Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…
There's a quote that I sadly can't find the origin of but goes a little like:
>Carlyle called economics the "dismal science". He was half-correct; it is indeed dismal.
Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…
> Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. [citation needed] > I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? All the stock market gains are from big tech. Any other markets are flat or down. ( https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec&st=ytd )
Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…
They're pointing out the obvious. Do you think tons of people are going to start dining out again? Going to gyms? Going to the movies? Large parts of the economy will be soft for years. Much of it will never come back due to semi-permanent shifts in behavior.
I do. In many areas people are already doing those things.
Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…
> Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. [citation needed] > I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? All the stock market gains are from big tech. Any other markets are flat or down. ( https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec&st=ytd )
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable," John Kenneth Galbraith, an irreverent economist, once said. ... Over the period [1999-2014] there were 220 instances in which an economy grew in one year before shrinking in the next. In its April forecasts the IMF never once foresaw the contraction looming in the next year. Even in October of the year in question, the IMF predicted that a recession had begun only half the time. To be fair, an average-growth prediction also misses 100% of recessions. One model does better, though. Our random-number generator correctly forecast the start of a recession 18% of the time."
But employers aren't in business to supply jobs, though, right? If the revenue and profits aren't there they can't print up their own money. EDIT: parent comment now empty initially said that companies should hire more people to help keep the economy going.
Why not? The Federal Reserve has been printing up their own money this year like there's no tommorow. “To lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account they have with the Fed. So it’s much more akin, although not exactly the same, to printing money, than it is to borrowing.” --Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Employers could simply use the same Sorcery to supply digital jobs.
Considering the unemployment rate, yes. Considering the stock market, no.
There's an easy explanation for that. The stock that is driving the stock market boom is stuff that can replace "inefficiencies" in old school companies with massive scale and lots of cheap staff - Amazon being the best example. They, unlike classic retailers, are not bound by long term expensive rents and high amounts of (relatively) expensive staff, they can sell, even including delivery costs, much cheaper product - and for perishable goods they have the advantage that they can exactly steer demand with supply which means that unlike a traditional supermarket where people expect fresh groceries at 8 in the evening which leads to a LOT of waste due to reserves held across different locations in a city, they have one fulfillment center outside of the city that needs way less buffer.
Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…
>> Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. Well, it doesn't help that they don't have control over external factors. Like the Fed reducing interest rates to 0, and buying corporate bonds. Very hard to predict something when there's no free market where things just play out with no external influence.
On the other hand, they are predicting the Fed's actions, that's always a significant part of the models, and the Fed and the government etc aren't random actors, they are somewhat predictable (and stability is their goal which helps in that regard). But they aren't really the market makers by themselves, so even if you get those predictions right, you might still be far away from being correct.
When it's a survey of many economists I tend to put stock in what comes out. In this case if 80% say there is a 25% chance of a second dip, thats a much more informed opinion than I could ever have on the subject. I now know it isn't likely so don't plan my life around waiting for the second dip, but also don't be too surprised if we do see a second dip.
> When it's a survey of many economists I tend to put stock in what comes out. In this case if 80% say there is a 25% chance of a second dip, thats a much more informed opinion than I could ever have on the subject. Who do you think has a higher chance of being right: * macroeconomists when predicting the future of the economy * fund managers when predicting the future of stocks Just because people are smart or know…
> Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future.
That's unfair to astrologists, economists are not going to be that good. :-)
To be fair, the better economists work by creating models based on reality. But we don't have a rich dataset about modern economies responding to pandemics. It's not that they are stupid, it's that economies are difficult to predict in general, and we don't have the data sets to give any confidence for this case.
Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…
Yeah, I know reality challenges your whole "MAGA" narrative, but the reality is the economy is a disaster.
Keep lying to yourself by questioning the experts though, just like with climate change and all the other "MAGA" inconveniences. I'm sure you know better.
Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…
> Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future.
Yes, but a survey of economists or astrologers predictions it's still probably better than the survey of randomly chosen people, if for another reason then both of them are in the business of surveying your broad range of signals from a broad range of people to inform their predictions.
Any individual is capable of being wildly wrong in their predictions regardless of their title.