Hermann Hauser: ‘It’s in Nvidia’s Interests to Destroy Arm’ • Hacker News Board

Re: Hermann Hauser: ‘It’s in Nvidia’s Interests to Destroy Arm’

#31

Post by Gravityloss » Thu, Sep 03, 2020, 1:01 PM UTC

ethbr0 wrote: post #25

rvz wrote: post #15

The UK is actually the one that has ignored and destroyed ARM (and Imagination Technologies) and it has been compared to 'selling off the crown jewels' [0] to SoftBank which was welcomed by a UK government cabinet minister in 2016 as a 'big vote of confidence in British business.' [1] Actually, SoftBank got ARM at a special Brexit discount. For them, they saw it as the best deal of 2016 and for the UK, you might as w…

Would be curious on any Brits' opinions on if this (failure to support revolutionary technology) happens more there, and if so then why. Recognize biases of hindsight, but it seems like private equity markets in Britain aren't interested in technology at the requisite scale. There's an incredible historical tradition [1], but the majority tend to be either developed with the help of a (1) few angel investors (and the…

I think Paul Graham went to the UK once to try to find technology investors. Once. (Can't find that essay right now.)

Re: Hermann Hauser: ‘It’s in Nvidia’s Interests to Destroy Arm’

#32

Post by ethbr0 » Thu, Sep 03, 2020, 1:04 PM UTC

Gravityloss wrote: post #31

ethbr0 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would be curious on any Brits' opinions on if this (failure to support revolutionary technology) happens more there, and if so then why. Recognize biases of hindsight, but it seems like private equity markets in Britain aren't interested in technology at the requisite scale. There's an incredible historical tradition [1], but the majority tend to be either developed with the help of a (1) few angel investors (and the…

I think Paul Graham went to the UK once to try to find technology investors. Once. (Can't find that essay right now.)

Speaking to something I have little experience with, but 'old, @&$@-you money isn't adventurous' would seem to apply.

Re: Hermann Hauser: ‘It’s in Nvidia’s Interests to Destroy Arm’

#33

Post by SXX » Thu, Sep 03, 2020, 1:10 PM UTC

People who say that Nvidia "gonna destroy ARM" know nothing about Nvidia. All their history Nvidia live on lock-in integrations and for profiting from that they need ARM alive and thriving. A lot of open source folks might hate it, but Nvidia is R&D heavy company. Every year they come up with many new proprietary technologies that help them to keep perceived leadership and also keeps everyone locked-in into their tech.

All these technologies are intentionally built to make them hard to copy for competitors and easy to protect with patent encumbrance, but on the bright side technologies that actually prove to be useful slowly turn into open industry standards. So basically Nvidia invest a lot in niche features and then recoup the costs using their top-notch marketing.

IMHO what people missing about ARM is that on mobile market there are already companies with worse lock-in who don't tend to share their hardware innovations with others at all, e.g Apple. And high-end ARM SOCs market would only benefit if someone finally gonna compete with Apple on more than just marketing.

Re: Hermann Hauser: ‘It’s in Nvidia’s Interests to Destroy Arm’

#34

Post by someperson » Thu, Sep 03, 2020, 1:11 PM UTC

growlist wrote: post #30

ethbr0 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would be curious on any Brits' opinions on if this (failure to support revolutionary technology) happens more there, and if so then why. Recognize biases of hindsight, but it seems like private equity markets in Britain aren't interested in technology at the requisite scale. There's an incredible historical tradition [1], but the majority tend to be either developed with the help of a (1) few angel investors (and the…

I've come to the conclusion that many of the powerful in the UK view the nation primarily as a means for personal gain of one kind of another, and have no particular attachment to the UK's history, culture, and people, indeed, many of them seem to view the English (in particular) with barely disguised contempt.

This statement is meaningful even if you replace UK with US, but the US is still where most of the revolutionary technology comes from

Re: Hermann Hauser: ‘It’s in Nvidia’s Interests to Destroy Arm’

#35

Post by tcldr » Thu, Sep 03, 2020, 1:12 PM UTC

rvz wrote: post #15

The UK is actually the one that has ignored and destroyed ARM (and Imagination Technologies) and it has been compared to 'selling off the crown jewels' [0] to SoftBank which was welcomed by a UK government cabinet minister in 2016 as a 'big vote of confidence in British business.' [1] Actually, SoftBank got ARM at a special Brexit discount. For them, they saw it as the best deal of 2016 and for the UK, you might as w…

I attended a talk in the UK at Google Campus in London by Eric Schmidt. At the end of the talk there was some Q&A and one very apparently angry and frustrated member of the audience asked something along the lines of 'Do you think it's fair for Google and other big American Tech firms to keep buying up innovative and valuable British and European companies!?' Eric Schmidt immediately replied 'Well if you don't want us to buy them, then don't sell them!'

It seems we're yet to learn that there's a possibility to go all the way.

Re: Hermann Hauser: ‘It’s in Nvidia’s Interests to Destroy Arm’

#36

Post by someperson » Thu, Sep 03, 2020, 1:16 PM UTC

ethbr0 wrote: post #27

imtringued wrote: post #23

It's this short sighted argument. If Nvidia "destroys" Arm then they just end up flushing a billion dollars down the drain. ARM's is important because it's what everyone uses. Once Nvidia destroys it nobody will use it and therefore Nvidia will gain no leverage. If anything, once Nvidia buys ARM it will have to keep it alive.

The best play would be to take the Intel approach: run ARM independently, and just build best-in-class integration with Nvidia GPUs / features. Substantial anti-trust concerns are avoided, while building exactly the moat you want: no competitor can afford to compete with the level of integration investment.

Why can't NVidia achieve this without spending tens of billions buying ARM?

Re: Hermann Hauser: ‘It’s in Nvidia’s Interests to Destroy Arm’

#37

Post by stefan_ » Thu, Sep 03, 2020, 1:17 PM UTC

Hauser seems like a fanatical UK nationalist nutjob who has lost sight of the simple reality that ARMs growth chances are looking very bleak. Everyone who wants one already has a perpetual license, all their licensees are better at improving the processors and extracting value than ARM has been.

Re: Hermann Hauser: ‘It’s in Nvidia’s Interests to Destroy Arm’

#38

Post by Nursie » Thu, Sep 03, 2020, 1:40 PM UTC

Gravityloss wrote: post #31

ethbr0 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would be curious on any Brits' opinions on if this (failure to support revolutionary technology) happens more there, and if so then why. Recognize biases of hindsight, but it seems like private equity markets in Britain aren't interested in technology at the requisite scale. There's an incredible historical tradition [1], but the majority tend to be either developed with the help of a (1) few angel investors (and the…

I think Paul Graham went to the UK once to try to find technology investors. Once. (Can't find that essay right now.)

Comparatively, venture capital of the silicon valley sort is hard to come by, from what I can see.

There is also a weird preoccupation with the London startup scene; politicians decided they were going to nurture it and help fund things there. Which is fine, but they ignored the Cambridge area which is where a lot of the actual innovative tech in the UK gets developed, in favour of (effectively) a bunch of cool-sounding app vendors.

Re: Hermann Hauser: ‘It’s in Nvidia’s Interests to Destroy Arm’

#39

Post by TorKlingberg » Thu, Sep 03, 2020, 1:45 PM UTC

Gravityloss wrote: post #31

ethbr0 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would be curious on any Brits' opinions on if this (failure to support revolutionary technology) happens more there, and if so then why. Recognize biases of hindsight, but it seems like private equity markets in Britain aren't interested in technology at the requisite scale. There's an incredible historical tradition [1], but the majority tend to be either developed with the help of a (1) few angel investors (and the…

I think Paul Graham went to the UK once to try to find technology investors. Once. (Can't find that essay right now.)

Now pg lives in England. He was born here though, so I guess it's for family reasons.

Re: Hermann Hauser: ‘It’s in Nvidia’s Interests to Destroy Arm’

#40

Post by ddingus » Thu, Sep 03, 2020, 1:50 PM UTC

someperson wrote: post #36

ethbr0 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best play would be to take the Intel approach: run ARM independently, and just build best-in-class integration with Nvidia GPUs / features. Substantial anti-trust concerns are avoided, while building exactly the moat you want: no competitor can afford to compete with the level of integration investment.

Why can't NVidia achieve this without spending tens of billions buying ARM?

They can, as can others.

Having some advantage may be worth the purchase.