For me, this interview was disappointingly short. I'd love to see Eric Weinstein or someone similar do a long form interview with PG.
But Eric Weinstein asks of his guests to practice difficult words listeners have to find in a dictionary. He practices difficult words with an ANKI spaced repetition system himself. What I find intriguing is that Peter Thiel has yet to appear on the Joe Rogan podcast while he clearly bankrolled that operation.
Interview with Paul Graham
51–60 of 181 posts
Re: Interview with Paul Graham
#52Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Then I saw his recent tweets and especially the essay about wealth tax, I was a bit disappointed. Why? He points out [the non obvious to many fact] that wealth tax kills compounding. And this is something to seriously consider.
He points out that a wealth tax compounds. It doesn't kill compounding, it just diminishes its effect in the same way that the TER for a mutual fund does.
And that's a rather misleading way to characterize the effects of wealth tax. When you think of compounding you think of compound interest, where compounding means the actual interest ends up being MORE than what you might expect (numYears * annualInteredtRate * baseAmount) because baseAmount grows every year due to compounding.
On the other hand, the wealth tax "compounding" works in the opposite direction, because baseAmount is reduced, not increased, by the tax over time, so the "compounding" aspect of the tax actually REDUCES the amount of tax you pay compared to a baseline where you didn't consider this effect, i.e. (numYears * annualTaxRate * baseAmount)
I don't think this choice of words was accidental on PG's part, as he chooses his words very carefully. He just chose to weaponize his words this time to push his political opinion, to make wealth tax seem worse than it is, which is something I've sadly come to expect from his twitter, but never noticed leaking into his essays before.
Re: Interview with Paul Graham
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
Interesting—-do you have a source for either of these statements?
I'm going to find one for the first. It is in this https://youtu.be/_b4qKv1Ctv8?t=8071 The second one is pretty obvious, Three former PayPal employees—Chad Hurley, Steve Chen, and Jawed Karim—created the service in February 2005. With what we know of Peter Thiel I think the burden of proof is on you that he doesn't make use of the knowledge he has on specific network work effects of youtube. Just like he installed Do…
Maybe people are intimidated by his intelligence and contrarian stances?
Re: Interview with Paul Graham
#54Earlier quoted context omitted.
Interesting—-do you have a source for either of these statements?
I'm going to find one for the first. It is in this https://youtu.be/_b4qKv1Ctv8?t=8071 The second one is pretty obvious, Three former PayPal employees—Chad Hurley, Steve Chen, and Jawed Karim—created the service in February 2005. With what we know of Peter Thiel I think the burden of proof is on you that he doesn't make use of the knowledge he has on specific network work effects of youtube. Just like he installed Do…
Re: Interview with Paul Graham
#55Once upon a time I saw pg as a guy that was leveling the playing field, and I think he succeeded because of that. As another comment pointed out, concerning his writing about the wealth tax, I think he's lost sight of the fact that's there's more wealth to be created that's outside the scope of what the wealth advisors for the uber-wealthy are familiar with.
Re: Interview with Paul Graham
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's dis-incentivizing wealth creation in general and taking ownership away from people that build companies. There's a compelling argument that growth (that accounts for human rights and protecting the environment) is the best way to help the most people the fastest: https://press.stripe.com/#stubborn-attachments . Policy that dis-incentivizes wealth creation creates perverse incentives that limit growth. We're bett…
I agree with most of your comment and it's making me rethink some of my opinions. But is this accurate: > Wealth creation isn't zero-sum, just because someone builds a business and creates wealth doesn't mean they're taking it from others. I'd say that's exactly the model that some of the startups are taking. Uber and Lyft come to mind. A part of their wealth is coming from the pockets of workers who have to work for…
By wealth creation I mean something like this: you buy parts to build a house on land you've purchased. After you're done building the value of that house is worth more than the sum of its parts. The time you invested created something more valuable without taking anything from someone else (you now have more 'wealth' than you had when you had some land and a pile of house parts). This doesn't take wealth away from anyone else, but if you were to sell someone may choose to buy your newly created house when they might have otherwise chosen the neighbors house which is slightly older. That's a bit of a different thing.
There are definitely some industries where a lot of the cut-throat nature is a result of stagnation and groups fighting each other over what profit is available via competition. (Thiel talks about this in Zero to One and why businesses in competitive markets are a bad idea).
That said, the uber/lyft example is interesting.
Some points:
- Prior to uber and lyft a lot more people would just drive drunk, taxis were unreliable and expensive - if you had to take a taxi somewhere people would just opt not to go.
- Taxi companies were pretty corrupt and (at least in NYC) relied on a medallion model that expressly limited growth and empowered organized crime groups. This led to a worse experience for everyone except the medallion holders who could extort drivers and riders (while providing bad service).
- A lot of people that drive for uber and lyft were not driving for taxis before, the market maker effect of uber/lyft and people that need a ride created a much larger market for people hiring taxis. This creates wealth - both for the drivers that did not have that ability before and for the riders that would not have previously bothered to call a taxi (and clearly all the people that work at uber/lyft generally). It might also have knock on effects where people go out more which might benefit local businesses more, but that's fairly speculative.
Are there people that get screwed in this? Probably - taxi companies that provided bad/expensive service are not competitive with uber/lyft. A smaller amount of people at those companies that were making more are probably making less. Is that worse for society generally? My personal view is that it's not.
Anyway - on a meta note, I also appreciate the back and forth and engaging with me. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise. I've read a lot about this stuff and have tried really hard to understand the underlying truth away from politics. This is where I've currently landed.
Re: Interview with Paul Graham
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Then I saw his recent tweets and especially the essay about wealth tax, I was a bit disappointed. Why? He points out [the non obvious to many fact] that wealth tax kills compounding. And this is something to seriously consider.
It’s my opinion but that was a very one sided view. And I need to read more on this but I don’t think the way he pointed it out is how anyone is proposing wealth tax.
Re: Interview with Paul Graham
#58> But a few years after it's over, we'll be acting as if [COVID] never happened. We're good at that. I fear this prediction won't come true. There's a great risk that 'health theatre' will join security theatre as a durable if not permanent part of our existence. That years from now, we'll be getting temperatures checked, schools will be shutting down for worse-than-usual influenzas, and so on. I still can't bring an…
> Something made our society irrationally risk-averse Our brains are finely tuned to detect danger. If there isn't any danger, danger will be exaggerated or simply invented. Our society has been very successful at eliminating all sorts of dangers, hence the irrational view of the remaining risk today.
Citation needed
Re: Interview with Paul Graham
#59Honestly I never found PG’s writing that insightful and ANSI Lisp was a bit of a pain to read That doesn’t take away from any of his success, which has been immense (anybody who has made over a billion is obviously amazing and had the ultimate life) but he has become too much of a cult figure in comparison to others in that stratosphere
Re: Interview with Paul Graham
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Something made our society irrationally risk-averse Our brains are finely tuned to detect danger. If there isn't any danger, danger will be exaggerated or simply invented. Our society has been very successful at eliminating all sorts of dangers, hence the irrational view of the remaining risk today.
- If there isn't any danger, danger will be exaggerated or simply invented. Citation needed