lancet: World population projections by 2100

#6

Post by Oricle » Sat, Sep 05, 2020, 6:36 AM UTC

Just don't mention all whites will be extinct

Re: The Lancet: World population projections by 2100

#7

Post by snovv_crash » Sat, Sep 05, 2020, 7:20 AM UTC

Someone wrote: post #5

vmurthy wrote: post #4

For me this stood out: "The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were India (1·09 billion [0·72–1·71], Nigeria (791 million [594–1056]), China (732 million [456–1499]), the USA (336 million [248–456]), and Pakistan (248 million [151–427])." The big surprise being China,of-course. A drastic decrease projected in the coming 80 years.Should have policy consequences as well, I would think.

China’s predicted population decrease is a logical consequence of its one child policy ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy ) If you compare https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/1980/ with https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2020/ , you see how drastic its effect on China’s population pyramid was. Drastically fewer kids means fewer parents 20-30 years later. (There also is a bit of an effect of ric…

Added to this, their economy has boomed due to not having to invest in future generations. At some point of course these chickens will come home to roost when the current population hump gets to an age where they retire, but for a good 20 years it can be a massive economic boon.

Re: The Lancet: World population projections by 2100

#8

Post by GlennS » Sat, Sep 05, 2020, 7:29 AM UTC

Someone wrote: post #5

vmurthy wrote: post #4

For me this stood out: "The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were India (1·09 billion [0·72–1·71], Nigeria (791 million [594–1056]), China (732 million [456–1499]), the USA (336 million [248–456]), and Pakistan (248 million [151–427])." The big surprise being China,of-course. A drastic decrease projected in the coming 80 years.Should have policy consequences as well, I would think.

China’s predicted population decrease is a logical consequence of its one child policy ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy ) If you compare https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/1980/ with https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2020/ , you see how drastic its effect on China’s population pyramid was. Drastically fewer kids means fewer parents 20-30 years later. (There also is a bit of an effect of ric…

Really interesting website, thanks for linking that.

Re: The Lancet: World population projections by 2100

#9

Post by shalmanese » Sat, Sep 05, 2020, 7:49 AM UTC

Someone wrote: post #5

vmurthy wrote: post #4

For me this stood out: "The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were India (1·09 billion [0·72–1·71], Nigeria (791 million [594–1056]), China (732 million [456–1499]), the USA (336 million [248–456]), and Pakistan (248 million [151–427])." The big surprise being China,of-course. A drastic decrease projected in the coming 80 years.Should have policy consequences as well, I would think.

China’s predicted population decrease is a logical consequence of its one child policy ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy ) If you compare https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/1980/ with https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2020/ , you see how drastic its effect on China’s population pyramid was. Drastically fewer kids means fewer parents 20-30 years later. (There also is a bit of an effect of ric…

Population Pyramid estimates the 2100 population of China to be 1.06B which is 45% higher than the 732M figure estimated by Lancet.

1B feels like a lot more realistic estimate than 750M.

Re: The Lancet: World population projections by 2100

#10

Post by ggm » Sat, Sep 05, 2020, 8:59 AM UTC

It stands out that a worldwide event like coved won't alter the trajectory as far as I an see, on these trends. If i missed something long lasting on the natural reproductive rates of these economies id love to know.

Whats strongly causative of the decline is literacy, especially women's literacy, and women's body autonomy and reproductive rights.

US opposition to WHO and to funding contraception and abortion is (thankfully) being counterbalanced by the gates foundations work, and other funding sources. A pox on the religious right, and American foreign policy.