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China again boosts R&D spending by more than 10%

sciencemag.org

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Re: China again boosts R&D spending by more than 10%

#51

Post by fakeslimshady »

gamblor956 wrote: post #41
bserge wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the very least we know Chinese companies (and by extension, the government) do indeed spend a lot on research, development and production. The sheer amount of tech made and shipped from China is astonishing. And the quality has massively improved, while prices stay low. Everything from amazing BGA reballing stations to high quality solar panels and power tools.

A lot of that IP was stolen from US and EU companies. Cost isn't the only reason that manufacturing is moving out of China; companies are finally realizing that using Chinese factories is tantamount to giving the PRC access to all of your technical IP.

Like 5G LOL. All knowledge and engineering is built on previous works of many others. Seems like Tesla and Apple have been successful there

Re: China again boosts R&D spending by more than 10%

#52

Post by kkylin »

_6fmb wrote: post #19
Taek wrote: post #7

I think this is a very good move for China and think the US should match it.

If you actually read the article we already outspend them on R&D. We spent 2.8% of GDP vs their 2.2% of GDP. They failed to meet their target of 2.5% of GDP despite steadily increasing.

Genuinely curious: to what extent is that because the numerator didn't grow enough, and to what extent is it because the denominator grew too quickly?

Re: China again boosts R&D spending by more than 10%

#53

Post by alfalfasprout »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #3

In principal this is good for humanity so long as the research isn’t directed towards tools to improve efficiency of repression.

One thing I’ve noticed is that although eg; investing in R&D and STEM education in China has skyrocketed in the last 5-ish years in practice tech there still doesn’t seem extremely polished and talent coming to the US has been iffy on average (with the exception of the very top talent which is still excellent).

A good proportion of Chinese research is still rampantly fraudulent and of the legitimate research only a small fraction ends up being truly innovative. This implies a low return on R&D investment.

The same applies to software projects. At least in the OSS world you rarely see quality projects coming from China nowadays. The ones that do are almost always from companies with a US presence. Perhaps collaboration is difficult?

Re: Face recognition— this is something that is so clearly going to be used as a tool for oppression yet when I speak to those currently in the mainland they sing its praises in dealing w/ COVID. We will see how the cards fall when COVID is over. My guess is you won’t see ethnic Uyghurs living in mainland China 15 years from now.

Of course, every time a post about China comes up someone goes “oh but the US is the same”. No, it’s really not. The US has its fair share of issues with domestic spying and definitely some degree of repression but we still have a free and open internet, open discourse is permitted, and tools like strong encryption are widely available and even assisted in development by the government (eg; Tor).

Re: China again boosts R&D spending by more than 10%

#55

Post by arcticbull »

_6fmb wrote: post #19
Taek wrote: post #7

I think this is a very good move for China and think the US should match it.

If you actually read the article we already outspend them on R&D. We spent 2.8% of GDP vs their 2.2% of GDP. They failed to meet their target of 2.5% of GDP despite steadily increasing.

Novel R&D is more expensive than incremental catch-up R&D; you can catch up by spending less money since by definition you at least know where you're going.

When you take into account that China's GDP is 70% of the US but has a PPP factor of about 1.6 (i.e. the same amount of US dollars goes 60% further in China than it would notionally in America) they're actually spending what amounts 2.6% of the US GDP in PPP dollars.

Re: China again boosts R&D spending by more than 10%

#56

Post by rococode »

bserge wrote: post #4
rvba wrote: post #2

Can those numbers be trusted? https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/21/nobody-knows-anything-a...

At the very least we know Chinese companies (and by extension, the government) do indeed spend a lot on research, development and production. The sheer amount of tech made and shipped from China is astonishing. And the quality has massively improved, while prices stay low. Everything from amazing BGA reballing stations to high quality solar panels and power tools.

Yeah, the specific numbers don't matter so much as the desired narrative behind the numbers. Clearly, the government wants to boost R&D.

Regardless of whether or not they have to "adjust" their numbers for one specific year, the fact is that they've set their goalposts at double the R&D growth of the west (both US and EU are at around 5% R&D growth [1]).

Unless in reality they're not even halfway reaching their goals, they're going to overtake the US and EU in spending at some point, probably pretty soon. The graph in the link below (published by the US gov) is quite clear. One of those lines is obviously not like the others.

[1] https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsb20201/global-r-d

Re: China again boosts R&D spending by more than 10%

#57

Post by arcticbull »

gamblor956 wrote: post #41
bserge wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the very least we know Chinese companies (and by extension, the government) do indeed spend a lot on research, development and production. The sheer amount of tech made and shipped from China is astonishing. And the quality has massively improved, while prices stay low. Everything from amazing BGA reballing stations to high quality solar panels and power tools.

A lot of that IP was stolen from US and EU companies. Cost isn't the only reason that manufacturing is moving out of China; companies are finally realizing that using Chinese factories is tantamount to giving the PRC access to all of your technical IP.

That's an incredibly short-sighted way of looking at what's happening. If you want to become a Chef, you don't start by inventing new Michelin star dishes de novo. You copy your betters. Over and over and over. Then, once you learn how they do what they do, you innovate.

Japan did this. Do not underestimate China.

Re: China again boosts R&D spending by more than 10%

#58

Post by xenospn »

arcticbull wrote: post #57
gamblor956 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of that IP was stolen from US and EU companies. Cost isn't the only reason that manufacturing is moving out of China; companies are finally realizing that using Chinese factories is tantamount to giving the PRC access to all of your technical IP.

That's an incredibly short-sighted way of looking at what's happening. If you want to become a Chef, you don't start by inventing new Michelin star dishes de novo. You copy your betters. Over and over and over. Then, once you learn how they do what they do, you innovate. Japan did this. Do not underestimate China.

There's one major difference - Japanese companies took mediocre western tech (autos, transistor radios) and made it better. Chinese companies just copy.

Re: China again boosts R&D spending by more than 10%

#59

Post by fred_is_fred »

arcticbull wrote: post #55
_6fmb wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you actually read the article we already outspend them on R&D. We spent 2.8% of GDP vs their 2.2% of GDP. They failed to meet their target of 2.5% of GDP despite steadily increasing.

Novel R&D is more expensive than incremental catch-up R&D; you can catch up by spending less money since by definition you at least know where you're going. When you take into account that China's GDP is 70% of the US but has a PPP factor of about 1.6 (i.e. the same amount of US dollars goes 60% further in China than it would notionally in America) they're actually spending what amounts 2.6% of the US GDP in PPP doll…

Also on a per output basis spies are cheaper than scientists.

Re: China again boosts R&D spending by more than 10%

#60

Post by _6fmb »

kkylin wrote: post #52
_6fmb wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you actually read the article we already outspend them on R&D. We spent 2.8% of GDP vs their 2.2% of GDP. They failed to meet their target of 2.5% of GDP despite steadily increasing.

Genuinely curious: to what extent is that because the numerator didn't grow enough, and to what extent is it because the denominator grew too quickly?

If you read the article, it says the numerator grew faster than the denominator, and analysts think progress is good and not meeting the target this year is not a problem.
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