What the world can learn from the UK's A-level grading fiasco • Hacker News Board

Re: What the world can learn from the UK's A-level grading fiasco

#31

Post by tonyedgecombe » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 9:59 AM UTC

bengillies wrote: post #25

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which can be explained by teachers assessments being too optimistic. Now we have reverted to that you can see the results, grade inflation. Of course students complained, I would if I didn't get the grades I was hoping for. That doesn't mean the government has to cave in and pretend everybody is a winner.

> Which can be explained by teachers assessments being too optimistic This can also be explained by teachers assessments being an accurate representation of students ability, but students traditionally not faring as well in exams as their ability would suggest due to exam taking being an additional unrelated skill. fwiw though, you only need to look at some of the outliers to see that the algorithm failed. It's all v…

> fwiw though, you only need to look at some of the outliers to see that the algorithm failed.

I'm not arguing it's perfect, I'm just saying what we have now is worse in the aggregate. If you inflate so many grades then the grades become meaningless. You have devalued the work of the high achieving students.

Re: What the world can learn from the UK's A-level grading fiasco

#32

Post by Tarq0n » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 9:59 AM UTC

_0o6v wrote: post #26

Having worked with engineers and software managers in the UK Government, it doesn't surprise me that this was such a fuckup. The solution would have been not to completely close schools in the first place - there was no evidence that children were particularly susceptible to COVID or at risk then, and there's lots of evidence now that they aren't. Exams could well have taken place as normal - exam halls are, by defin…

The children might not be at risk themselves but their parents/grandparents are, and kids do spread the virus.

Re: What the world can learn from the UK's A-level grading fiasco

#33

Post by makomk » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 10:02 AM UTC

_0o6v wrote: post #26

Having worked with engineers and software managers in the UK Government, it doesn't surprise me that this was such a fuckup. The solution would have been not to completely close schools in the first place - there was no evidence that children were particularly susceptible to COVID or at risk then, and there's lots of evidence now that they aren't. Exams could well have taken place as normal - exam halls are, by defin…

Not closing schools was the government's preferred option for exactly the reason you point out. Unfortunately, the teachers' unions had different views on the matter and it's rather difficult to keep schools open without teachers, especially when they can easily just carry out a mass sick-out. Exam halls are probably a bit of a transmission risk though since they involve a bunch of people who wouldn't normally mix sitting in the same room sharing the same air for a few hours.

Re: What the world can learn from the UK's A-level grading fiasco

#34

Post by throwaway287391 » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 10:07 AM UTC

makomk wrote: post #18

In reality, I think this fiasco has more to do with politics than algorithms. One of the big problems is that the alternatives had downsides which were largely glossed over for political reasons - for example the university growth cap isn't just an arbitrary creation, it exists to stop more prestigious universities siphoning off a disproportionate share of students and leaving less prestigious ones in deep trouble an…

> the university growth cap isn't just an arbitrary creation, it exists to stop more prestigious universities siphoning off a disproportionate share of students and leaving less prestigious ones in deep trouble and this seems likely to happen now.

I've never understood this UK policy personally. In the US there are no such caps and yet less-than-top-tier universities have had no trouble attracting plenty of students. Top tier US universities (e.g. Harvard), with gigantic endowments of tens of billions of dollars in some cases, could easily afford to expand their student bodies two-fold or probably even ten-fold, and yet they don't, despite having no regulations stopping them from doing so. These prestigious universities apparently feel more than enough market pressure not to expand very much, as they feel (rightly or not) that their prestige would take a hit by doing so. I don't understand what the point of creating additional regulatory pressure on top of this would be when e.g. Harvard expanding their student body could easily be a very positive life-changing event for so many students.

Re: What the world can learn from the UK's A-level grading fiasco

#35

Post by tonyedgecombe » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 10:07 AM UTC

londons_explore wrote: post #20

nicoburns wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There isn't really any fairer way that doesn't lead to grade inflation when there is an element of dishonesty/optimism on the part of teachers. IMO it's much better just to swallow the grade inflation for a year. It will naturally reset itself next year (when exams will be sat again), and the negative effect from it are pretty minimal. The algorithm is based on the assumption that performance of successive school y…

> IMO it's much better just to swallow the grade inflation for a year. When hiring, I'll be crossing off any qualifications earned in 2020. As well as the results being 'fake', the actual learning was in most cases not being done because the students knew they could chill at home and not learn. Sure, some students were studying, but as an employer I don't want to take that risk. Would you want your doctor to be the o…

>Would you want your doctor to be the one who messed around on TikTok for the whole year of his final exams?

Well they still have six years of medical school to get through. Perhaps the dropout rate for that will be higher.

Re: What the world can learn from the UK's A-level grading fiasco

#36

Post by hahno » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 10:11 AM UTC

londons_explore wrote: post #20

nicoburns wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There isn't really any fairer way that doesn't lead to grade inflation when there is an element of dishonesty/optimism on the part of teachers. IMO it's much better just to swallow the grade inflation for a year. It will naturally reset itself next year (when exams will be sat again), and the negative effect from it are pretty minimal. The algorithm is based on the assumption that performance of successive school y…

> IMO it's much better just to swallow the grade inflation for a year. When hiring, I'll be crossing off any qualifications earned in 2020. As well as the results being 'fake', the actual learning was in most cases not being done because the students knew they could chill at home and not learn. Sure, some students were studying, but as an employer I don't want to take that risk. Would you want your doctor to be the o…

Learn how to be human, you poor inadequate and damaged failure

Re: What the world can learn from the UK's A-level grading fiasco

#37

Post by simonh » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 10:15 AM UTC

supernova87a wrote: post #22

This virus situation has (or will) produce a lost year of productivity. But people don't want to admit that and are still trying to operate under old constraints or processes. It will break somewhere. They want to keep schools running, and years / classes of students progressing through. But they also want to have some semblance of standards, without being able to teach properly or assess progress properly. All these…

It's not about passing the test though, it's about sorting out who gets to go to university and who doesn't.

If the training of pilots one year was compromised so none of them could certified, we'd go a year without certifying any new pilots. We'd cope somehow. Universities can't go a year without any new students though, that's just not a reasonable outcome.

On the face of it basing grades on predicted outcomes and adjusting for the historical record of specific schools to overestimate those predictions seems to be a pragmatic approach.

Re: What the world can learn from the UK's A-level grading fiasco

#38

Post by remus » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 10:16 AM UTC

makomk wrote: post #18

In reality, I think this fiasco has more to do with politics than algorithms. One of the big problems is that the alternatives had downsides which were largely glossed over for political reasons - for example the university growth cap isn't just an arbitrary creation, it exists to stop more prestigious universities siphoning off a disproportionate share of students and leaving less prestigious ones in deep trouble an…

It seems like a classic political no-win situation: if you go with an algorithm then anyone who gets a lower than predicted grade is going to complain (and of course has every right to, as any algorithm is likely to unfairly disadvantage some section of the population). If you give everyone their predicted grades then you're accepting massive grade inflation which makes the grades far less useful as a predictor of a student's ability which then means lots of problems further down the line.

Re: What the world can learn from the UK's A-level grading fiasco

#39

Post by simonh » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 10:16 AM UTC

076ae80a-3c97-4 wrote: post #23

The only true fair solution would be to put everyone back at least a year and wait until the exams can actually be done. In the mean time they could've invested the energy in getting an online exam system working and improve/innovate online learning mechanisms so that if we go back into lockdown again they are ready for it.

I don't think doubling the size of the classes in the year below, and forcing schools to retain an extra year's worth of students is at all practical or would actually solve any problems. Let alone all the new problems it would create. What do Universities do if they have a whole year's worth of students just not show up, then suddenly gets two years worth come in at the same time?

I suspect you've not actually thought this through.

Re: What the world can learn from the UK's A-level grading fiasco

#40

Post by londons_explore » Wed, Sep 02, 2020, 10:17 AM UTC

chippy wrote: post #10

londons_explore wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The algorithm was the same one used for decades, and previously published. It pretty much says: > You get your exam grade. If that isn't available, you get a grade set by averaging your peers from the same school, with the set of peers decided by a ranking set by your teacher. If that isn't available, you get a grade chosen by your raking in class selected from the distribution of your schools past performance. There…

When did the algorithm get used in the past? I imagine it being applied to individuals when they had an accident and missed the exams, but did it get applied to entire schools?

It got applied to entire schools if for example the school had to close due to a fire/flood.

My school had it applied to one of my exam subjects for the entire year. I suspect the exam papers were lost/stole/destroyed after we took the exam, but before they were marked. Not sure how, but everyone was assigned 100%, and nobody complained...