Earlier quoted context omitted.
How do you reach that concclusion/ How can a region be tested based on housing-market freeness? Who or what interests advance restrictions?
It's fairly well established by now that the most significant drivers of housing unaffordability is the preponderance of zoning regulations that restrict the supply of new housing construction. https://www.nber.org/papers/w8835 https://research.upjohn.org/up_workingpapers/307/ https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/08/la... https://www.nber.org/papers/w20536 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1sHh6BJ8dPo…
Patrick Collison's Questions
271–280 of 288 posts
Re: Patrick Collison's Questions
#272The infrastructure one really stands out to me, and I'm always astounded by it. Adding yet another example - The Golden Gate Bridge was built in 4 years for $1.6 billion (inflation adjusted), under budget and ahead of schedule. 11 workers died during construction, a safety record matching or surpassing most modern projects. In contrast, a project to install suicide nets around the bridge has been under development fo…
> 11 workers died during construction, a safety record matching or surpassing most modern projects. Do you have a source for that? 11 deaths seems like it would be shockingly high for a modern project.
Re: Patrick Collison's Questions
#273I like the way " Is Bloom's "Two Sigma" phenomenon real? If so, what do we do about it? " is loaded. Touches on several "questions" in the vein of this article. One load is " why don't we know this with more certainty? " It's a useful thing to know. What is achievable? What's the bar? How good could education be, regardless of resources and other limitations. If true, that can be our 100% marker for instructional eff…
If one is trying to improve education given class sizes of 1 or 2 dozen students, it may not be helpful to pursue better quantitative studies for class sizes of 1 or 2 students.
The goal, in my view, of such research is to make discoveries. I'm dubious of academic research that targets scalable educational methods too closely.
In essence, I agree with Patrick. I want to know if "2-sigma" is true, replicable. Establish that watermark. At that point we'll have a high watermark for education, what a median student can achieve in a near ideal environment. Is there really a 2 sigma difference between normal school results and ideal?
If so, this difference represents potential.
Figuring out how to apply that IRL with resource constraints, scaling issues, etc... That may not be a job for academics. Either way, it comes later.
Re: Patrick Collison's Questions
#274Earlier quoted context omitted.
UK schools don't seem to have textbook standardisation in the way the US does, but the schools seem to function fine.
Are you saying that in any given UK primary school (I mean the actual physical school, not the school district, municipality, county, etc) they don't use the same textbook/curriculum across multiple classrooms in the same grade/standard ? Does each teacher or student/family chooses the textbook to use, without any standardization even at the same school? That seems pretty impractical.
My understanding was that US school districts or even whole states selected textbooks for K-12 students that all teachers were expected to use in public schools, but I may have missed something.
And US university accreditation seems to be tied to exam boards who also publish textbooks which students are expected to buy; again, in the UK, there is nothing so organised (in the sense of "organized crime") and University accreditation is done by a separate non-profit, the QAA.
Re: Patrick Collison's Questions
#275Earlier quoted context omitted.
Starting from Patrick's question, and working through the list... It suggests that some of our market-thinking has been off mark. Free-market economic policies have tended to define things in terms of market "freeness." How much intervention, etc. This is commonly how we think politically, because it relates directly to policies. The way these affect reality is through the market structures themselves. We can regulat…
I think you're right that some industries are more conducive to competition in general. However shouldn't we be more careful then in terms of creating barriers to competition? If we treated restaurants like hospitals/healthcare we would give your employer a tax break in return for determining the set of restaurants you may dine at. Any new recipe or cooking method used by a restaurant would need to first be approved…
But, I think a lot of economics gets stuck in a sort of theoretical mud. In theory, barriers to competition, entry or always have negative effects. Those negative effects can be small, big, or irrelevant relative to other effects related to the same policy.
What i am suggesting, is that industry structure determines these. So yes, there are theoretical policies that might make hairdressing worse or hospitals better in this regard. In reality though, policies are very often acting within margins where competitiveness doesn't move the needle much either way.
Assuming a thriving restaurant market exists, it will probably remain pretty competitive under any "normal" policy regime. No one is really going to implement FDA approvals for recipes or tax related employer funding schemes.
No one is going to implement a totally nonaccredited hospital system, where doctors & nurses don't have to be trained or licensed. At the very theoretical end, laissez faire dynamics might yield a market-based regulation system that accredits doctors and such without government intervention. But once again (a) that's very unlikely and (b) if it did happen that would still be regulation.
For 99% of real life scenarios, restaurants lend to a free market dynamic while hospitals do not. Governments are involved, but they do not create this reality. It is innate. One policy regime or another (short of communism or such) is not going to change that.
Re: Patrick Collison's Questions
#276Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's fairly well established by now that the most significant drivers of housing unaffordability is the preponderance of zoning regulations that restrict the supply of new housing construction. https://www.nber.org/papers/w8835 https://research.upjohn.org/up_workingpapers/307/ https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/08/la... https://www.nber.org/papers/w20536 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1sHh6BJ8dPo…
Who or what interests advance restrictions?
Re: Patrick Collison's Questions
#277Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think you're right that some industries are more conducive to competition in general. However shouldn't we be more careful then in terms of creating barriers to competition? If we treated restaurants like hospitals/healthcare we would give your employer a tax break in return for determining the set of restaurants you may dine at. Any new recipe or cooking method used by a restaurant would need to first be approved…
Possibly. But, I think a lot of economics gets stuck in a sort of theoretical mud. In theory, barriers to competition, entry or always have negative effects. Those negative effects can be small, big, or irrelevant relative to other effects related to the same policy. What i am suggesting, is that industry structure determines these. So yes, there are theoretical policies that might make hairdressing worse or hospital…
Uber/Lyft have their problems, but one takeaway is that a simple rating system works better than complex licensing and medallions.
Re: Patrick Collison's Questions
#278Earlier quoted context omitted.
Who or what interests advance restrictions?
Usually local NIMBYs
Planned public housing projects such as slum clearance which afford the most efficient methods of utilizing advanced technologies in the building industry, crash against the wall of vested private-property interest. They meet the combined opposition of the owners of obsolete buildings, that nonetheless are still profitable, of landowners who demand prohibitive prices, of holders of mortgages who fear a depreciation of housing values through the increase in available homes. Achievements in building technology lie sterile in the face of the opposition of these interests.
Bernhard J. Stern, "Resistances to the Adoption of Technological Innovations", 1937.
https://archive.org/details/technologicaltre1937unitrich/pag...
This little-known work detail instances and dynamics in which opposition to innovation occurs. As the author notes: "The most potent of the cultural factors are clearly economic: Efforts to maintain economic advantage and hegemony over competing classes, and over competitors in the same industry and rivals in the same market in allied fields."[1]
In the case of housing, it is both a financialised asset, of value to present property owners, landlords, banks and financial institutions; and a mode of social and political control, directed against class, race, and ethnic interests: the working class, poor, blacks, immigrants, non-WASPs, etc. The mechanism vary but may include zoning, redlining, availability of mortgages or insurance, restrictive covenants, building codes, leasing limitations, and more.[2] Even non-housing aspects such as transit service, walkability, and bikability impact on this.
Housing densities in the US are exceptionally low by European and global standards, even (or especially) within major cities. Unmet need could be met not by creating tower forests but simply through low-rise multi-family dwellings. San Francisco is overwhelmingly three floors or less, with large tracts single or two-storey construction, ground floor often garage. Five-floor structures could readily double available housing. Similar dynamics exist throughout the country.
The result is resisted by entrenched economic interests capable of exerting influence, which is to say, suppliers with a capability to restrict supply of a price-inelastic good, and thus, disrupting an otherwise "free market". The perversion is that it's the very mechanisms of markets, property, profit, and accumulation, whichend up distorting them. "Wealth, as Mr Hobbes says, is power", wrote Adam Smith.
"Markets" in this case eat themselves.
________________________________
Notes:
1. I'd learned of this through the graduate student who'd done literary research on the article, and went on to speak and write about it occasionally, including premising some of his own fictional works off the same principle of resistances to innovation: Isaac Asimov.
2. Regulation and governance mechanisms are not inherently bad. But they're extraordinarily prone to capture.
Re: Patrick Collison's Questions
#279Earlier quoted context omitted.
Usually local NIMBYs
When recently the mechanized industries, particularly in metal, entered the housing field with the production of “prefabricated houses”, they were met by the resistance of property holders, especially of the banks, who hold mortgages on about 58 percent of all 1933 value of all urban real estate, and who fear that an influx of cheap modern dwellings would subtract substantially from the market value of existing struc…
Being able to pass local regulations is a perversion of the term "markets". By that logic, the entire world is a free market, even those countries where national governments have been "captured" to suffocate markets like Cuba and North Korea.
Either that, or we need to then come up with a term to describe "property rights free of any regulation". One of my links even describes it as "laissez faire" land use policy, which is what we mean when we say "markets".
The solution to the problem is to actually strengthen property rights: by allowing property owners to build whatever they please on their land without the permission of their local community. We already do that for life and speech — you can't vote to kill somebody, nor can you vote to prevent someone from publishing something. Why then can you vote to prevent someone from building an apartment building?
Re: Patrick Collison's Questions
#280Earlier quoted context omitted.
Something I think may be related, but I don't have strong evidence for, is that I think some of the high Quality shown in Japanese work is also evidence of a tendency towards not trying to do everything. Things I've noticed in a lot of Japanese products, both software and hardware: 1. Barebones UI/UX that I would guess isn't very accessible for blind/non-traditional users. 2. Poor user manuals and often even worse tr…
I have another hypothesis. Japan is a nation of craftsmen. As such, Japan excels at enterprises involving the manipulation of physical objects, like producing cars, cameras, knives, industrial equipment, computer hardware, etc. If you've ever been to Japan, you'd notice that it is a nation where physical objects/systems are very much prized. On the flip side, Japan doesn't seem to do as well with abstract objects. I'…