121–130 of 236 posts
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Perfect task for AI.
Given this comment, I'm not sure you know what "AI" or "perfect" mean.
If we put half the energy we use up arguing about Oumuamua into detecting more interstellar objects we would have the data to end this debate. I'm a fan of the pragmatic mathematical approach. This was the first thing detected. The chances that the first result is also any sort of outlier are very slim. Detect and track some more of these objects. I'd bet good money that Oumuamua's motion is very explainable once we…
> If we put half the energy we use up arguing about Oumuamua into detecting more interstellar objects we would have the data to end this debate This HN comment was just the motivation I needed to get off my computer and rededicate myself to polishing eighteen 1.32m gold-plated beryllium hexagonal mirror segments.
My pet theory (which is not intended to be taken too seriously) is that it is indeed a discarded light sail, and that light sail in particular was used to transport a Von Neumann probe which detached at some point after the object entered our solar system but before we first observed it. This detachment, in addition to leaving the sail tumbling, would have changed its trajectory, meaning our estimation of which direc…
"Colonization of Mercury appears to be a very real and practical possibility, whereas colonization of Mars or the other planets, moons or asteroids is really more in the realm of fantasy."
A big advantage of Mercury over mars is higher light intensity: "One very important advantage is the high solar light intensity, which is stronger than on Earth by a factor of 10.6 at perihelion and 4.6 at aphelion"
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If the mission of the probe is exploration then it doesn’t need to consume all of the resources of a solar system. It just needs enough to make a few copies to reach the nearest handful of stars. If they are using light sails as propulsion they probably need barely anything. I don’t have a hard time believing that an advanced civilization would choose hiding as the default method of exploration. Anything from the dar…
While it's entirely possible they'd have a good reason to be stealthy, I don't think it's likely to be anything we've thought of. The Prime Directive is a mushy human emotional idea, not something that makes any logical sense for a space-faring civilization to follow. If there's any competition out there among space-faring civilizations, none of them are going to tie their hands behind their backs by refusing to touc…
¹ through influencing politicians and the rich and powerful to keep poisoning the Earth with extreme pollution.
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> Realistically, though, it's too much of a coincidence that such a probe would first arrive so soon after we gained the ability to conceive of it. It is based on TIME but our conception of it would be independent. I think a lot of what's part of the drake equation is merited on overlap. It's entirely possible that other civilizations have been created and died out LONG before mammals even evolved. IF you factor in j…
> I don't really have a conversation with the bacteria infecting a wound Could it be because you know they won't reply? That's the case with most animals. Talking to a random dog or cat (relatively intelligent creatures) and knowing they don't understand a thing you say just kind of makes it pointless. Of course they'll understand simple universal body actions and react, but nothing more. If there was a bacteria or a…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If the mission of the probe is exploration then it doesn’t need to consume all of the resources of a solar system. It just needs enough to make a few copies to reach the nearest handful of stars. If they are using light sails as propulsion they probably need barely anything. I don’t have a hard time believing that an advanced civilization would choose hiding as the default method of exploration. Anything from the dar…
While it's entirely possible they'd have a good reason to be stealthy, I don't think it's likely to be anything we've thought of. The Prime Directive is a mushy human emotional idea, not something that makes any logical sense for a space-faring civilization to follow. If there's any competition out there among space-faring civilizations, none of them are going to tie their hands behind their backs by refusing to touc…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
While it's entirely possible they'd have a good reason to be stealthy, I don't think it's likely to be anything we've thought of. The Prime Directive is a mushy human emotional idea, not something that makes any logical sense for a space-faring civilization to follow. If there's any competition out there among space-faring civilizations, none of them are going to tie their hands behind their backs by refusing to touc…
I’m not sure that reasoning holds up. There’s no reason to believe that “mushy human emotional ideas” are not the norm. There’s no data to support that claim since humanity is the only example we have of intelligence. So for the sake of the argument I’m going to define alien intelligence as similar to human intelligence. I’d also inquire what the point of having a Von Neumann probe consume all of a system would be? I…
If there's any competition between civilizations, then it's even more obvious that each one will be racing to claim any star system that isn't already claimed. But even with no competition, it makes sense to spread rapidly.
If you don't find that intuitively obvious, consider this: In 4.5 billion years, the Milky Way will collide with Andromeda. This presents us with a literal galactic-scale single-turn prisoner's dilemma: If intelligent life exists in Andromeda, they may already be preparing to conquer the Milky Way. If they are, and we don't prepare to fight back, they will obviously win. We won't have any ability to communicate with Andromeda to find out their intentions until it's too late. The earlier we start preparing, the more likely we are to survive.
So if I were a spacefaring civilization in the Milky Way today, I'd be doing everything I could to mobilize every star system in the galaxy in preparation to beat Andromeda. There's just no reason not to...
My pet theory (which is not intended to be taken too seriously) is that it is indeed a discarded light sail, and that light sail in particular was used to transport a Von Neumann probe which detached at some point after the object entered our solar system but before we first observed it. This detachment, in addition to leaving the sail tumbling, would have changed its trajectory, meaning our estimation of which direc…
Mercury provides solar power but you need a lot more energy to get from there to earth. The asteroid belt still provides adequate solar power with I'd guess an easier ability to 'fall on the earth'. It wasn't clear whether the goal of your invader was destruction or takeover. Falling rocks would do the destruction job.