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Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

businessinsider.com

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Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#251

Post by balfirevic »

koonsolo wrote: post #245
balfirevic wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Show me the calculation of where the government will get the money for paying their entire adult population this amount. The plan is obviously not that everyone gets UBI-amount more money per month than they do now.

You are talking about the net result. But in the end, the government is going to pay everyone this amount. So let's say government taxes income at a higher percentage, so that the middle class basically gets the same net amount. How high will you need to tax those middle class jobs?

If the middle class basically gets the same net amount, they would need to have their taxes increased by the same amount as UBI. That just follows from the premise of your question.

What is that in terms of tax rate? I don't know, Dane-pgp seems to have already answered with a concrete proposal.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#252

Post by srveale »

b112 wrote: post #92
mmhsieh wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"What UBI skeptical people want to know is where is the proof that we can afford to tax ourselves to pay ourselves, where is the proof that it won't hurt long term productivity, and where is the proof that it doesn't cause inflation. A 120 person 36 month trial program cannot answer any of these questions." Yes, but some skeptics really do object to UBI on moral-based reasons - indolence, buying drugs, laziness, and…

I wish could get an overall rational argument FOR UBI, so I could at least debate it. From what I see, it's madness. The economics make zero sense. For example ; Canada. The Federal Government. (All of this speaks of the Federal Government). https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/services/publica... 2019 Federal Revenue? $312B. That's from taxes, income from oil, any and all Federal revenue. Now. UBI. Universal…

This version of UBI (granted, without the U), would cost $43B [0]. I'm guessing what would actually be implemented would cost more, but $720B is certainly too high.

Your post doesn't mention:

- Savings from scrapping other welfare programs

- Decreased healthcare and law enforcement costs and other economic benefits of bringing millions of people out of poverty

- Massive stimulus leading to increased government revenue

I'm not saying it would be cheap, but your post only includes the costs and not the benefits.

[0] https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/what-would-a-guarant...

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#253

Post by jliptzin »

missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

They should do a lottery system. Instead of giving $300 million to one person, give 1,000 people $1,000 / mo for life and see what happens.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#254

Post by RockIslandLine »

b112 wrote: post #92
mmhsieh wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"What UBI skeptical people want to know is where is the proof that we can afford to tax ourselves to pay ourselves, where is the proof that it won't hurt long term productivity, and where is the proof that it doesn't cause inflation. A 120 person 36 month trial program cannot answer any of these questions." Yes, but some skeptics really do object to UBI on moral-based reasons - indolence, buying drugs, laziness, and…

I wish could get an overall rational argument FOR UBI, so I could at least debate it. From what I see, it's madness. The economics make zero sense. For example ; Canada. The Federal Government. (All of this speaks of the Federal Government). https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/services/publica... 2019 Federal Revenue? $312B. That's from taxes, income from oil, any and all Federal revenue. Now. UBI. Universal…

"Right now, 8% of Federal Revenue pays just the interest on that debt. If interest rates go up, say in a year or two.. so goes up that payment."

Canada has a fiat currency. Thus the Canadian government can set the interest rate on federal debt to zero.

http://multiplier-effect.org/modern-money-theory-how-i-came-...

Permanent ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) is probably a better policy since it reduces the compounding of debt and the tendency for the rentier class to take over more of the economy

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#255

Post by pmontra »

Some goods are virtually in infinite supply in Western World societies. Basic food, cloths, healthcare (most of Europe AFAIK, not the USA, by choice), even cars and housing. It could make sense to give them for free or give the amount of money that buys them.

However if one wants that kind of food which very few farmers produce and very few chefs cook, or that car that is made in 100 units, or that house on that hill (1 unit) then it's inevitable that you must pay a lot. This means you have to find a way to get a lot of money. UBI won't buy special things and special lifes. It's work as we know it that does.

So, I don't see problems with UBI. If you want to be Musk or Bezos you will (very few persons anyway), if you care only about drinking beer you will (a lot of people) and work to gain some extra for the occasional special thing.

The problem is where all that money comes from. Countries are printing money now and nobody cares anymore. Is it possible to keep doing that for 100 years if everybody agrees?

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#256

Post by Taek »

dorgo wrote: post #218
brazzy wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always saw the "also giving it to the rich" as much more about avoiding the bureaucratic overhead, social stigma and other associated downsides of trying to ensure that only the poor get it.

And the rich are so few that you wouldn't save much by exlucding them.

That's the thing. Not very expensive to also give money to the rich, and also there are extenuating circumstances. I know multiple people who had no jobs and no savings yet didn't qualify for covid checks from the US because they had high paying jobs in 2018.

If you just pay everyone, wealth still disproportionately moves towards the poor.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#257

Post by koonsolo »

dane-pgp wrote: post #196
koonsolo wrote: post #178

Last time I asked this question here, I got downvoted without any answers. So here is my second try, this time specifically for Germany: Show me the calculation of where the government will get the money for paying their entire adult population this amount. And let's assume everyone will keep working at their current job. (Which they won't since at a "Basic Income" pricepoint, lots of people would prefer spending mor…

Here's a proposal for how it could be gradually implemented in the UK by simplifying the tax code: https://atlaspragmatica.com/arguments-for-a-ubi-conclusion/ It seems to roughly involve the top 22% of earners having a tax bill that is up to 10% bigger than currently, while everyone in the bottom 78% of earners is unaffected or a net beneficiary.

Let me get this straight, the starting point is taxed like this, assuming the average wage in UK which seems to be 35k for a full-time job (https://www.findcourses.co.uk/inspiration/articles/average-s...)

35k makes net 12k (not taxed) + 18.4k (at 20% tax rate) = 30.4k net

In the conclusion, everyone gets a "UBI" of 666 per month, which basically doesn't even cover rent (https://www.statista.com/statistics/752203/average-cost-of-r...). If they would follow this German test, it would need to rise to 1100 pounds per month.

So in this scenario, that average full-time employee pays 48% flat tax on income:

35k taxed at 48% = 18.2k net, plus the 8k UBI leaves this average full-time employee at 26.2k. That is 4.2K less than before.

Looking at that graph at the end, I think there is some "creative graph-plotting" going on, unless I'm seriously mistaken in my calculation.

So how can this be the ideal calculation? The graph and conclusion seems to be in complete error. And even then, 8k per year barely seems like a 'basic income'.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#258

Post by RockIslandLine »

tfehring wrote: post #77
OneGuy123 wrote: post #4

Based on how most jobs will get automated some form of an UBI will be required sooner or later. Now the only question is: how to you phase in UBI while still rewarding extra productive people to keep creating/innovating? Some will say "those people will innovate out of love". This is not always the case, many people are good at what they do and create many awesome things but given the chance they would rather do some…

UBI isn't socialism. The incentive for productivity under UBI is called capitalism, and it means that the people who want to live more than slightly above the poverty level will continue to work, and the people who want to get rich will continue to innovate and start companies. There are plausible (though obviously untested) arguments that UBI will increase innovation by getting people out of bullshit jobs and enabli…

"will increase innovation by getting people out of bullshit jobs and enabling entrepreneurs to pay their bills until their companies are profitable."

I think that relies on a definition of "innovation" that is not proper.

What does "innovation" mean?

We already have restaurants. If you open another restaurant have you done anything innovative at all? Most likely not.

You're not going to develop the next generation of microchip in your basement. Multibillion dollar industrial plants are beyond the means of an individual who depends on UBI.

So what kind of new development are you likely to actually create?

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#259

Post by aeternum »

mrow84 wrote: post #179
aeternum wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right, it's not very clear, this is what I was going for: It's not very fair to society as a whole if we implement policies which impede standard of living increases.

Again, something I could probably agree to, but it is interesting that we seem to have to move the frame from the individual up to (the individual's share of) society in order to provide a meaningful answer. Despite others' somewhat antagonistic answers I really just wanted to explore the reasoning behind the original statement, which I think many people instinctively agree with whilst not being able to convincingly…

Society is a critical part of the answer because without it, there is no "amount" of anything.

Effort has a clear opportunity cost which is why I think a lot of people instinctively agree that individuals should be rewarded based on the amount they contribute to the societal pot.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#260

Post by kevinskii »

sdenton4 wrote: post #182
skybrian wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any UBI could be entirely reversed by an equal and opposite tax. Of course this would be pointless, but it shows that there are many possibilities, depending on what sort of taxes you combine it with, and some of them are certainly feasible because the net effect is small. UBI is largely about symbolic equality, the kindergarten-level fairness of everyone getting the same amount. That’s important because symbols of e…

It's not about fairness at all: it's about poverty traps, and getting people out of them. With the learned understanding that if you give things to the poor, you also have to give them to the rich, because the rich are unable to look at any pie they can't have a slice of without wanting to destroy it.

Any UBI system that is funded through a free market economy will necessarily have the rich paying far more in taxes than they receive in basic income in return.
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