Why Can't Developers Estimate Time?

#1

Post by ashleymoran » Fri, Apr 08, 2011, 12:57 PM UTC

Why Can't Developers Estimate Time?
blog.patchspace.co.uk

Re: Why Can't Developers Estimate Time?

#2

Post by hsmyers » Fri, Apr 08, 2011, 1:10 PM UTC

Nicely complicated--- useful if the boss or client wants verbiage. If asked directly though, I usually say "If I've done it before, I know how long it takes; if not then not."

Re: Why Can't Developers Estimate Time?

#3

Post by ashleymoran » Fri, Apr 08, 2011, 1:15 PM UTC

hsmyers wrote: post #2

Nicely complicated--- useful if the boss or client wants verbiage. If asked directly though, I usually say "If I've done it before, I know how long it takes; if not then not."

Haha, yes. That is the bottom line. But once they ask "why?", then OMG, worms everywhere!

My post is definitely not suitable for most management, but in a discussion with a bunch of fellow geeks, it did fit in with the discussion.

Explaining this to management/clients is not easy. It's a problem that needs tackling, but it's a separate problem.

Re: Why Can't Developers Estimate Time?

#4

Post by oceanician » Fri, Apr 08, 2011, 1:20 PM UTC

It's because developers are rubbish for not being pyshic ;) I'm always suprised how few estimates take account of environmental contributions!!

Re: Why Can't Developers Estimate Time?

#5

Post by allenp » Fri, Apr 08, 2011, 1:22 PM UTC

It's because developers are eternally optimistic. How else can you explain someone hitting a "compile" button a hundred times a day, hoping each time to get no errors?

Re: Why Can't Developers Estimate Time?

#6

Post by ashleymoran » Fri, Apr 08, 2011, 1:25 PM UTC

oceanician wrote: post #4

It's because developers are rubbish for not being pyshic ;) I'm always suprised how few estimates take account of environmental contributions!!

Re "environmental contributions", that was part of the discussion, but thinking about it - estimating total effort and elapsed calendar time are very different!

Re: Why Can't Developers Estimate Time?

#7

Post by aycangulez » Fri, Apr 08, 2011, 1:32 PM UTC

The author refers to Don Reinertsen who is a proponent of kanban in software development. For a brief explanation of kanban and how it can help improve estimation, see: http://flow.io/how-kanban-can-help-you-increase-your-teams-c...

Re: Why Can't Developers Estimate Time?

#8

Post by ukaszg » Fri, Apr 08, 2011, 1:34 PM UTC

because they actually try to give truthful answers, instead of making up numbers like everyone else.

Re: Why Can't Developers Estimate Time?

#9

Post by oceanician » Fri, Apr 08, 2011, 1:36 PM UTC

ashleymoran wrote: post #6

oceanician wrote: post #4

It's because developers are rubbish for not being pyshic ;) I'm always suprised how few estimates take account of environmental contributions!!

Re "environmental contributions", that was part of the discussion, but thinking about it - estimating total effort and elapsed calendar time are very different!

elapsed calendar time and total effort are often the same in a customer's mind. Time is actually money.

Re: Why Can't Developers Estimate Time?

#10

Post by gulbrandr » Fri, Apr 08, 2011, 1:37 PM UTC

I think no one can estimate time, not just developers.