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Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

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Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#681

Post by FourthProtocol »

randomchars wrote: post #606
johnwalkr wrote: post #543

Wow with these comments. You going to the gym is not saving the economy. Yes, we can't shut everything down but you'd think the article was about shutting down grocery stores or the stock market. And by not doing your part, your whole community could be stunted for 2 years. Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to s…

The question I've never found a reasonably answer for is this: Whats the exit strategy? What has to happen for this to end? For what I've read there's a good chance this virus will stay with us for the long term, just like the flu. Waiting for the vaccine is kind of like hoping for a miracle, as it might not even work. So when will all this madness end?

Right now there is no exist strategy. There are possibilities though.

Assuming a vaccine doesn't appear, then we're left with herd immunity through community infection. There are problems with that though, because it's not yet clear whether infection with the COVID-19 virus even makes a person immune to future infection.

Amidst all the uncertianty a vaccine is our best hope. Personally I'm assuming this will be with us in some shape or form for many years.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#682

Post by thelastname »

gvjddbnvdrbv wrote: post #640
arxv33 wrote: post #623

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I travelled all over Europe past two months and I must say Europe is quite laxed. And there cases haven’t really gone up. Pretty much every outdoor cafes in Europe were open with a few exceptions and I didn’t see much difference other than people wearing masks and social distancing between tables. I think in US everything is polarized and politicized. To the point that wearing masks is somehow considered against free…

Most places in Europe locked down early and harder than the US. We got damn close to elimination in many areas. This meant that many countries have been able to broadly reopen their economies. Sadly not every country played ball and it is spreading again.

> We got damn close to elimination in many areas.

Where?

Poland took some early actions but there are no covid free areas. Infections rates have plateaued but remain on a more or less constant levels. And people are getting upset. It will be really hard to keep them homes during the second wave... Same seems to be true for Czech Ostrava region.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#683

Post by rocha »

helaoban wrote: post #636
johnwalkr wrote: post #543

Wow with these comments. You going to the gym is not saving the economy. Yes, we can't shut everything down but you'd think the article was about shutting down grocery stores or the stock market. And by not doing your part, your whole community could be stunted for 2 years. Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to s…

Spoken like somebody with no skin in the game. Go preach this nonsense to small business owners that have had their livelihoods taken from them and see how long you can keep your head above the parapet. > Support temporary benefits to your fellow citizens. What benefits? Support how? Prayers? Support that small business in your community with your wallet. > Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance…

> Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death.

>> Where's the data to back up any close to an assertion like this?

Latest IFR estimates are between 0.5% and 1.0% (1 in 200 to 1 in 100).

https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/estimating...

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#684

Post by rootusrootus »

bluntfang wrote: post #583
rootusrootus wrote: post #509

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even at 6x, it still very much comes up for debate. Most reasonable people can agree that a .01% IFR is not worth shutting everything down for, and that a 50% IFR is definitely worth shutting everything down for. Where you fall on this spectrum determines whether someone will call you a wishful thinker or not. Everyone believes their own opinion is the best.

>Most reasonable people can agree Is this just a way of saying that people who don't agree with you aren't reasonable? What do we do with those people's opinions if they are the majority?

No, it is setting a wide range and excluding the extremes -- that is, people who aren't even within spitting distance of a good faith debate. 0.01% IFR would be 1/10th of the seasonal flu. And 50% would be up there with bubonic plague. I feel pretty comfortable with my definition of 'reasonable people.'

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#685

Post by polote »

svnpenn wrote: post #654
arxv33 wrote: post #623

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I travelled all over Europe past two months and I must say Europe is quite laxed. And there cases haven’t really gone up. Pretty much every outdoor cafes in Europe were open with a few exceptions and I didn’t see much difference other than people wearing masks and social distancing between tables. I think in US everything is polarized and politicized. To the point that wearing masks is somehow considered against free…

Europe has twice the population of the United States. Yet despite this, United States has 4 TIMES the cases per day. Europe can relax because they worked hard in the beginning to get everything under control. The US never did that, most states (like my home state of Texas) did a half-assed closing for 3 weeks, so the numbers never really got under control.

> Yet despite this, United States has 4 TIMES the cases per day.

You can't compare cases

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#686

Post by volkk »

thewarrior wrote: post #575
volkk wrote: post #574

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is unnecessary fear mongering without any actual statistics/studies linked. i've seen those studies linked, and they're definitely concerning, but using words like "many" without any backing is just harmful and just creates more paranoia/panic. highly recommend /r/COVID19 (stay away from /r/coronavirus) for well moderated discussions that aren't politicized/sensationalist and are based on research/science/number…

Yes because we don’t know yet. Doesn’t mean it’s fearmongering. SARS patients had side effects for 5-10 years.

SARS has had 15+ years to be studied at this point. COVID has been around for half a year. Nobody knows anything so talking about it one way or another is dangerous. Too optimistic and you have people thinking its no big deal, and if youre too end of the world about it, then you've got everybody cowering in fear and anxiety about something that has an extremely low chance of happening to them.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#687

Post by u801e »

csomar wrote: post #664
svnpenn wrote: post #654

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe has twice the population of the United States. Yet despite this, United States has 4 TIMES the cases per day. Europe can relax because they worked hard in the beginning to get everything under control. The US never did that, most states (like my home state of Texas) did a half-assed closing for 3 weeks, so the numbers never really got under control.

The US is doing way more testing than most of the populous countries in the EU.

What's the percentage of positive test results out of all test results in the US vs most of the populous countries in Europe?

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#688

Post by yryan »

djsumdog wrote: post #662
arxv33 wrote: post #623

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I travelled all over Europe past two months and I must say Europe is quite laxed. And there cases haven’t really gone up. Pretty much every outdoor cafes in Europe were open with a few exceptions and I didn’t see much difference other than people wearing masks and social distancing between tables. I think in US everything is polarized and politicized. To the point that wearing masks is somehow considered against free…

> They still have not come clean for their initial mask guidelines that was blatantly wrong I don't think they were. There is a 2013 study that shows cloth masks would be ineffective at preventing spread of respiratory illnesses, and posts by UIC Health early on that said they weren't necessary (which they've added a notice to). I wrote about this here: https://battlepenguin.com/politics/secondary-effects/#masks-...…

In your writing, you say: "A study publish in 2013 by the journal of Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness found that cloth masks wouldn’t be effective during an outbreak of a respiratory infection"

However, the study you referenced states the opposite: "Both masks significantly reduced the number of microorganisms expelled by volunteers, although the surgical mask was 3 times more effective in blocking transmission than the homemade mask." AND "Conclusion: Our findings suggest that a homemade mask should only be considered as a last resort to prevent droplet transmission from infected individuals, but it would be better than no protection."

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#689

Post by polote »

vondur wrote: post #678
svnpenn wrote: post #654

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe has twice the population of the United States. Yet despite this, United States has 4 TIMES the cases per day. Europe can relax because they worked hard in the beginning to get everything under control. The US never did that, most states (like my home state of Texas) did a half-assed closing for 3 weeks, so the numbers never really got under control.

I've been reading how the cases in France are rising enough where the government is considering a second lockdown.

Not yet, for now they have just made the mask mandotary almost everywhere. People will not accept a second lockdown

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#690

Post by polote »

jason0597 wrote: post #645
polote wrote: post #618

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry, but I'm not willing to sacrifice a lot of my freedom to prevent unhealthy or old people to die. You could tell me that I'm wrong, but as far as I know, I'm the only one able to know how I want to live my life

What do you have a problem with, mask wearing or social distancing? Or the lockdown?

Closing the gyms has always been the worst thing to me. Do anything you want but don't close the gym
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