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Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

bbc.com

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Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#221

Post by Udik »

ogogmad wrote: post #54
osipov wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love it how the mainstream media gets to decide what's a conspiracy theory and what's not.

The attempted murder of Sergei Skripal by Russia is a conspiracy theory? Who else would poison him with a nerve agent? Who else would have the motive? Who'd have access to such an agent?

What would be Putin's motive in the case of Skripal? And if he really wanted him dead, there would have been a thousand other ways to do it without basically writing "Russia" with a spray can all over the body.

To be clear, I'm not saying he didn't do it. Just that it's not as completely obvious as it seems. Why would Putin and Russia lose billions (because that's the economic impact of the West's reaction) to kill an ex spy in the most damning way?

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#222

Post by HeadsUpHigh »

caiobegotti wrote: post #213

I'm just eager for some international stability as the next person and I don't want the Cold War back (and I'd hope for a more Europe'zed world to be honest) but it's incredible how much reach of Russia and China tentacles the US allows these days. As a third-world citizen I'm very much surprised the US is basically on its knees hoping the two nations don't punch too hard.

I wouldn't say the US is on it's knees, it just doesn't have the share of world power it used to have.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#223

Post by readarticle »

nafizh wrote: post #155

There will never be a power vacuum in world politics. If it’s not going to be US, it’s going to be China and/or Russia. I have been thinking quite a lot how will that world look. Will it be better or worse?

A power vacuum can be filled with plenty of players, better or worse will probably be subjective and localized.

I wouldn’t want to be a Baltic or small Arab nation in general during the transition, but, for example, France & Turkey are already starting to enjoy the new room for activities.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#224

Post by BrianOnHN »

caiobegotti wrote: post #213

I'm just eager for some international stability as the next person and I don't want the Cold War back (and I'd hope for a more Europe'zed world to be honest) but it's incredible how much reach of Russia and China tentacles the US allows these days. As a third-world citizen I'm very much surprised the US is basically on its knees hoping the two nations don't punch too hard.

As an American, I agree with you.

In my experience, the US is facing an existential crisis stemming from a loud segment of the population, emboldened by Trump, that believes and promotes propaganda in a way that I thought was reserved for third world dictatorships.

I'm terrified of the day after the elections. If the left wins then, we risk retaliation from the gun-and-violence-glorifying right. If the right wins, then we still face violence from the same group at the inevitable mass protests.

Edit: the fact that the president can promote essentially unheard of networks, with an already questionable record, as "real news" (OANN, and Breitbart before that) demonstrates the ease of which the propagandists are operating. Once again, something that I would have considered unheard of, even in a third world country.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#225

Post by noctune »

actuator wrote: post #198
sam_lowry_ wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By matching what happens in Belarus now to Russia. It was long believed, even in US, that Lukashenka had the majority. In reality, he faked all elections since 1994. Once his deeds became hard to ignore even for pathetically peaceful Belarusians, all the population turned against him. Gosh, the exit poll in my voting station recorded only one vote for Lukashenka among 358. I was there watching the exit poll for a cou…

The election results had him at ~80% votes, if he is really rigging elections, would he really go for such unrealistic numbers. If I have just 40% support, I might go for showing it to be about 55%, so that it at least looks close. I think he did rig elections but he might have had majority already, which makes his numbers look so unrealistic or he is just plain stupid to not even rig elections to make them look beli…

>if he is really rigging elections, would he really go for such unrealistic number

You are assuming someone has an overview of the rigging being done. It's probably more chaotic than that. If 1000 different people are chucking opponents' votes into furnaces, how do you coordinate hitting that number?

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#226

Post by Udik »

mprovost wrote: post #95
sneak wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of the evidence that it was Russia is entirely circumstantial, if we're being strictly accurate here, which is... convenient. On the other hand, exactly zero other groups seem to be using those nerve agents to assassinate people, so it's a great calling card if they wish to discourage others from following in the victims' footsteps.

They know who did it - two colonels and a general in the GRU. I suppose you can say it was circumstantial in that nobody caught them actually putting the poison on their doorknob, but it's pretty well accepted that 3 officers from Russian intelligence travelled to Salisbury using false identification on the day of the poisoning and then left the country. Unless you believe their explanation that they were there to "s…

But why the hell did they do it?

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#227

Post by Udik »

ceejayoz wrote: post #109
bigdict wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is they?

A Russian defector, poisoned by Russian intelligence agents using a chemical only the Russians have? Who do you think?

> using a chemical only the Russians have?

This is obviously not true.

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#228

Post by nomadnomad »

Putin's approval rating is actually pretty high even when measured by NGOs sponsored by the "West". You'll be surprised, but it is quoted to be 60% in July 2020. [1]

And while it is possible to blame Putin for this Navalny's incident, he isn't the only one with motive/opportunity. It is actually very sad that some HN readers sometimes have a strong tendency to blame Trump/Putin/Another for Everything. I get that they are very unpopular figures among liberals/progressives, but let's at least try to pretend to be more objective for a minute. How about maybe for a second or a little longer just think about it before proclaiming that clearly it's Putin? How about being maybe a little bit more self-critical for a minute? Maybe you don't have all the information and all the facts yet? Or maybe some facts aren't facts yet, and maybe there is a massive propaganda campaign (BBC/CNN/etc.)?

In my opinion, there is an alternate hypothesis. Putin is trying to finish building the last 6 km of the gas pipeline to Germany. It has been blocked by US sanctions for a long time. This incident adds fuel to the fire, and conveniently allows the US to impose more sanctions, and bend Germans (who actually want that pipeline because it is beneficial for Germany) to their will.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_image_of_Vladimir_Putin

Re: Russia opposition leader poisoned with Novichok

#230

Post by nomadnomad »

sam_lowry_ wrote: post #152
ogogmad wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think many Russian people, especially those who watch or read mainly Russian news, hold such views with complete sincerity. The internal propaganda is quite effective.

The events in Belarus recently demonstrated that you are wrong. I ran a small (1 mln pageviews/month) online Russian-speaking community since 2003 and since 2014, my main preoccupation are Kremlin bots. The population in Russia is mostly anti-Putin, they just do not speak up, because the state made sure they feel isolated.

That is not true.

Putin's approval rating is actually pretty high even when measured by NGOs sponsored by the "West". You'll be surprised, but it is quoted to be 60% in July 2020. [1]

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_image_of_Vladimir_Putin

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