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Patrick Collison's Questions

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Re: Patrick Collison's Questions

#21
post #5

“ Is Bloom's "Two Sigma" phenomenon real? If so, what do we do about it? Educational psychologist Benjamin Bloom found that one-on-one tutoring using mastery learning led to a two sigma(!) improvement in student performance. The results were replicated. " Does anyone know if this also true of learning & development in companies? For example sales training or training

I don't have full answers for all of your questions, but my colleagues doing Learning Science often mention this two-sigma improvement, and are working on computer-based cognitive tutors that can adapt and model what a student is learning. I vaguely recall that these cognitive tutors are at the 1-sigma level for certain subjects (primarily STEM subjects), but that was many years ago and I'm not sure of the details.

Here is one example abstract from one of my colleagues (sorry I don't have the full paper): https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/3-540-44566-8_14

Cognitive Computer Tutors: Solving the Two-Sigma Problem

Individual human tutoring is the most effective and most expensive form of instruction. Students working with individual human tutors reach achievement levels as much as two standard deviations higher than students in conventional instruction (that is, 50% of tutored students score higher than 98% of the comparison group). Two early 20th-century innovations attempted to offer benefits of individualized instruction on a broader basis: (1) mechanized individualized feedback (via teaching machines and computers) and (2) mastery learning (individualized pacing of instruction). On average each of these innovations yields about a half standard deviation achievement effect. More recently, cognitive computer tutors have implemented these innovations in the context of a cognitive model of problem solving. This paper examines the achievement effect size of these two types of student-adapted instruction in a cognitive programming tutor. Results suggest that cognitive tutors have closed the gap with and arguably surpass human tutors.

Re: Patrick Collison's Questions

#22

"Why are so many things so much nicer in Switzerland and Japan?" Figuring out why this is without fully attributing it to culture has been of great fascination to me. It really is mindblowing just how _good_ things are in Japan, perhaps they're just highly optimized for tourism? The cleanliness, the service, the great care people place in doing things and in their work is just amazing. Anyone here have more insights…

...have you considered that things are much nicer there but at great cost to the sections of people they consider "not nice?" Especially in Japan?

Re: Patrick Collison's Questions

#23

One common answer for many questions comparing past to present : "More regulations" This is not necessarily a bad thing, but often it is becoming a nightmare of labyrinthine proportions to navigate, which hinders new entrants.

I wonder if it's reasonable to talk about some of these things separately from the rest of the economy. San Francisco can't build a bus lane, but it can build the hell out of some software. (You might argue that our productivity has gone down there too, but I'd say the social impact has never been higher.)

Maybe with "hard" infrastructure being a bit old-fashioned, or bogged down in red tape, maybe the entrepreneurial or organising or effective talent moved into other industries?

It sounds a little self-congratulatory, so I don't like the idea, but it's hard (for me) to see something like SpaceX as something other than a competent "can do" entrant into a stale old industry.

I don't know what lessons we might learn from that, though. Room for small upstart players in industries (especially around government spending) might be one.

Re: Patrick Collison's Questions

#24

(I chose to delete this because it's not a sufficiently positive response.)

There are different questions that we have at each level in Maslow’s pyramid, and HN tends to focus on the last two levels - but that doesn’t mean the questions at the other levels are any less important. There are other site, communities and blogs that cater to people at these levels.

A one size fits all solution wouldn’t be good for any of the levels, and it doesn’t mean people are one level are any better or worse than people at others.

Re: Patrick Collison's Questions

#25

"Why are so many things so much nicer in Switzerland and Japan?" Figuring out why this is without fully attributing it to culture has been of great fascination to me. It really is mindblowing just how _good_ things are in Japan, perhaps they're just highly optimized for tourism? The cleanliness, the service, the great care people place in doing things and in their work is just amazing. Anyone here have more insights…

I visited Japan and was just astounded at how much better the society is run.

As a tourist, my obviously naive impression was of a place that is incredibly well organised, that seems to have no trouble investing in its own infrastructure, that is extremely safe and clean and generally prosperous. Where the people seem to have a sense of joy and fun.

Just. so. well. organised.

I really loved Japan. My favorite country in so many ways. I really wish I'd visited when younger and maybe lived there for a while.

I did feel unsafe and threatened during my trip there at one point when an Australian tourist became belligerent and angry when someone (not Japanese of course) stepped ahead of him in a queue. I felt ashamed at his behavior.

Re: Patrick Collison's Questions

#26

(I chose to delete this because it's not a sufficiently positive response.)

"Where will the money come from to get the car fixed?" is a very personal question; answering it well would require knowing a lot about the person asking, and what their life circumstances, talents, resources, and obstacles were. This makes it harder to discuss on HN (or most other Internet sites), since these are very large groups who are mostly strangers, and don't know that much about each other. Questions about economic equality, the cost of housing, career advice, and so on in general are reasonably well represented here, I think.

Re: Patrick Collison's Questions

#27
post #5

“ Is Bloom's "Two Sigma" phenomenon real? If so, what do we do about it? Educational psychologist Benjamin Bloom found that one-on-one tutoring using mastery learning led to a two sigma(!) improvement in student performance. The results were replicated. " Does anyone know if this also true of learning & development in companies? For example sales training or training

Feels like the Khan Academy apps do something like this. You progress through a tree of knowledge and can’t move to any next node until you master the one you’re on, demonstrated by solving problems. It also gives you all the help you need to achieve that mastery.

Re: Patrick Collison's Questions

#28
On the Chinese research question: Just wait a decade.

In all likelihood, I am permanently departing academia in about a month. The underlying reason is structural -- neither our funding agency nor our institution is willing to yield on a fundamental sticking point that is causing all of our young researchers to leave. I am about to join them. There is literally no path forward.

In the decade that I have watched my world-leading research group wither, our Chinese colleagues have expanded their laboratories by 4-5x, appear to be well-resourced, and are poised to lead the world on all fronts within the decade.

An excellent colleague of mine, who had done excellent work for US particle-physics experiments, went to China for a high-energy physics faculty interview. On arrival, he was surprised to find that there appeared to be another candidate competing for the position. He did his best, as did the other candidate. As he prepared to depart, he asked whether or not it had been a competition for the open position. The reply? "We had one position, but we liked both of your talks so much, we are extending offers to both of you." There was no matching US offer of which I am aware: he accepted.

That essentially never happens these days in the United States. It is a story the likes of which one might have heard from 1950-1970.

Chinese physics results are continuing to gain in reliability. Where once we saw quite a bit of copy-catting, Chinese fundamental science research is beginning to transition into regularly breaking new ground.

Wait a decade.

We should welcome this development with open arms. A billion smart people, with equal potential, should be able to turn out roughly three times as much research as the 0.34 billion smart people in the US. We can encourage that research at the same time that we must stand against the regime's attacks on democracy in Hong Kong, the atrocities occurring in Xinjiang, their surveillance state, threatening the independence of Taiwan, enabling North Korea, and more. ( The US has dirty laundry, too: Our President is incompetent. Vote! )

Re: Patrick Collison's Questions

#29

"Why are so many things so much nicer in Switzerland and Japan?" Figuring out why this is without fully attributing it to culture has been of great fascination to me. It really is mindblowing just how _good_ things are in Japan, perhaps they're just highly optimized for tourism? The cleanliness, the service, the great care people place in doing things and in their work is just amazing. Anyone here have more insights…

Ethno states with shared culture and little internal division due to racial tensions tend to run quite well.

See: China, Korea, Norway, Denmark, Czech republic

Re: Patrick Collison's Questions

#30
"Why are certain things getting so much more expensive?"

That list is pretty much rank ordered by the amount of non-substitutable human labor involved per unit. Everything in red is a pretty universal need (health, education, child care, housing, food), while the blues are mostly wants. So we want medical care, but that requires a lot of labor, and each of those workers requires housing, but that's supply constrained in much of the country, and they have be educated, but college cost is rising, and their employees need child care, and the child care workers need to go to the doctor ...

If there was a way to reduce the cost of living (my hobby horse is dramatically increasing the amount of by-right housing permitted to be built in an area), then that would ripple through all of these industries. High and increasing costs and wages make labor-intensive industries much more expensive by comparison.

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