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Ten countries kept out Covid, but did they win?

bbc.com

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Re: Ten countries kept out Covid, but did they win?

#21

Post by 9HZZRfNlpR »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #16
taneq wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what world is "economy takes a hit" not a win over "economy takes a hit and tens of thousands of people die"?

My concern is about the exit strategy. Most countries don't expect to eradicate the virus for decades, if ever, and vaccines are expected to be only partially effective. After months and potentially years of keeping the virus out, will these countries ever be able to switch and decide it's safe to let the virus in?

I'm currently in Spain and the economic outcome is devastating for low income people, you can sense that large part of the population can't take it anymore and I can't see the measures to continue in the long run. Despite all the neasures (including masks) the virus is spreading.

Re: Ten countries kept out Covid, but did they win?

#22

Post by shadowprofile77 »

Awful lot of privileged software engineer types with relatively cushy lockdown-friendly jobs, good income, savings, covered healthcare and good homes that leap to criticize as selfish, greedy, irresponsible and dumb anyone who insists that economic consequences from lockdown are possibly, just maybe, for many, many hundreds of millions of people all around the world something a bit more than just going short of travel and discretionary income for a few months.

Do any of you even know that a much wider and largely poorer world exists outside your highly developed bubble? Do you not fathom that for billions of people all around the world, the money you don't earn by working today means no food tomorrow and possibly no electricity or capability of paying the doctors visit for your kid next week?

Do you not grasp that for most of these billions of people, the work necessary to get this basic income on a daily and weekly basis absolutely depends on the ability to leave home and engage in external economic activity?

The economic losses that have already been caused by attempts at lockdown are NOT just about some lost income. In so many cases, they literally affect the most fundamental aspects of being able to survive without suffering very badly.

The privileged righteousness that ignores this here is way too common, and awfully foolish. Especially when you consider that we're still in the middle of all this and not even the world's best experts can yet concretely say that lockdowns have done much or that they were the better choice vs trying to keep the economy of so many places from falling so far.

Re: Ten countries kept out Covid, but did they win?

#23

Post by saiya-jin »

adrianN wrote: post #18
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My concern is about the exit strategy. Most countries don't expect to eradicate the virus for decades, if ever, and vaccines are expected to be only partially effective. After months and potentially years of keeping the virus out, will these countries ever be able to switch and decide it's safe to let the virus in?

Partially effective vaccines are good enough to basically eradicate the virus if everybody gets them. No country will continue pandemic measures after a sufficient number of people are vaccinated.

Considering various aspects like anti-vaxers, very remote tribes etc. as true eradication with 7 billions is most probably impossible. Everybody will never get them.

Also, seems like every state will have their own variant with varying effectiveness (and possibly some bad side effects), I don't see things very rosy for next few years.

It will be probably good enough situation eventually, but I presume it will just become one of those ever-present, potentially deadly things that you can get when traveling to exotic places like malaria or chikungunya.

But this time, you can also get it in your grocery shop/kindergarten/work.

The thing is, if everybody really followed all the rules, the virus would die on its own due to R being close to 0. But that's pure fantasy when I look outside, always somebody not wearing mask properly (ie under the nose), skipping wearing it with pretense of drinking.

Re: Ten countries kept out Covid, but did they win?

#24

Post by saiya-jin »

euudheehdy wrote: post #9
marmshallow wrote: post #7

Seeing as all these terrible economic outcomes would happen whether or not the virus infected the population, I think this is a pretty solid win and a poor article title.

Most of the terrible economic outcomes have been due to the lockdowns not the actual deaths. Losing 1% of the population isn't a massive economic blow when that 1% is predominantly composed of no and low income groups, it is however a moral blow. The difference is important however because, while early on total lock-downs made sense, the reality is that if only 1% of the population is at risk of death then the other…

You don't know exactly who is going to die though. If you would go by the risk factors, then just a single one - obesity, would put tens of millions of americans into risk group.

And similar logic can be applied to many other countries struggling with obesity (latino, south east asians and so on).

Now we put in cardiovascular, lung and immunity issues. Add older people. And suddenly its not 1% but much, much larger group.

Re: Ten countries kept out Covid, but did they win?

#25

Post by joshuahughes »

LoSboccacc wrote: post #12
vmception wrote: post #3

I don’t understand how people can see a global response and repercussions like this and then politicize their local government’s attempt to keep the R0 below 2.5.

a day ago there were estimate that anout basically everyone in NYC has having been in contact with the virus at some point and the city doesn't look like a wasteland. lethality was grossly overestimate and subsequent decision built off not only partial and incomplete data, but flat out wrong. would full lock down have been the best course of action? probably still so. but the extent and duration and especially now fo…

“but both now and yesterday people with a wide view of the issue were basically ostracized and chased away as if they were flat earther or antivaxxer”

Agreed. I’ve been quite taken aback, seeing HN’s response to Covid threads. I’ve always assumed the community was willing to ask tough questions and entertain alternative points of view that are backed by data, but with Covid there’s a complete unwillingness to think about anything other than “deaths bad, lockdown good”. It’s a shame that more nuanced comments get voted down so hard as they’re important to discuss too.

My theory: There must be something about us tech industry types that makes a ‘germaphobic’ response more likely. For instance, the WHO have said there’s no point wiping down food packaging because it just isn’t a vector for the virus. Yet I’ve seen dozens of HN comments about doing this and/or leaving groceries in quarantine for days. It really isn’t rational or logical and yet it’s this response that gets the support of the community. Very strange.

Re: Ten countries kept out Covid, but did they win?

#26

Post by INTPenis »

40% of GDP from tourism. So in a perfect world now it would be time for the government to take that saved tourism money and support their citizens so they survive/stay until the next tourist season. Or borrow money from other nations to do so.

And is it really sane to stay 100% covid free? I mean I would assume that when tourism starts up again it will start a wave of covid infections in these countries.

Re: Ten countries kept out Covid, but did they win?

#27

Post by Nextgrid »

saiya-jin wrote: post #23
adrianN wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Partially effective vaccines are good enough to basically eradicate the virus if everybody gets them. No country will continue pandemic measures after a sufficient number of people are vaccinated.

Considering various aspects like anti-vaxers, very remote tribes etc. as true eradication with 7 billions is most probably impossible. Everybody will never get them. Also, seems like every state will have their own variant with varying effectiveness (and possibly some bad side effects), I don't see things very rosy for next few years. It will be probably good enough situation eventually, but I presume it will just be…

Considering that Covid can be lethal I’d assume anti-vaxxers would be a self-resolving problem if given enough time.

Re: Ten countries kept out Covid, but did they win?

#28

Post by thesizeofa »

shadowprofile77 wrote: post #22

Awful lot of privileged software engineer types with relatively cushy lockdown-friendly jobs, good income, savings, covered healthcare and good homes that leap to criticize as selfish, greedy, irresponsible and dumb anyone who insists that economic consequences from lockdown are possibly, just maybe, for many, many hundreds of millions of people all around the world something a bit more than just going short of trave…

Do you not grasp that in most countries where lockdowns took place people had government support? Do you not fathom that most countries have publicly accessible healthcare? Do you not understand that not all countries ditch their vulnerable under the bus in such unprecedented times? Is it such an alien concept the fact that us, the high earning developers pay tax precisely to help those in need? What a strange view of the world some of you have in a country pretending to be rich, yet it collapses at first sign of real trouble.

Re: Ten countries kept out Covid, but did they win?

#29

Post by gassius »

LoSboccacc wrote: post #12
vmception wrote: post #3

I don’t understand how people can see a global response and repercussions like this and then politicize their local government’s attempt to keep the R0 below 2.5.

a day ago there were estimate that anout basically everyone in NYC has having been in contact with the virus at some point and the city doesn't look like a wasteland. lethality was grossly overestimate and subsequent decision built off not only partial and incomplete data, but flat out wrong. would full lock down have been the best course of action? probably still so. but the extent and duration and especially now fo…

I find very interesting that this is being downvoted. I mean, is not even a hard negationist opinion.

There is a mix of arguments and opinions in this post, in my view some are totally debatable (ie, very unlikely that everyone in NYC has been in contact with the virus, or the 'flat out wrong' characterization of the initial data), and some are totally agreeable (ie, why the issue, and the discussion of it, is political and should be debated).

But at the end of the day, is a comment that is not insulting or attacking anyone or other political positions, so why the downvotes? If it is because some people dont like any questioning of the goverment's response to the covid-19 pandemic (as vary as it is in the world) then those are just proving the point that some views are "basically ostracized and chased away as if they were flat earther or antivaxxer" which is a very very dangerous path to be in.

Re: Ten countries kept out Covid, but did they win?

#30

Post by joshuahughes »

thesizeofa wrote: post #28
shadowprofile77 wrote: post #22

Awful lot of privileged software engineer types with relatively cushy lockdown-friendly jobs, good income, savings, covered healthcare and good homes that leap to criticize as selfish, greedy, irresponsible and dumb anyone who insists that economic consequences from lockdown are possibly, just maybe, for many, many hundreds of millions of people all around the world something a bit more than just going short of trave…

Do you not grasp that in most countries where lockdowns took place people had government support? Do you not fathom that most countries have publicly accessible healthcare? Do you not understand that not all countries ditch their vulnerable under the bus in such unprecedented times? Is it such an alien concept the fact that us, the high earning developers pay tax precisely to help those in need? What a strange view o…

Why the extreme response? Thousands and thousands of folks here in the UK are losing their jobs and therefore their homes. I assume the same thing is happening elsewhere. We have safety nets, but payouts are often nowhere near enough to match income that’s been lost. It’s a real disappointment to me that HN has decided there’s only one right way to talk about the Covid response, and every other point of view is idiotic or evil. Whatever happened to nuance?
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