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Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

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Re: Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

#41

Post by CraigJPerry »

Animats wrote: post #22
Lio wrote: post #2

Instead of endlessly rehashing Blade Runner and ripping off Neuromancer, it would be nice to see film and TV execs produce something about the what the future world will look like when it’s dominated by the Chinese Communist Party. They won’t though because the Chinese Communist Party is fucking scary and doesn’t take to being commented on. All those little plastic widgets and cheap clothes we import are paying for t…

China's plans aren't a big secret. There's Made In China 2025.[1] The 14th Five Year Plan is being drafted now. Unlike the USSR, China was reasonably successful in meeting the goals of the 13 Five Year Plans so far, with the notable exception of the Great Leap Forward fiasco of the 1960s. The Made In China 2025 plan focuses on pharmaceutical, automotive, aerospace, semiconductor, IT and robotics manufacturing. The go…

I wish my country put their weight behind a strategy. A 30 year plan or something like that.

Re: Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

#42

Post by MagnumOpus »

stann wrote: post #8
chrisco255 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They won't because they love money and they generate significant revenue in that market. Same reason nobody is calling China out for imprisoning a million Muslims in a concentration camp.

China is NOT 'imprisoning a million Muslims in a concentration camp'. Dig a little deeper. Hyperbole does not help anybody.

Right, the one million seems like the lowball esitmate from the UN Human Rights Council and the US Congressional Committee.

Local sources like the NCHRD had the number of concentration camp inmates at 2 to 3 million already back in 2018. Of course it is possible that most have starved since or have become organ donors, so numbers are hard to pin down.

Re: Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

#43

Post by rmrfstar »

DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #10

whether this navy is effective in a theater of war _today_ is a good question. They tend to be sub-optimal in a time dominated by PMC's and asymmetric warfare. Having a highly complex, maintenance-intensive fleet is nice for show and maybe to scare the odd South East Asian country into submission during disputes in the South China Sea. But for it to be effective it needs to be exercised in real life (kinetic) conditi…

Andy Grove was right in 2010 [1], as he often was.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-07-01/andy-grov...

Re: Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

#44

Post by smabie »

camillomiller wrote: post #20

China Military spending 2019: $261 billion, or 1.9% GDP US Military spending in 2019: $732 billion, or 3.4% GDP China leapfrogged the U.S. by spending a little less than one third of what the US squandered. Just let that sink in. Oh and you know what China really is spending its money on, instead of militarized local police forces? Research. China R&D spending in 2018: 4.11% of GDP. U.S. R&D spending in 2016 and max…

The Chinese military has not leapfrogged the US military. China has the largest military in the world, but that hasn't meant much in a long-time.

The US has by far the most advanced and sophisticated weaponry of any military and that level of sophistication can hardly be captured by pure statistics alone.

And while as a non-expert I can't confidently comment on the advantages and drawbacks of sophistication vs pure manpower/number of units, I wouldn't be surprised if in today's geopolitical environment the former is more important than the later.

Though I think it's likely that the US approach is more about reducing casualties in order to lower the political barrier to war than anything else. After all, in a democracy you lose a war when the people are no longer willing to support it anymore. China doesn't have this problem and continue fighting regardless of the number of deaths sustained.

Re: Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

#45

Post by bobthepanda »

Animats wrote: post #22
Lio wrote: post #2

Instead of endlessly rehashing Blade Runner and ripping off Neuromancer, it would be nice to see film and TV execs produce something about the what the future world will look like when it’s dominated by the Chinese Communist Party. They won’t though because the Chinese Communist Party is fucking scary and doesn’t take to being commented on. All those little plastic widgets and cheap clothes we import are paying for t…

China's plans aren't a big secret. There's Made In China 2025.[1] The 14th Five Year Plan is being drafted now. Unlike the USSR, China was reasonably successful in meeting the goals of the 13 Five Year Plans so far, with the notable exception of the Great Leap Forward fiasco of the 1960s. The Made In China 2025 plan focuses on pharmaceutical, automotive, aerospace, semiconductor, IT and robotics manufacturing. The go…

I doubt they'll get to state of the art in aerospace, at least not in a plane that is actually capable of flying in every country.

Aircraft development is hard. Many states have tried sponsoring programs and they have mostly been duds, like Japan and Russia; even successful ones, like Canada's Bombardier and Brazil's Embraer, have or were about to sell to the Boeing-Airbus duopoly because the costs of additional aircraft development are far too high now. Pretty much every commercial aircraft program has come in late and over budget in recent years. And the MAX8 situation has made things worse for everybody involved because rather than take peer agencies' word for it, everyone is going to want to run their own stringent tests now.

Re: Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

#46

Post by nickff »

throwaway4good wrote: post #38
nickff wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has not “leapfrogged the US military”, you are comparing dissimilar numbers. If you want to compare the real power of a navy, you’re better off comparing warship tonnages, while taking into account the force-multiplier effect of forward operating bases. China has many, smaller ships than the USA, and far less power projection capability, especially when it comes to naval aviation.

"Far less power projection capability" That is an important point. It is a strategic objective of the US to be able project massive military power any place in the world. However that is not the case for China (as it is now). China's main strategic goal is secure access to the pacific ocean (even if it is met with an American naval blockade). It is obvious to me that that goal is much cheaper than the American goal.

China does not have secure access to the Pacific Ocean; U.S. attack submarines and air-launched anti-ship missiles mean that Chinese ships are at risk as soon as they leave the South China Sea, or possibly even port.

I think the Chinese objective is to have enough power to deny U.S. access to the South China Sea, and perhaps the sea of Japan. They also want to be able to project power in the case of more limited conflicts, such as civil wars in Africa or the Middle East.

Re: Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

#47

Post by eunos »

roenxi wrote: post #36

This is probably just the US Navy making an indirect play for a bigger budget. The Chinese navy and US navy are not comparable. But there is a real change afoot, it seems likely that the Chinese will master making battleships if they put their mind to it. It seems likely they have the industrial supply chains to sustain a real military build-up if they want to. Their manufacturing capacity is a very real thing and th…

They already have a sufficient mastery in making surface fleet, mainly because they also have a robust and massive civilian shipbuilding industry (neck-to-neck with South Korea). Their next target probably is to master making submarine and nuclear propulsion.

What I am looking forward is that assuming Chinese battery maker managed to lead the world both in research and manufacturing because massive Chinese Electric Vehicle growth, will it helps Chinese's submarine and drone development?

Re: Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

#48

Post by Lio »

seer wrote: post #18
Lio wrote: post #2

Instead of endlessly rehashing Blade Runner and ripping off Neuromancer, it would be nice to see film and TV execs produce something about the what the future world will look like when it’s dominated by the Chinese Communist Party. They won’t though because the Chinese Communist Party is fucking scary and doesn’t take to being commented on. All those little plastic widgets and cheap clothes we import are paying for t…

The venerable “Firefly” series explored this a bit way back in 2002. The idea was that since china is _the_ superpower even the lowliest scum would know a curse word or two in chinese. Was quite an interesting concept back then.

It’s an interesting programme but I don’t really think life in the next 100 years will resemble Firefly.

It’s probably closer to the truth to imagine a world with no Western intellectual property or manufacturing.

That will mean “interesting” changes.

For example, what would it mean if most western pharmaceutical companies fail and access to cutting edge medicine was only available through China?

What power would that give the CCP and what would they do with that considering their current ambition?

Look at their expanding South American fishing fleet and naval action in the South China Sea for clues.

Re: Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

#49

Post by smabie »

Areading314 wrote: post #19
lazyeye wrote: post #6

I wonder how much of the hundreds millions (billions?) of dollars China was able to save due its status as a "developing economy" contributed to its massive military buildup. Or for that matter, that high priority for all developing economies, putting a lander on the moon. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3004873/c...

China surpassed the US in GDP normalized to PPP in 2014, which is the statistic that captures the power of their economy to manufacture and employ military force. Given current trends, it is inevitable that China's military will surpass the US's military power based on their economic prowess and manufacturing capability.

GDP with respect to the PPP exchange rate isn't a good measure for military spending as most of the spending I imagine goes through international currencies (and thus determined by the spot rate).

Re: Pentagon: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy

#50

Post by mytailorisrich »

rich_sasha wrote: post #35
Areading314 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China surpassed the US in GDP normalized to PPP in 2014, which is the statistic that captures the power of their economy to manufacture and employ military force. Given current trends, it is inevitable that China's military will surpass the US's military power based on their economic prowess and manufacturing capability.

There was a strongly held belief that Japan will dwarf the US at one point too. And true, Japan has massively developed but is nowhere near a superpower. Also, IIRC the EU as a block has a bigger GDP than the US by some margin, and yet isn’t a “joint superpower”. Money is a necessary, but not sufficient condition.

Japan could never have dwarfed the US. Germany could never have dwarfed the US.

Barring a catastrophe in the US, you need to look at the numbers: Japan is quite small, most of it land is mountains, it has barely any natural resources, its population is about a third of the US's. There was some hysteria in the 80s but factually with such numbers Japan could never have surpassed the US.

In addition to that, because of WWII Japan is basically satellite state of the US, which means it cannot do as it pleases militarily (and even politically).

On the other hand, China is larger than the continental US, has plenty of natural resources, and has a population 4x that of the US. It is also, of course, not subjected to US domination.

The role are reversed and, as China develops, the numbers indicates that China essentially will dwarf the US.

This is really what has dawned on the American government and what explains their actions. They're not panicking yet but they are certainly alarmed (Japan never alarmed anyone in the D.C area since 1945).

Even the EU makes the US uneasy because, again, they know that the EU can be bigger than they are.

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