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Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

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Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#851

Post by dredmorbius »

marcosdumay wrote: post #517
dredmorbius wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There can be long emergencies. There is also the sense of an ongoing crises , in the sense of a threat in which there is a very real likelihood of either a very bad, or very positive outcome. The Covid situation strongly resembles this. Too there is the situation that even after the immediate onset of some emergency has passed, dealing with consequential effects carries great significance. To call on one of my prefer…

Ongoing crises are not emergencies. If it lasts for long enough, it becomes normal, and must be dealt with by your normal planning. If your planning can't deal with it, it must be adapted, there is no reason to keep creating exceptional actions for something that is there every day. That said, it's perfectly reasonable for a government to keep exceptional procedures for an year. That's the minimum planning granularit…

What are they then? What are appropriate and/or inappropriate responses?

What happens where a long-term crisis endures requiring rapid decisionmaking, faster than legislative deliberative practice allows?

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#852

Post by Rapzid »

mkolodny wrote: post #460
nradov wrote: post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Asymptomatic transmission, while possible, is rare. https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-2671

"Of these 127 [COVID-19 cases], 8 (6.3% [CI, 2.1% to 10.5%]) were asymptomatic. Of the 119 symptomatic cases, 20 (16.8%) were defined as mild, 87 (73.1%) as moderate, and 12 (10.1%) as severe or critical." 6.3% of transmissions being asymptomatic doesn't sound rare to me. Also, the 89.9% of people with mild or moderate cases may still not realize they have covid, and spread it.

It's also worth noting that there is confusion between "asymptomatic" and "pre-symptomatic". In the health industry apparently "asymptomatic" means you never present symptoms, however you can be "pre-symptomatic"(meaning you will present symptoms) and spread the disease as well. The media had been using "asymptomatic" to mean both, but then a study came out saying it was rare and blah blah blah.

Should I be surprised how many people on HN have resorted to conspiracy theories, accusations of malice, and discreditation over changing and mixed information? We live in a world of changing requirements but somehow changing recommendations based on new and changing information is all the evidence we need to indulge ourselves in confirmation bias?

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#853

Post by crunchybackbone »

lobotryas wrote: post #842
johnwalkr wrote: post #543

Wow with these comments. You going to the gym is not saving the economy. Yes, we can't shut everything down but you'd think the article was about shutting down grocery stores or the stock market. And by not doing your part, your whole community could be stunted for 2 years. Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to s…

You’re going to write all that when BLM protest and Portland _riots_ are going on? Hundreds or thousands of people close up together breathing hard with or without masks?? Get outta here, you phony.

protests = outdoors. gyms=indoors.

calling a protest a riot doesn't put it indoors. gyms, shopping, etc are much more dangerous than being outside at a protest.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#854

Post by crunchybackbone »

amiga_500 wrote: post #496
odnorazovyj wrote: post #312

Anyone dedicated enough to be still going to the gym is going to be healthy enough that they will have no problem with the coronavirus. The obese, diabetic etc will take any excuse to skip gym.

Went to the gym 3 times a week, cycled 25k every weekday, ran on the weekends. Now I can only walk, after covid, which I got in early March. I'm hoping to try jogging again at some stage, after CT scans on my lungs, but I think it's a bit of a pipe dream. After 5 months the daily nausea has stopped. No prior conditions. Early 40s. edit: can't think of another site on the internet you'd get downvoted for the above, HN…

re: the downvotes: Honestly I believe that HN is being brigaded by libertarians and /thedonald types. It's become really vehemently political and awful lately. Something's going on. Every comment that mentions this is removed, so there's that. The mods don't seem to care, or have an agenda from Thiel.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#855

Post by dredmorbius »

Khaine wrote: post #735
WD-42 wrote: post #710

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s still whole numbers for anyone over 60, and significant numbers still for anyone below it. Have you ever seriously contemplated death? If you have, those numbers don’t seem very good, not at all. Not to mention these are stats for DEATH. Meaning these are the worst case scenario. Dead. The chances of getting seriously ill, like major suffering, are much higher. Would you want to experience that? Would you wish…

Sure, but how many of those people would have died from the normal flu? I know this is a morbid topic, but it gets to a fundamental truth. How valuable is a human life? Is it worth significantly damaging the future of the young through economic depression and increased social isolation and mental illness to extend the life old old people by a year, 5 years? There is no easy solution. We can hibernate as much of the n…

US total excess mortality for 2020 is at or above a quarter million, year to date.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/12/us/covid-deat...

How many more quarter millions of souls is a sufficient amount to sacrifice on behalf of gym fetishists?

(I was planning a return to the gym following an involuntary multi-year lapse this past January. On advising my doctor I was delaying plans, their first response was to dismiss my concerns as germophobic. They've since apologised.)

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#856

Post by crunchybackbone »

crunchybackbone wrote: post #854
amiga_500 wrote: post #496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Went to the gym 3 times a week, cycled 25k every weekday, ran on the weekends. Now I can only walk, after covid, which I got in early March. I'm hoping to try jogging again at some stage, after CT scans on my lungs, but I think it's a bit of a pipe dream. After 5 months the daily nausea has stopped. No prior conditions. Early 40s. edit: can't think of another site on the internet you'd get downvoted for the above, HN…

re: the downvotes: Honestly I believe that HN is being brigaded by libertarians and /thedonald types. It's become really vehemently political and awful lately. Something's going on. Every comment that mentions this is removed, so there's that. The mods don't seem to care, or have an agenda from Thiel.

i mean, it's ridiculous that an article on gyms is on the front page of a hacker news site. it's so far from the original vision. it used to be you'd come to HN to hear about the latest tech news and discuss software, startups and gadgets. now it's just bloviated non-tech related articles like this that just stoke up comment flame wars. what a fall from grace.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#857

Post by themeiguoren »

johnwalkr wrote: post #543

Wow with these comments. You going to the gym is not saving the economy. Yes, we can't shut everything down but you'd think the article was about shutting down grocery stores or the stock market. And by not doing your part, your whole community could be stunted for 2 years. Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to s…

So what about those young healthy people that interact with no one who’s at risk? I’m in my mid 20’s, and the best upper bound I’ve seen on risk of death for someone my age who is otherwise healthy is 0.05%. Not nothing, but comparable to 2 years of driving and well within the level of risk we give people agency to make decisions about every day. I’ve been through lockdown and I know what that huge hit to quality of life means to me, and the risk of covid is worth it to not have to live that way again.

My fear is solely that I pass it to someone at higher risk, and to that end I’m working from home, masking up, and there isn’t a single person in my life over the age of 40. But I’m also not holding back on seeing friends my age, and yes even throwing parties. We’re all in the same boat, and if they’re also out and about then they’ve made the decision that they’re comfortable with that level of risk themselves. I don’t think it’s a crazy one, and so I’m not going to make it for them.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#858

Post by artursapek »

lazide wrote: post #358
andrelayer wrote: post #332

I think a lot of people in this discussion are pitting the argument at people prioritizing their individual choices over the collective health of the community. I think that is a very singular framing from one side. A lot of people I know just believe that the virus itself is not as deadly as the reaction warrants. The infectious mortality rate of Covid is at best twice that of the normal flu, which isn't nothing and…

Best data I've seen is 6x (.63% IFR). And due to lack of existing immunity from the Flu which keeps the flu at less than 10% of the population/yr, we're looking at a dramatic death toll. That people don't want to believe it, without evidence to the contrary, just makes them solidly into the wishful thinking category - and likely spreaders that will inevitably get someone killed.

How do you think we're going to get immunity like we have with the flu, if everyone is hiding in their basement?

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#859

Post by whiddershins »

NationalPark wrote: post #251
dx87 wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Now we have a lot of governors issuing decrees based on emergency authorities that they’ve been using for six months. This is quite simply a conflict with our basic notion of democracy. We do not have rulers, yet our governors are issuing rules purportedly carrying the weight of law with no oversight from legislature. That was my biggest issue with the whole situation in the USA. All of these emergency measures wer…

Is that actually true? My state has well defined phases of reopening based on infection rates, and I searched for a handful of random states across the political spectrum and found similar plans in place. I don't really buy the power grab angle here. Most of the flack the federal government got was for explicitly _not_ doing any country-wide coordination or restriction. "Leave it to the governors". And it's hard not…

As far as NYC, all the milestones were met long ago but we still can’t do most indoor things.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#860

Post by konjin »

readingnews wrote: post #211

There is a crossfit gym that I pass by every morning on the way to work. It is full, and never stopped during this pandemic. Even at 7AM, it is full of patrons. I would call the "proper authorities", but since there is a State Police car parked outside every morning, and he is in there working out, just like before the pandemic, I doubt calling anyone would do anything. Adding to the post, I read it earlier... it is…

> I find it amazing we can not see short term sacrifice for long term gain.

The virus kills old people. Yes, it is very sentimental to let your grandmother die. But the savings in long term care alone will more than pay for any emotional distress you have in the short term.

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