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How can Wall Street be so healthy when Main Street isn’t?

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Re: How can Wall Street be so healthy when Main Street isn’t?

#91

Post by dragonwriter »

GhostVII wrote: post #90
0xffff2 wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you an immunologist? I'm not, but it's my layman's understanding that most candidates are likely to make it to stage 3, and that most will fail in stage 3. As far as I can tell, the number of candidates in stage 3 trials is not a strong indicator of the likelihood of a successful vaccine being developed.

No but Dr. Fauci, along with other scientists working on the vaccine (ex. Dr. Sarah Gilbert), have repeatedly said we will likely get a vaccine by 2021, and have millions of doses rolling out by mid 2021.

> No but Dr. Fauci, along with other scientists working on the vaccine, have repeatedly said we will likely get a vaccine by 2021.

No, Dr. Fauci has said that if the vaccines currently in testing, which are being rushed to production before trials are complete, pass trials, then it is likely that there will be tens of millions of doses available in Spring 2021 and enough for everyone who wants them by the end of 2021.

But he's also acknowledged, at the same time, that that's an “if” and instead all of that vaccine could end up getting dumped if the trials fail.

Re: How can Wall Street be so healthy when Main Street isn’t?

#92

Post by GhostVII »

dragonwriter wrote: post #91
GhostVII wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No but Dr. Fauci, along with other scientists working on the vaccine (ex. Dr. Sarah Gilbert), have repeatedly said we will likely get a vaccine by 2021, and have millions of doses rolling out by mid 2021.

> No but Dr. Fauci, along with other scientists working on the vaccine, have repeatedly said we will likely get a vaccine by 2021. No, Dr. Fauci has said that if the vaccines currently in testing, which are being rushed to production before trials are complete, pass trials, then it is likely that there will be tens of millions of doses available in Spring 2021 and enough for everyone who wants them by the end of 2021…

Looking ahead, Fauci said he’s “cautiously optimistic that we will have a vaccine by the end of this year and as we go into 2021. I don’t think it’s dreaming … I believe it’s a reality (and) will be shown to be reality.”

https://globalnews.ca/news/7242988/fauci-usa-coronavirus-vac...

Of course nothing is guaranteed, but to me that seems like we can be pretty sure that we will have a vaccine in 2021.

Re: How can Wall Street be so healthy when Main Street isn’t?

#93

Post by justinmeiners »

TheAdamAndChe wrote: post #84
gazelleeatslion wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin. But seriously I do agree — despite it being loved by PF/FIRE crowd — parking all your assets in Index funds with no other competitive option is terrifying.

Bitcoin is 100% speculative. It has no utility. You can't build with it. The fees make using it as fiat prohibitively expensive. I agree that it will likely go up. I'm actually in the process of testing software I made to predict and exploit its movement. But since it's just speculative, it will also eventually go down hard like it did in 2018.

> it has no utility.

You can send money anywhere in the world in any amount for a flat fee. It provides an asset with a fixed supply to prevent against inflation. these provide plenty of utility

What you may mean is that it doesn't generate earnings/cash flow so it's not a productive investment.

Re: How can Wall Street be so healthy when Main Street isn’t?

#94

Post by dragonwriter »

GhostVII wrote: post #92
dragonwriter wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No but Dr. Fauci, along with other scientists working on the vaccine, have repeatedly said we will likely get a vaccine by 2021. No, Dr. Fauci has said that if the vaccines currently in testing, which are being rushed to production before trials are complete, pass trials, then it is likely that there will be tens of millions of doses available in Spring 2021 and enough for everyone who wants them by the end of 2021…

Looking ahead, Fauci said he’s “cautiously optimistic that we will have a vaccine by the end of this year and as we go into 2021. I don’t think it’s dreaming … I believe it’s a reality (and) will be shown to be reality.” https://globalnews.ca/news/7242988/fauci-usa-coronavirus-vac... Of course nothing is guaranteed, but to me that seems like we can be pretty sure that we will have a vaccine in 2021.

Your source leaves out a lot of context; see this article with more context on the same remarks: https://www.businessinsider.com/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-li...

Fauci is cautiously optimistic that a vaccine will exist by the end of the year, be in limited deployment in Spring, and generally fully available in the US by the end of the year to everyone who wants it.

But that's cautious optimism that stuff currently in testing and rushed into production in anticipation of success pans out, and there is a risk that it doesn't and we're back at square one. Nowhere does he even suggest a likely timeline if his cautious optimism about the current crop isn't realized, which he very clearly acknowledges it might not be.

It may seem to you to be “pretty sure” we'll have a vaccine in 2021, but that's certainly not a conclusion supporter by Dr. Fauci’s statement.

Re: How can Wall Street be so healthy when Main Street isn’t?

#95

Post by CalRobert »

giantg2 wrote: post #12
CalRobert wrote: post #5

Where else are you gonna put your money? Stable governments are paying ~0 or negative interest. I'm actually asking, right now I'm just paying off debt but would be curious what people think. If I didn't have the debt I'd probably buy equities (index fund, etc.) like everoyne else.

Commodities could be another option. I think gold and silver aren't great choices right now, but maybe platinum is. Along this same line, real estate has real value to it.

Actually, last year I inadvertently become a real estate investor because I was tired of paying rent and hated debt, so I looked for cheap rundown shacks I could live in (barely) and buy cash.

Ended up in an old cottage well under 100k on 3.5 acres an hour from the city. Which, in retrospect, was basically like hitting the jackpot for pandemic quality of life. Just dumb luck, though.

Re: How can Wall Street be so healthy when Main Street isn’t?

#96

Post by CalRobert »

badwolf wrote: post #40
giantg2 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Commodities could be another option. I think gold and silver aren't great choices right now, but maybe platinum is. Along this same line, real estate has real value to it.

Lumber has been having quite the ride the last several weeks

Well, I _am_ ordering a bunch of 2x6's today to build a shed...

Re: How can Wall Street be so healthy when Main Street isn’t?

#97

Post by giantg2 »

CalRobert wrote: post #95
giantg2 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Commodities could be another option. I think gold and silver aren't great choices right now, but maybe platinum is. Along this same line, real estate has real value to it.

Actually, last year I inadvertently become a real estate investor because I was tired of paying rent and hated debt, so I looked for cheap rundown shacks I could live in (barely) and buy cash. Ended up in an old cottage well under 100k on 3.5 acres an hour from the city. Which, in retrospect, was basically like hitting the jackpot for pandemic quality of life. Just dumb luck, though.

I dream of owning land one day. KY has some cheap stuff. I might be able to afford 50-100 acres there.

Re: How can Wall Street be so healthy when Main Street isn’t?

#98

Post by anemoiac »

treis wrote: post #13

It's really not that complicated. Wall Street doesn't (generally) own businesses on Main Street. Main Street is skewed towards locally owned boutiques, cafes, shops, restaurants and so on. Those are getting killed but it doesn't matter to the S&P 500 because they're not listed there. To some extent it is good for the S&P 500 as the money shifts from those locally owned businesses to the mega corps in the S&P 500. We'…

"Employment" is actually below 62%, if we look at the percentage of the working age population that is employed. [1]

1. https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab...

Re: How can Wall Street be so healthy when Main Street isn’t?

#99

Post by CalRobert »

giantg2 wrote: post #97
CalRobert wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, last year I inadvertently become a real estate investor because I was tired of paying rent and hated debt, so I looked for cheap rundown shacks I could live in (barely) and buy cash. Ended up in an old cottage well under 100k on 3.5 acres an hour from the city. Which, in retrospect, was basically like hitting the jackpot for pandemic quality of life. Just dumb luck, though.

I dream of owning land one day. KY has some cheap stuff. I might be able to afford 50-100 acres there.

Yeah - I think we're going to see a large rebalancing of land values and salaries as remote work becomes more common. The areas that are too far to commute to the city, but close enough for a day trip or the odd visit, are looking really appealing right now.

Although, this is in Europe. A house on 3 acres of land where you could get the train to SF for work in an hour would cost a LOT more than 100k I imagine.

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