The Draper Curve

#1

Post by kdivvela » Sun, Apr 10, 2011, 4:02 AM UTC

The Draper Curve
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Re: The Draper Curve

#2

Post by hallowtech » Sun, Apr 10, 2011, 5:59 AM UTC

I wonder what the Donald Draper curve is like.

Re: The Draper Curve

#3

Post by nikcub » Sun, Apr 10, 2011, 6:22 AM UTC

I can't think of where this holds true outside of the dotcom bubble.

For eg. the curve with social just keeps going up

Re: The Draper Curve

#4

Post by enko » Sun, Apr 10, 2011, 6:37 AM UTC

This looks like a graphical interpretation of the well-known quote: "We tend to overestimate the short term impact of a technology and underestimate the long term impact." (Dr. Francis Collins - Director of the Human Genome Project)

Re: The Draper Curve

#5

Post by alextingle » Sun, Apr 10, 2011, 10:51 AM UTC

Where's the historical evidence for this? Can I draw a graph like that for steam engines? The plough? Telephones?

Without that it's just an optimistic line on a whiteboard that means "there won't be another dot.com crash, this time it's to real".

Re: The Draper Curve

#6

Post by sp332 » Sun, Apr 10, 2011, 11:29 AM UTC

hallowtech wrote: post #2

I wonder what the Donald Draper curve is like.

A 2600 Hz sine wave! rimshot

Re: The Draper Curve

#7

Post by nprincigalli » Sun, Apr 10, 2011, 12:15 PM UTC

Better explained here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle and some examples here: http://www.floor.nl/ebiz/gartnershypecycle.htm

Re: The Draper Curve

#8

Post by zyfo » Sun, Apr 10, 2011, 12:21 PM UTC

nikcub wrote: post #3

I can't think of where this holds true outside of the dotcom bubble. For eg. the curve with social just keeps going up

The second sentence of yours hardly speaks against a hype curve. Rather the opposite, given recent valuations and the little market doubt/backlash.

Re: The Draper Curve

#9

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Re: The Draper Curve

#10

Post by mitko » Sun, Apr 10, 2011, 1:44 PM UTC

alextingle wrote: post #5

Where's the historical evidence for this? Can I draw a graph like that for steam engines? The plough? Telephones? Without that it's just an optimistic line on a whiteboard that means "there won't be another dot.com crash, this time it's to real".

also, past performance is not guarantee for future success- otherwise there would be much fewer banks bankrupting.