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Patrick Collison's Questions

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Re: Patrick Collison's Questions

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing I have found about HN in general is a refusal to ponder the meaning of money itself. 1 Why is a small amount of inflation considered a "good thing"? In just one generation, inflation targets reduce the purchasing power by nearly 50%. What if you knew that assumption lead to all kinds of terrible outcomes, but they only surfaced after 7-8 election cycles? 2 Why is a gold standard considered impractical? Afte…

It’s very challenging to ponder these questions in a public forum, because so many people hold uninformed or nonsensical views on them. Whenever I’ve tried to discuss them, I’ve had to fight off very basic misunderstandings like: * The Fed prints money by giving free gifts to banks. That is, QE for $500 billion means banks are $500 billion richer. * The first person to get a new dollar has an unfair advantage, since…

> The Fed prints money by giving free gifts to banks. That is, QE for $500 billion means banks are $500 billion richer.

This is a straw man, $500 billion in loans (normally above market value for collateral) means banks could be anywhere from 0-500 billion dollars richer but they are certainly not poorer.

>The first person to get a new dollar has an unfair advantage, since they can spend it before the rest of the economy knows about the extra dollar.

Have you seen the stock market lately? Investors have done well in this new easy money economy and until that money trickles down they certainly have it much easier than they otherwise would.

>Inflation is a deterministic function of the money supply. There wouldn’t be inflation if we didn’t create more money.

In the long run this is true. Especially the second statement, it's almost trivial to prove: Imagine an island with 10 dollars in circulation. The amount of goods produced doubles, and everyone is able to trade and consume all the goods. The price of the goods must necessarily be cut in half on average, so that the 10 dollars are able to pay for all the goods.

Re: Patrick Collison's Questions

#152
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

homogenous societies are inherently more efficient? the reality is the beauty of America is that we are a heterogeneous one, but there are of course some downsides to that.

Considering that I use at least four languages[1] every day, and am thankful[2] to be living someplace that has not yet been completely overrun by chains and big box stores, I'd argue the assertion of a "heterogenous" US might need defending. On the original question: I think switzerland is nice for two reasons. (a) we didn't blow ourselves up twice last century, which meant that even with little absolute growth we w…

In the city I grew up in, official notices were routinely made in English, Spanish, and Vietnamese, and I regularly encountered people speaking Korean and Chinese as well. Even my grandma's rural town, with a population of under 5,000 and an hour's drive to the closest city, has people and restaurants representing four or five different nationalities. If you're perceiving the US as a country where everyone only speaks English and only eats at McDonalds, that's not accurate.

Re: Patrick Collison's Questions

#153
A few of interest to me:

1. Is steelmanned buddhism wrong in important ways? Can some sort of minimal set of claims version of buddhism even be steelmanned consistently?

2. The joint-stock corporation appears to be the most scalable coordination tech ever invented. What is the embedding space of the things that make it possible and what else is in the space?

3. Does most progress come from pairs of people in high bandwidth collaboration? How could we test this and how could we scale the matching problem implied? If this is true why aren't there more famously successful twins? (also mentioned by Gwern)

4. Are dramatically better matching algorithms possible (lemon markets, costly signal bandwidth saturation)? Ones good enough that they would encourage more geographic mobility?

5. What's the natural embedding space of 'values'? If discovered and rendered tractable would this solve problems with our current attempts at formalization (VNM, Arrow's impossibility, various decision theory gotchas etc)?

6. Why are all the general purpose 'how to navigate life' resources so poor in quality? (also mentioned by Patrick)

7. Does DNA (and RNA?) transcription error rate emerge as a natural kind in large scale biological prediction? Does this create natural limits on malleability of biological systems?

8. Is there low hanging fruit in CNS imaging? Would this directly lead to dramatically better mental health interventions?

9. Can research stagnation be undermined by funding more research review enabling more cross collaborative legibility of researchers into each other's work?

Re: Patrick Collison's Questions

#154
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or homogeneity.

It's shocking how HN is just overlooking this trait in addition to the very many related things in this regard that we would consider in America VERY "right-wing" to put it kindly. Having Japanese family members over there and listening to their remarks amuses me since I hear their candid opinions on race and such, but uh... Americans who idolize the country and identify as "progressive" or "liberal" would probably d…

Well, unless your premise is that the less savoury aspects of some of Japan’s citizens’ views are responsible for the aspects of their country and society that we might admire (and I don’t think you are saying that) then this is tangential to the question we are discussing.

It’s not unreasonable to acknowledge or even admire some aspects of a person, a company, or a country, while also being aware that there are other aspects that are less admirable.

Re: Patrick Collison's Questions

#155

"Why are so many things so much nicer in Switzerland and Japan?" Figuring out why this is without fully attributing it to culture has been of great fascination to me. It really is mindblowing just how _good_ things are in Japan, perhaps they're just highly optimized for tourism? The cleanliness, the service, the great care people place in doing things and in their work is just amazing. Anyone here have more insights…

As a Japan resident and expat from a small south pacific nation you may of heard of recently, I don't find Japanese "baseline execution quality" to be categorically better. There are a lot of places where it is worse.

> Buses and trains are better (and more punctual); Japan's public transport is great.(where there is money)

> low-end food is tastier; 50/50 on this. Maybe gyudon or kaiten-zushi are tasty, but a lot of the low end food is over processed, over packaged, over sweetened, uninspired imitations of food, factory made, prepared by low wage workers, with all the challenging and exciting bits take out.

> cheap hotels are more comfortable; you even get complimentary right wing nationalist literature in the bedside table.. but This is probably true.

> streets are cleaner; People just throw things where no one can see, when no one is looking. They neatly tie up their convenience store rubbish in its plastic bag, and throw it into a stream. dump their fireworks and BBQS on the beach, fluorescent lightbulbs in the forest,

> grocery stores and corner stores are nicer; Every thing comes in sooo much plastic, and the selection is very limited. Corner stores are all franchises of a few big players, who don't share much profit with local owners or suppliers. sure Fami-chikin is tasty, if you don't think about where it came from.

> ostensibly unremarkable villages have more beautiful buildings and are more pleasant places to spend a few days.;

Sure they are nice to "spend a few days". But a village is supposed to be the centre peoples lives. These nice villages with cool old buildings are emptying out fast and becoming abandoned along with the rural way of life because of the lack of immigrations and the economy being so centralised on Tokyo.

It strikes me that all the writer's points are very much about what appeals to a middle class visitor. Is this a good metric to judge a society by?

Re: Patrick Collison's Questions

#156
Lovely list. As for real estate and housing prices: interest rates are ridiculously low, once you account for that the price increase from the 1970's to today makes really good sense. Corrected for inflation it is now much cheaper to own rather than to rent real estate even though the sticker price of the houses went up.

Rents then predictably increased because houses/apartments that got bought reduced the supply available for renting out. Especially in the bigger cities where the economy is a bit better rents have skyrocketed.

But the cost of owning a house as a function of take home pay has dropped. The same house that cost my parents a ridiculously high mortgage (10% was pretty normal in the 70's here) can now be had for a fraction of the inflation adjusted wages today. Even though the on-paper value of the house is roughly 10x what it cost back then.

To fix the rental market a lot of new housing would have to be built, but then you run into zoning issues, transportation issues, the price of land and other limitations that make it hard to expand affordable housing for cities. Historically institutional investors (for instance: pension funds) would fund these developments but since they now have shorter time horizons for their ROI and want higher returns they are not as interested as they used to be to pick this up.

This problem will not resolve easily or even at all as long as people are willing to pay high rents and the market is as restricted as it is I would expect rents to continue to go up. Even an increase in interest will likely not return all that many houses to the rental market because that would require the sticker price of houses to come down, which hardly even happens. Even in the 2009 financial crises housing prices reacted only in a limited way: people had bought in at a certain price level and could not let go of their properties without ending up with a debt to the bank, a situation best avoided.

Re: Patrick Collison's Questions

#157

"Why are so many things so much nicer in Switzerland and Japan?" Figuring out why this is without fully attributing it to culture has been of great fascination to me. It really is mindblowing just how _good_ things are in Japan, perhaps they're just highly optimized for tourism? The cleanliness, the service, the great care people place in doing things and in their work is just amazing. Anyone here have more insights…

Likewise, I find understanding why Switzerland is so successful very interesting – especially as it differs dramatically in approach from the other countries in Europe held up as successful and happy societies (the more northerly Nordic countries).

I can’t give a full explanation, but there are a couple of unique aspects of Switzerland that I believe may influence the situation heavily:

1. A strong aspect of Swiss culture is to expect responsibility and interest in the affairs of Switzerland from its citizens. This is reflected, for example, in the very strict rules and tests implemented for foreigners wishing to assume Swiss citizenship, which include a wide variety of questions on the history and current affairs.

2. Allied to this, they have implemented probably the most direct form of democracy I’m aware of in the world. The country is divided into a number of cantons (roughly equivalent to American states) which are largely self governing and self determining, including (for example) setting dramatically different rates of taxation. Further, many issues are decided by way of referendum: votes take place relatively frequently. Lastly, in theory any citizen can generate a new law: a series of votes would be taken on a new suggestion, first at a local level, then at a cantonal level, and then potentially at the national level.

Economically though one aspect I don’t understand is how Switzerland can support such high salaries and high costs of living, in contrast to other countries. (What came first: the high cost of living, or the high salaries?) And therefore with it being an acknowledged expensive place for businesses to operate (in terms of salary costs) why do multinational businesses choose to open or continue operations there, in contrast to other more affordable locations? (Also noting that there is significant skilled inward migration, to support the needs of some of those large businesses.)

Re: Patrick Collison's Questions

#158
post #28

On the Chinese research question: Just wait a decade. In all likelihood, I am permanently departing academia in about a month. The underlying reason is structural -- neither our funding agency nor our institution is willing to yield on a fundamental sticking point that is causing all of our young researchers to leave. I am about to join them. There is literally no path forward. In the decade that I have watched my wo…

I think about this a lot as well. To a scientist, funding more science and scientists seems like a no brainer. It's not like everything's worked out, we are inured against all the reasonable existential threats, and we all live to 150 in perfect health. There seems like a clear line between scientific discoveries and almost everything that is good about the world. If everyone in the world took military spending for one year, and made a huge fund to give money to scientists, it at least has a chance to be one of the most beneficial actions in human history. It would also be an eye-watering waste of money, as in literally money disappearing into the void.

This is the thing. Science is a massive waste of money. It is the most important waste of money there is, but it is still a waste of money. If you try to make it less of a waste of money, it stops being worthwhile. To any sort of accountant, it looks like setting money on fire. Academia has shown the ability to proliferate and essentially soak up as much money as they can. Now at the moment, China can see that line between funding and future good. They can tolerate the huge wastage it entails. They are also a functionally permanent regime.

In western countries, my opinion is that science funding will contract over time. I think one of the reasons is that society is ageing. This is partly an economic effect, where the cost of caring for the elderly goes up, the number of people working and paying taxes goes down, and there is less money to fund science. In my country, the biggest government spending ticket is aged care, not including healthcare. But I think the main effect is psychological - more elderly leaders and a more elderly society have a harder time seeing the point of funding science. I'm not saying this is good or bad, only that it is there. In the end, a society decides on the appetite it has for funding science.

Re: Patrick Collison's Questions

#159

"Why are certain things getting so much more expensive?" That list is pretty much rank ordered by the amount of non-substitutable human labor involved per unit. Everything in red is a pretty universal need (health, education, child care, housing, food), while the blues are mostly wants. So we want medical care, but that requires a lot of labor, and each of those workers requires housing, but that's supply constrained…

And to be fair that graph is weird -100%? If something lost 100% of its value it is now free? I don't think TVs are free now.

It is 95%, not 100%... and amazingly that looks accurate.

As an example, a 32" CRT with remote control (eg Sony Trinitron) cost about $1500-2000 back in 1997.

Today, you can buy a 32" TV for $85, delivered. And even though this will be "Brand X" and not Sony, it will have better picture quality, more functionality, be more reliable and use less power to boot.

Re: Patrick Collison's Questions

#160
on "What's the right way to understand and model personality?"

Personality is an outdated concept, personality types triply so. There is no fundamental stability of personality, just behavior context.

Christian Miller - The character gap https://philosophybites.com/2019/02/christian-miller-on-the-... https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2016/06/24/4818596...

Robert Sapolsky - Introduction to Human Behavioral Biology https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNnIGh9g6fA

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