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Data from Chernobyl and Fukushima provide answers about the risks of nuclear

medium.com

111–120 of 166 posts

Re: Data from Chernobyl and Fukushima provide answers about the risks of nuclear

#111

Seems like a very one-sided article that focuses predominantly on health risks and points out that relocation might not have been warranted and seems to suggest that this shifts the calculus. There's however not just health risk but also economic risk. There's different estimations of how much the entire Fukushima catastrophy cost but estimates range from dozens of billions of dollars to hundreds of billions[1]. And…

Those economic costs are tied to the health risks aren’t they.

not necessarily. Dismantling a nuclear plant or in this case waste clearage itself is a gargantuan effort. Scrapping ordinary nuclear plants already costs billions.

Re: Data from Chernobyl and Fukushima provide answers about the risks of nuclear

#112
Interesting how they call out the potential to use the J value to make public policy recommnedations but we’ve yet to really see them.

I for one, would love to see some analysis of the value of lockdowns across society, i particular the prioritization of the older and more susceptible healthwise, vs the young and economically vulnerable.

Re: Data from Chernobyl and Fukushima provide answers about the risks of nuclear

#113
post #109
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When bridges fail, they don't affect potentially millions of people's health. If you are saying bad policy decisions are inherently less scaling than nuclear disasters, I would remind you the Great Leap Forward and the tens of millions of people dead as a result of the famine in just a few years. Sure that was an outlier event, and so was the nuclear disasters of past. The problem is, with nuclear there seems to be…

Sure, GLF focused on idealistic purity rather than expertise. There are also a lot more agricultural experts in the US than nuclear experts.

> Sure, GLF focused on idealistic purity rather than expertise

1986 USSR bureaucracy didn’t fail only for a lack of expertise either.

> There are also a lot more agricultural experts in the US than nuclear experts.

It is not a numbers game of that sort. If anything, public misinformation being amplified in influence through social media affects expert based political will negatively insofar the topic is ripe for emotional biases, not lack of real experts.

Re: Data from Chernobyl and Fukushima provide answers about the risks of nuclear

#114

Interesting how they call out the potential to use the J value to make public policy recommnedations but we’ve yet to really see them. I for one, would love to see some analysis of the value of lockdowns across society, i particular the prioritization of the older and more susceptible healthwise, vs the young and economically vulnerable.

The team already did that.

http://jvalue.co.uk/covid-19.php

Re: Data from Chernobyl and Fukushima provide answers about the risks of nuclear

#115
I read the article, and looked at his bio. He is not a nuclear scientist nor a analytics professional. His previous articles are pro nuke, which is fine, but to take his words wholesale with no bibliography or links is asking too much for this reader.

Most of all, he quantifies stress and exhaustion as a primary cause of death for those evacuated. How did he figure that out?

Re: Data from Chernobyl and Fukushima provide answers about the risks of nuclear

#116
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep in mind that these reactors are only that safe because they're operated in an environment that's very different from your typical utility company. RCOH procedures alone would make civil use prohibitively expensive.

RCOH means https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refueling_and_overhaul apparently. But I don't know why this would make civil use much more expensive.

The procedures cost billions and are usually scheduled to last about 46 months.

Refuelling and maintenance of civil reactors takes place more often (usually every 18 to 24 months) and is much quicker - about 45 days, not months). Gen IV reactors even allow for on-line refuelling so the reactor can continue to operate with no down-time.

Re: Data from Chernobyl and Fukushima provide answers about the risks of nuclear

#117
post #6

Ah yes, decidedly pro-nuclear stance here. The first obvious omissions that come to mind are: 1. The evacuations took place while the meltdown was ongoing, evacuating was the sane choice given the available knowledge at the time. 2. There is no data on how not evacuating would have affected the people, since that was not done, making that comparison with such certainty seems a bit overconfident. Nuclear in general: H…

> How about showing me a sound final (100k yr) storage for nuclear waste, built and ready, before you operate any more nuclear reactors?

So you'd rather breathe the waste NOW from your power source instead of storing it where something maybe, possibly might go wrong?

Waste is not a good talking point if you want to be anti-nuclear given what we know about just exactly how bad air pollution is--and the medical science around air pollution just keeps bringing more and more bad news.

You could have a Fukushima every year and it wouldn't match the harmful effects of fossil fuel air pollution.

Re: Data from Chernobyl and Fukushima provide answers about the risks of nuclear

#118

Many arguments for handling bad things often do not take into account the unintended consequences of that specific handling. This is one of them. The lockdowns for Coronavirus is another. I don't know which way it actual falls (lockdowns still extended life expectancy or the reduced life expectancy) but I will be curious in a couple of years what the data will show us. Some people are absolutely certain X will be the…

This. Or, the unknowable lost opportunities that never materialized. How many relationships never formed, how many business never created, etc is unmeasurable but absolutely real and the impact from those lost opportunities will be felt in some way shape and form...

Great point. There is a lot of lost opportunities that is probably immeasurable.

I've always said there are tradeoffs to every solution. And we may not have all the information to even know how bad or good a tradeoff is.

No solution is perfect.

Re: Data from Chernobyl and Fukushima provide answers about the risks of nuclear

#119
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, GLF focused on idealistic purity rather than expertise. There are also a lot more agricultural experts in the US than nuclear experts.

> Sure, GLF focused on idealistic purity rather than expertise 1986 USSR bureaucracy didn’t fail only for a lack of expertise either. > There are also a lot more agricultural experts in the US than nuclear experts. It is not a numbers game of that sort. If anything, public misinformation being amplified in influence through social media affects expert based political will negatively insofar the topic is ripe for emot…

> 1986 USSR bureaucracy didn’t fail only for a lack of expertise either.

I think you're talking Chernobyl here, without actually saying Chernobyl. Again they were arguably pushing ideology over science -- in many ways to save cost. Then making any criticisms about safety state secrets so no one could know about them.

It's worth noting that Gorbachev believed that Chernobyl led to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1992, six years later.

> If anything, public misinformation being amplified in influence through social media affects expert based political will negatively insofar the topic is ripe for emotional biases, not lack of real experts.

True, but that cuts your argument. As it turns questions of science into ideological ones. If you're a farmer you can go to your local extension office, and ask questions about herbicide and fertilizers and planting schedules without government interference -- essentially expanding knowledge.

If Russia ran ads on FB that said the best time to plant corn was in November of the following year, there would be a lot of laughter.

There is no such thing as extension offices for nuclear science -- ergo making it even more ripe for the idea that you're talking about.

On the other hand, people trust vaccines less, and there has been a concerted effort to cause public distrust. Imagine what would happen if that happened to nuclear scientists. Worse, there would be only few people to make that argument against it. With vaccines there were lots of people that could, and still largely failed.

Re: Data from Chernobyl and Fukushima provide answers about the risks of nuclear

#120

I read the article, and looked at his bio. He is not a nuclear scientist nor a analytics professional. His previous articles are pro nuke, which is fine, but to take his words wholesale with no bibliography or links is asking too much for this reader. Most of all, he quantifies stress and exhaustion as a primary cause of death for those evacuated. How did he figure that out?

Do you mean the author of the article or the study?

The author provides links to the study. You can also just google NREFS.

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