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Mystery of interstellar visitor 'Oumuamua gets trickier

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Mystery of interstellar visitor 'Oumuamua gets trickier

#101

Post by kbenson »

burtonator wrote: post #71
kentonv wrote: post #47

My pet theory (which is not intended to be taken too seriously) is that it is indeed a discarded light sail, and that light sail in particular was used to transport a Von Neumann probe which detached at some point after the object entered our solar system but before we first observed it. This detachment, in addition to leaving the sail tumbling, would have changed its trajectory, meaning our estimation of which direc…

> Realistically, though, it's too much of a coincidence that such a probe would first arrive so soon after we gained the ability to conceive of it. It is based on TIME but our conception of it would be independent. I think a lot of what's part of the drake equation is merited on overlap. It's entirely possible that other civilizations have been created and died out LONG before mammals even evolved. IF you factor in j…

> I think it's plausible that a god would not want to talk to another intelligent civilization. Why would we? We would be to a god what bacteria is to us.

At that level of abstraction it might make more sense to think of humanity itself as an organism, and to their point of view an infant one. At the point we either either birth an AI or elevate people to digital organisms with vastly greater intelligence, then we've "matured".

There's still reasons for adults to talk to or help adolescents, mainly to help them mature well, so there might be reasons for "gods" to talk to us.

It might also be that we're only at the stage of speaking gibberish, so there's still a bit to wait.

Re: Mystery of interstellar visitor 'Oumuamua gets trickier

#102

Post by andrewflnr »

sandworm101 wrote: post #35
ekimekim wrote: post #23

> Asked if there is a clear leading candidate explanation for 'Oumuamua's acceleration, Loeb referred Live Science to a not-yet-released book he authored called "Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth," due for publication in January. I don't know enough about the science to have an informed opinion, but it seems to me that if the main skeptic is also selling a book based in their exciting…

First sign? The first was probably the irrigation canals spotted on mars. Then repeating radio signals. The face on mars. Tabby's star. Each had their day as the first sign . The first real detection won't be some slight variance that we debate for years but solid evidence. If Oumuamua was a triangle, that would be solid evidence. It isn't aliens until it is.

> The first real detection won't be some slight variance that we debate for years but solid evidence.

Don't count on this. It could well be some ambiguous anomaly in the atmospheric spectrum of an exoplanet that we only decide is real after years of alternate hypotheses.

Re: Mystery of interstellar visitor 'Oumuamua gets trickier

#103

Post by taberiand »

rendall wrote: post #28
bluedays wrote: post #2

This is pretty cool. I am constantly looking at current events and thinking to myself "what if aliens were watching this?". I feel like it sorta puts things in perspective for me. Seeing that this might be a possibility is sorta thrilling.

"what if aliens were watching this?" There is an archetype of the Mysterious Stranger, an innocent, naive observer of our culture, who finds us incomprehensible because we are Just Terrible. We make war, pollute, enslave, etc, while this archetype is pure. Examples: K-Pax, Powder, Dostoyevski's The Idiot, Crocodile Dundee all have elements of this archetype The thing is, the only reason this archetype has any meaning…

Certainly I only watch with fascination when ant colonies destroy each other, I expect we appear much the same as ants to higher life forms.

Re: Mystery of interstellar visitor 'Oumuamua gets trickier

#104

Post by pc86 »

sandworm101 wrote: post #35
ekimekim wrote: post #23

> Asked if there is a clear leading candidate explanation for 'Oumuamua's acceleration, Loeb referred Live Science to a not-yet-released book he authored called "Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth," due for publication in January. I don't know enough about the science to have an informed opinion, but it seems to me that if the main skeptic is also selling a book based in their exciting…

First sign? The first was probably the irrigation canals spotted on mars. Then repeating radio signals. The face on mars. Tabby's star. Each had their day as the first sign . The first real detection won't be some slight variance that we debate for years but solid evidence. If Oumuamua was a triangle, that would be solid evidence. It isn't aliens until it is.

The face with a mountain with coincidental lighting. Everything else has very plausible natural explanations as well.

You're hearing footsteps and hoping for zebras when it's probably horses.

Re: Mystery of interstellar visitor 'Oumuamua gets trickier

#105

Post by novalis78 »

gratalis wrote: post #93
novalis78 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking of pet theories, here is mine: There exists a sentry system of interstellar buoys that get sucked into star systems passing by. Perhaps with a solar sail, so they can control a bit which stars they want to take a closer look at. Our solar system become "recently" a candidate for obvious reasons. The probe made its analysis and plotted a fast escape, sending a tight laser beam to the next closest relay statio…

Or, in other words, the main plot line in the Inhibitor trilogy within the Revelation Space series by acclaimed sci-fi author and astrophysicist Alastair Reynolds. https://www.goodreads.com/series/56392-revelation-space

Ha! Thanks for the reading tip. I was unaware.

Re: Mystery of interstellar visitor 'Oumuamua gets trickier

#106

Post by kentonv »

throwaway316943 wrote: post #68
kentonv wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That could only be true if they are intentionally hiding from us, rather than replicating and harvesting the solar system as fast as they can. But personally I have a hard time believing that hyper-intelligent devices would care about avoiding detection by lowly biological organisms like us.

If the mission of the probe is exploration then it doesn’t need to consume all of the resources of a solar system. It just needs enough to make a few copies to reach the nearest handful of stars. If they are using light sails as propulsion they probably need barely anything. I don’t have a hard time believing that an advanced civilization would choose hiding as the default method of exploration. Anything from the dar…

While it's entirely possible they'd have a good reason to be stealthy, I don't think it's likely to be anything we've thought of.

The Prime Directive is a mushy human emotional idea, not something that makes any logical sense for a space-faring civilization to follow. If there's any competition out there among space-faring civilizations, none of them are going to tie their hands behind their backs by refusing to touch planets that have native life on them.

And under the Dark Forest, the best way to survive would be to replicate as fast as possible, consuming all available resources. They would want to hide from external, more-powerful civilizations, but they'd have no reason at all to hide from us. Hiding from us would be a strict loss for them, as it means they can't mine Earth for resources.

Re: Mystery of interstellar visitor 'Oumuamua gets trickier

#108

Post by bserge »

burtonator wrote: post #71
kentonv wrote: post #47

My pet theory (which is not intended to be taken too seriously) is that it is indeed a discarded light sail, and that light sail in particular was used to transport a Von Neumann probe which detached at some point after the object entered our solar system but before we first observed it. This detachment, in addition to leaving the sail tumbling, would have changed its trajectory, meaning our estimation of which direc…

> Realistically, though, it's too much of a coincidence that such a probe would first arrive so soon after we gained the ability to conceive of it. It is based on TIME but our conception of it would be independent. I think a lot of what's part of the drake equation is merited on overlap. It's entirely possible that other civilizations have been created and died out LONG before mammals even evolved. IF you factor in j…

> I don't really have a conversation with the bacteria infecting a wound

Could it be because you know they won't reply? That's the case with most animals. Talking to a random dog or cat (relatively intelligent creatures) and knowing they don't understand a thing you say just kind of makes it pointless. Of course they'll understand simple universal body actions and react, but nothing more.

If there was a bacteria or a cat who would reply back, or at the very least clearly understand what I'm saying, I'd be happy and amazed, and definitely would want to continue talking to them.

Re: Mystery of interstellar visitor 'Oumuamua gets trickier

#109

Post by thesizeofa »

I suppose they need to drive traffic on “scientific”american by either flouting aliens, mysteries, or objects the size of several thousands football fields or washing machines.

There is nothing alien about this space object other than its geological origin.

Re: Mystery of interstellar visitor 'Oumuamua gets trickier

#110

Post by kentonv »

adventured wrote: post #73
kentonv wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That could only be true if they are intentionally hiding from us, rather than replicating and harvesting the solar system as fast as they can. But personally I have a hard time believing that hyper-intelligent devices would care about avoiding detection by lowly biological organisms like us.

Those are not the only two options. Besides, we still routinely fail to spot asteroids until they get close to Earth or pass by. There may be more dwarf planets like Pluto, or a major planet the size of Neptune (per Caltech researchers, so called Planet Nine or Planet X) in our own solar system and we can't easily find them. No need to intentionally hide from the primitive humans that are still struggling to locate l…

The existence of other planets doesn't seem to explain why they wouldn't colonize Earth. I would expect them to go everywhere.
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