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Ask HN: Is there any serious discussion about the stock market online?

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Ask HN: Is there any serious discussion about the stock market online?

#1

Post by FreeHugs »

To me it often seems, HN is the only intelligent site on the net. At least for posts that get a lot of votes. Then usually some substantial comments get voted to the top and the nonsense tends to sink to the bottom.

I think a lot about the stock market and would love to read some discussion about company valuations. But I have found nothing so far. Neither on social media, nor on classic newspaper sites. All I found so far is cheap nonsense.

Is there anything out there worth reading?

Re: Ask HN: Is there any serious discussion about the stock market online?

#2

Post by PaulHoule »

No.

If I knew something about the stock market that was valuable and I told people for free i would destroy the value of that knowledge.

Thus 'those who know don't talk and those who talk don't know'.

This is math and you can't get around it. By definition somebody pontificating on the stock market is doing it for self-aggrandizement or to fool you to make bad trades.

Re: Ask HN: Is there any serious discussion about the stock market online?

#3

Post by Lorenz-Kraft »

Personally, it think you allready understood most of what's happening: Its mostly nonsense. Its all "Future Bets" und "Future Expectations" that are all explained by "Experts" and plain lies from CEOs about actual value. As every toddler can tell you: Nobody can tell you the future.

Or do you want to grasp the "inner workings" like "Ratings" and stuff?

Re: Ask HN: Is there any serious discussion about the stock market online?

#5

Post by janbernhart »

PaulHoule wrote: post #2

No. If I knew something about the stock market that was valuable and I told people for free i would destroy the value of that knowledge. Thus 'those who know don't talk and those who talk don't know'. This is math and you can't get around it. By definition somebody pontificating on the stock market is doing it for self-aggrandizement or to fool you to make bad trades.

If someone 'knows/sees' product X is over/under valued, he/she will act on it (buy or sell it) which will bend the price to that new value.

Now there are no absolute certainties, and the knowledge that come close to absolute certainty and aren't publicly known, are usually pretty illegal to share.

What's left it mostly speculation. Which is fine, that is how this all works.

Re: Ask HN: Is there any serious discussion about the stock market online?

#6

Post by cyberdrunk »

Lorenz-Kraft wrote: post #3

Personally, it think you allready understood most of what's happening: Its mostly nonsense. Its all "Future Bets" und "Future Expectations" that are all explained by "Experts" and plain lies from CEOs about actual value. As every toddler can tell you: Nobody can tell you the future. Or do you want to grasp the "inner workings" like "Ratings" and stuff?

You can at least try discussing real valuations of various securities (aka fundamental analysis). Then, whenever current market insanity brings the price below the real valuation, you buy. Fundamental analysis looks like full time work though.

Re: Ask HN: Is there any serious discussion about the stock market online?

#7

Post by PaulHoule »

janbernhart wrote: post #5
PaulHoule wrote: post #2

No. If I knew something about the stock market that was valuable and I told people for free i would destroy the value of that knowledge. Thus 'those who know don't talk and those who talk don't know'. This is math and you can't get around it. By definition somebody pontificating on the stock market is doing it for self-aggrandizement or to fool you to make bad trades.

If someone 'knows/sees' product X is over/under valued, he/she will act on it (buy or sell it) which will bend the price to that new value. Now there are no absolute certainties, and the knowledge that come close to absolute certainty and aren't publicly known, are usually pretty illegal to share. What's left it mostly speculation. Which is fine, that is how this all works.

You can definitely win money at the thoroughbred or harness racing track, not by picking "the best horse", but by waiting for a bet that is terrifically mispriced. Maybe once a day there is one that is so clear to me that I can do the math in my head, otherwise it's a game of running my model on my calculator, applying Kelly to decide bets, etc.

The "dollars get left on the floor" because the opportunity is limited there. At my local track I'd estimate that a bet more than about $50 would move the odds into a bad place for me. If I have a big bankroll I can't make Kelly bets anymore and my rate of return goes down. People who are good at this and serious about making money start their own sports books, trade derivatives, or something.

Re: Ask HN: Is there any serious discussion about the stock market online?

#8

Post by PaulHoule »

cyberdrunk wrote: post #6
Lorenz-Kraft wrote: post #3

Personally, it think you allready understood most of what's happening: Its mostly nonsense. Its all "Future Bets" und "Future Expectations" that are all explained by "Experts" and plain lies from CEOs about actual value. As every toddler can tell you: Nobody can tell you the future. Or do you want to grasp the "inner workings" like "Ratings" and stuff?

You can at least try discussing real valuations of various securities (aka fundamental analysis). Then, whenever current market insanity brings the price below the real valuation, you buy. Fundamental analysis looks like full time work though.

The great hedge fund manager John Maynard Keynes said "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent."

Re: Ask HN: Is there any serious discussion about the stock market online?

#9

Post by paulriddle »

PaulHoule wrote: post #2

No. If I knew something about the stock market that was valuable and I told people for free i would destroy the value of that knowledge. Thus 'those who know don't talk and those who talk don't know'. This is math and you can't get around it. By definition somebody pontificating on the stock market is doing it for self-aggrandizement or to fool you to make bad trades.

But unless you're investing other people's money, you are a small fish in the sea. Like, if all you have is 200k then none of your decisions being public would affect you in a negative way. Admittedly, I don't know much about the stock market but I can't imagine anyone caring if you want to short some company's stock.

Re: Ask HN: Is there any serious discussion about the stock market online?

#10

Post by whyhow »

PaulHoule wrote: post #2

No. If I knew something about the stock market that was valuable and I told people for free i would destroy the value of that knowledge. Thus 'those who know don't talk and those who talk don't know'. This is math and you can't get around it. By definition somebody pontificating on the stock market is doing it for self-aggrandizement or to fool you to make bad trades.

This is an over-simplified view of the market. The market isn't a zero-sum game. It's often in an investor's best interests to publish their research on a position (after they have taken it) to convince others to jump in the trade with them. It doesn't do you any good to find a diamond in the rough if no one else knows about it.

It is a minefield though and you should never 100% trust one source on any given investment, but to act like there is some kind of mathematical truth that no one ever publishes any useful stock analysis is just silly.

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