Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok • Hacker News Board

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#311

Post by thrwway34 » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 8:44 PM UTC

krick wrote: post #246

toxik wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes and then Occam’s razor. Your explanation requires too many assumptions, and fails to explain other facts of history - such as other people having been poisoned, or Putin et al doing other wildly unpopular things just for the sake of it. Russia habitually invades the Norwegian, Danish and Swedish waters _just to show that they can_. Your reasoning boils down to “if you can think of an explanation, it’s wrong”. The…

I didn't really make any wild assumptions. Your explanation on the other hand is basically "it's Russia, because I don't like Russia" (without really acknowledging that there is no single "Russia" that kills ex-spies and invades Danish waters: there are multiple different people and agencies, with different intentions and modes of operation) which is exactly what would anybody trying to set up "Russia" (or anybody) w…

And your explanation on the other hand is basically "it's not Russia, because I like Putin".

There were dozens of illogical things Russian government did for decades, and killing opponents (or just innocent people) is among them.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#312

Post by xorcist » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 8:45 PM UTC

actuator wrote: post #198

sam_lowry_ wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By matching what happens in Belarus now to Russia. It was long believed, even in US, that Lukashenka had the majority. In reality, he faked all elections since 1994. Once his deeds became hard to ignore even for pathetically peaceful Belarusians, all the population turned against him. Gosh, the exit poll in my voting station recorded only one vote for Lukashenka among 358. I was there watching the exit poll for a cou…

The election results had him at ~80% votes, if he is really rigging elections, would he really go for such unrealistic numbers. If I have just 40% support, I might go for showing it to be about 55%, so that it at least looks close. I think he did rig elections but he might have had majority already, which makes his numbers look so unrealistic or he is just plain stupid to not even rig elections to make them look beli…

> would he really go for such unrealistic numbers

That part is pretty well established by now.

Coincidentally, he established again a level of support a couple percentage points above Putin, who received "just" 78% last election.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#313

Post by xorcist » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 8:47 PM UTC

dhosek wrote: post #252

actuator wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At that point, why even a facade. :)

That's how these things have always worked. Autocratic leaders like to have "elections" that they win by unrealistic margins.

I can see how that might be a power trip.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#314

Post by relaxing » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 8:48 PM UTC

WhompingWindows wrote: post #220

actionscripted wrote: post #91

If you ever wonder about the extent of Russia's online efforts consider that the comments on this HN thread might be part of things. Not saying anything in here is good/bad/other but you rarely see this level of flagged and down-voted comments in a HN thread.

Just wondering, do you think it more likely that: A) Russian-sympathetic people post their own sincere views B) Russians for hire in Russia are brought in on all forums/social media C) Russians use bots or non-Russian farms for the B)'s purpose?

All of the above? All are well documented.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#315

Post by relaxing » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 8:54 PM UTC

thelastname wrote: post #305

But why would them choose Novichok? They are the only one having binary nerve gas, there is no possible deniability.

They want it known who did it. Because it sends a message to others.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#316

Post by scottlocklin » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 8:55 PM UTC

lightgreen wrote: post #295

scottlocklin wrote: post #274

There was reasonable reason to believe Berezovsky was responsible for the Litvinenko poisoning; it's not inconceivable something like that is going on here with some other oligarch Nalvany pissed off; he is a corruption reformer more than anything else. Since the BBC is a propaganda organ rather than a news service, they are singularly unlikely to present us with any of the other potential candidates, but I could pro…

> There was reasonable reason to believe Berezovsky was responsible for the Litvinenko poisoning No there were no reasons to believe Berezovsky poisoned Litvinenko. Litvinenko was the one who revealed attempt to kill Berezovsky. Berezovsky and Litvinenko worked together against Putin. There was no motive for Berezovsky to kill Litvinenko. In addition to that: Berezovsky was far less powerful when Litvinenko was poiso…

Yeah thanks a lot for the completely citation and content free comment, Mr 77th brigade or whoever you are.

The evidence: Litvinenko and Berezovsky had a falling out, and Litvineko's newest scheme was to run blackmail on various russian oligarchs, possibly including Berezovsky[0]. Berezovsky was no angel and is well, nobody ever proved it, but was strongly suspected to have assassinated an unauthorized biographer[1] (whose book "Godfather of the Kremlin" everyone should read to understand recent Russian history). Lots of people besides me have suggested as much. [2] Berezovsky certainly attempted to use the Litvineko death to his propaganda advantage; he could as easily have done it himself, or suggested such actions might be useful to some other oligarch in Litvineko's sights.

I'm well aware of who British propaganda and Litvinenko blamed: I just don't uncritically accept these assertions. The possibility is certainly there that the standard assertion here is baloney, just as the possibility the Novichok tale is not entirely accurate. Western media blames Putin and "the Russians" for everything from Donald Trump to when the foam goes flat in their coffee; if Russian intelligence were so all fired competent, you'd think they'd have been able to take over America, steal some of its industries or like do some obvious projections of power that I don't need Rachel Maddow tier conspiracy theories to believe. Or at least, you know, conquer Kharkiv or something.

[0]https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2006/dec/03/russia.world

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Klebnikov

[2] https://original.antiwar.com/justin/2010/12/13/wikileaks-con...

http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2006/12/04/alexander-litv...

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#317

Post by xorcist » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 9:01 PM UTC

dang wrote: post #256

actionscripted wrote: post #91

If you ever wonder about the extent of Russia's online efforts consider that the comments on this HN thread might be part of things. Not saying anything in here is good/bad/other but you rarely see this level of flagged and down-voted comments in a HN thread.

This comment breaks the site guidelines: " Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about abuse, email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll look at the data. " https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html Sinister insinuation about astroturfing is the internet's favorite pastime. The overwhelming…

Astroturfing doesn't exist?

Are all companies selling such services charlatans?

Not sure I buy it. It's well established that you can buy followers, reviews, positive comments and even stories on all large public platforms, and they are quite public about it.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#318

Post by rosywoozlechan » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 9:21 PM UTC

siliconvalley1 wrote: post #68

rosywoozlechan wrote: post #40

I wouldn't be so quick to point the finger at Putin or a government conspiracy personally. There are a lot of powerful billionaires in Russia who exist thanks to Putin and it seems plausible that one of them, given their vested interest in keeping their patron in charge, might have poisoned the man.

And that billionaire just happens to have access to a Russian Military Chemical Weapon?

Given the level of corruption in Russia...yes?

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#319

Post by tanyatik » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 9:22 PM UTC

lightgreen wrote: post #296

itroot wrote: post #294

Guy from Russia here. Not an expert, but I feel the pain when my country looks so negative in the news. First, I wish Alexey fast recovery. Second, Alexey wasn't a popular politic figure in past time, I believe that his peak of popularity was in 2013-2015. Third, I think no one here is actually benefiting from this tragic event... the whole story just seems quite strange. Frankly, there a lot of more simple approache…

> I feel the pain when my country looks so negative in the news. I'm from Russia, and I feel pain when people mix my country and my my country corrupt and criminal government.

> I'm from Russia, and I feel pain when people mix my country and my my country corrupt and criminal government

+1000 - it often feels that people geniunely don't see any difference.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#320

Post by nullifidian » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 9:41 PM UTC

itroot wrote: post #294

Guy from Russia here. Not an expert, but I feel the pain when my country looks so negative in the news. First, I wish Alexey fast recovery. Second, Alexey wasn't a popular politic figure in past time, I believe that his peak of popularity was in 2013-2015. Third, I think no one here is actually benefiting from this tragic event... the whole story just seems quite strange. Frankly, there a lot of more simple approache…

>Alexey wasn't a popular politic figure in past time, I believe that his peak of popularity was in 2013-2015.

He was banned from being a politician. Banned from media with any kind of reach, banned from elections. And we don't know how popular or not he actually is -- in a country like Russia accuracy of polling, any kind of statistics that is threatening to the dictator is one of the first victims.

>Third, I think no one here is actually benefiting from this tragic event...

A ridiculous statement. It's a signal to those who oppose Putin. In the light of what is happening in Belarus the signal is pretty clear -- Putin won't tolerate any real opposition, and he will not allow the situation to deteriorate to the level where he's actually threatened. "If you are willing to oppose Putin we will poison you with invisible deadly substances, and state doctors whose careers completely depend on their superiors won't treat you" is what it conveys. The goal is to have a chilling effect on the opposition's activities.

>simple approaches

Simple approaches are not as good for conveying a message. Using Chechens from Kadyrov's personal guard(in case of Nemtsov), expensive and hard to obtain isotope(in case of Litvinenko), or chemical warfare agents (in cases of Kara-Murza, Verzilov, Navalny, Skripal) indicates that's it's a state poisoning/killing, something only the state can do. It asks those who are not yet poisoned a question "Are you willing to fight the state/regime who's willing to kill you, make you disabled?

It's rather surprising that the regime doesn't yet target family members. Although I'm not completely up to date on the subject. Maybe it already does.