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The dual PhD problem of today’s startups

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31–40 of 126 posts

Re: The dual PhD problem of today’s startups

#31
The author's point is valid - innovation requires more knowledge as the tech that required less knowledge gets built. Today we face the "dual phd" problem, tomorrow the tri.

Obviously that is not sustainable. If society is to continually innovate, you need to stop building innovative systems and start growing them. One approach to this is true AI; not improving your NLP algorithm by 10% with 3x the math complexity IE the transformer model (quote taken from Michael Stonebrake, although he was referencing database research), but by building math that can grow math.

Hell even math is becoming a road block (try integrating THAT Bayes!). The point is as long as we must learn to build, we will run into a wall as humans have finite lifespans and don't scale horizontally (nor do they want to). If we build something that we can feed or point to un-wrangled, raw information into such that it can learn on our behalf, we might have a shot.

Now BACK to pumping out small improvement papers, innovators!

Re: The dual PhD problem of today’s startups

#32
The article misses the point, I think.

The reason why (most, not all!) VCs are successful is not because they have some secret visionary insights into the future of technology but rather because they have the means of diversifying their investments in things that are more or less guaranteed to happen. Will work be more decentralized in 10 years than it is today? Yes. Will financial institutions move away from the archaic infrastructure it's on today over the next decade or two? Yes. Will education move online and become more personalized in the next 10 years? Yes. So, just invest in 20 remote work SaaS companies, 20 fintech products, and 20 online education startups and you'll have a fair shot at making some money. In other words, most VCs are really just private equity versions of index funds.

Because of this, most VCs lack the experience, understanding, and interest in investing in highly experimental projects (there are exceptions of course!)

As an example, I would be very surprised if any of the major VCs today would have invested in a small set of people who wanted to work on what would eventually become the transistor or TCP/IP. There's a reason why these things tend to start in huge corporate research labs (bell labs) or universities: they're not obvious and they're not obviously profitable.

So, the real reason why these companies are not being built is not that the people aren't there willing to build them, it's because nobody's willing to listen. They're just a bunch of crackpots with crazy sounding ideas... until they're not.

Re: The dual PhD problem of today’s startups

#33
post #25

The reason you don't see more startups in the hard sciences is not due to the lack of hybrid talent as this article surmises. It's because: 1 - VCs are reluctant to fund capital intensive startups that have time horizons for exits that are significantly longer than software based startups. 2 - The product lifecycle is so much longer, which makes it inherently much riskier. In many cases it can be years before you eve…

Considering that only a small number of VCs make any money at all (power law strikes again), it doesn't surprise me that the rest of them are some combination of reluctant and inept when it comes to investing and seeing the long term game of some of these prospective hard science initiatives.

The ones that do succeed end up spending what money they made to keep the deck stacked their way and crush opposition. It's not so much that there's no barriers to entry. They exist, it's all the competitors that have VC money ready to burn to keep you out of the game.

Example: EV wouldn't have really taken off without Tesla battering the living shit out of it. Now the other manufacturers are starting to play catch up after suppressing it for decades. It's not like we miraculously discovered the technology for EV drivetrains a decade ago. It's been there all along, and every single one of those fuckers has been stomping on any and every initiative with a warchest of money to make sure it doesn't happen.

Looking back after all these years, "invest in people not in products" seems like nothing more than glorified lip service.

I want to agree with the article but I have no skin in the game. The only VC tier stuff I was involved it was F&F angel investing and it has worked out quite well, but the scale of money and time needed for "hard sciences" is beyond my level of expertise, and, I imagine, beyond the expertise of most VCs out there.

In short, I suspect most VCs do not know what they are doing when it comes to investing, given the paltry ROIs for most of them. So the article is really restating that in a different sort of way.

Re: The dual PhD problem of today’s startups

#35
post #30
post #6

> AI and bio > two very [...] disparate fields They are not, really. The field of bioinformatics exists for almost 20 years, as in, you can degree in it - I almost did myself. And the "informatics" part that you get educated about is pretty much data science, that, by now, uses a lot of ML methods and just like ML requires a very serious math foundation.

That's not a lot of bioinformatics programs that I'm seeing. A lot of bachelors programs seem to focus on teaching almost exclusively the basics of BLAST and all it's boring related algorithms (basically everything in this Coursera course[0]) and their mathematical foundations. Master's programs sometimes are a bit better with a hint of ML, but ultimately most people I've encountered there are still awfully unequippe…

Any bioinformatics program covers machine learning these days. They might not have an explicit class called 'machine learning,' but you can bet it will be covered in the lecture sequence and the cutting edge of the field will be discussed in journal clubs, rather than in lectures which are about established fundamentals.

For a pure biology undergrad who is probably med school bound, learning ML is superfluous so you don't see it in the curriculum at the undergrad level, unless there are specific concentrations offered for computational biology. A bioinformatics program may even just have you take these ML classes from the statistics or CSE department rather than offer some bioinformatics-specific section within their department.

Re: The dual PhD problem of today’s startups

#36
post #25

The reason you don't see more startups in the hard sciences is not due to the lack of hybrid talent as this article surmises. It's because: 1 - VCs are reluctant to fund capital intensive startups that have time horizons for exits that are significantly longer than software based startups. 2 - The product lifecycle is so much longer, which makes it inherently much riskier. In many cases it can be years before you eve…

It's 1.

But also, who can blame them. I've seen really stupid companies come out of biotech incubators, including one that was peddling a genetically modified probiotic whose concoction as designed is known to be ineffective pharmacologically (and an equivalent reformulation strategy is not known in their host species), and a company that demoed reconstituted mock vegan meringues that had residual trifluoroacetic acid in their demo day samples. Vcs just don't know how to judge this shit, and it's much harder to pattern match details that require subtle knowledge than "Uber for X"

Re: The dual PhD problem of today’s startups

#37
post #25

The reason you don't see more startups in the hard sciences is not due to the lack of hybrid talent as this article surmises. It's because: 1 - VCs are reluctant to fund capital intensive startups that have time horizons for exits that are significantly longer than software based startups. 2 - The product lifecycle is so much longer, which makes it inherently much riskier. In many cases it can be years before you eve…

Biotech startups are also subject to the fickle nature of living organisms.

When I was in grad school I knew a bunch of grad students who worked on biotech/bioengineering experiments. They would have to take care of their experiments like they were pets, nurturing them and making sure they were well taken care of, because if they died on you, that's months of effort down the drain. Vacations had to be carefully planned, and people had to be delegated to keep those little critters alive.

Whereas folks running experiments with non-living things could actually work 9-6 and take vacations. Computational folks could run their experiments while sitting on a beach in Hawaii (with an LTE signal of course).

Bio is just a different beast.

The worse thing is? Many of these biotech graduates actually struggle to find well-paying jobs after, despite how hot the field seemingly is.

Re: The dual PhD problem of today’s startups

#38
Another question that's worth pondering is that perhaps the previous generation of technologies was simply easier to develop than the current generation - I believe the economist Tyler Cowen proposes this theory in his book "The Great Stagnation". For example, it may be that silicon processors are just intrinsically easier to develop than quantum computers, traditional nuclear (fission) reactors are easier to develop than fusion reactors, better fertilizer is easier to develop compared to GMO crops, etc. Perhaps, as Cowen claims, we have already plucked all the low-lying technological fruit, so to speak.

Re: The dual PhD problem of today’s startups

#39
post #7

This assumes that ML and AI research will continue to be silo'd outside of domain specific research. But it's not the case in academia and also increasingly in industry. You have computational neuroscience, bioinformatics, and many other traditional disciplines which have not only incorporated ML/AI methods but also pushed the fundamental methods research forward. We're increasingly seeing interdisciplinary methods a…

As a computational biologist I have gained sufficient expertise in both computation and biology to know that most of the magic AI biomed stuff proposed by people who have expertise in only one of these areas is utter nonsense. Two PhDs that don't speak the same language isn't a great solution, but one PhD who is a jack-of-both-trades isn't the only alternative either. I feel like I've done well with alternating colla…

Maybe you need 3 PhDs for 2 fields: one to go deep in each field, and one 'jack-of-both-trades' to mediate and translate between them.

Re: The dual PhD problem of today’s startups

#40
post #25

The reason you don't see more startups in the hard sciences is not due to the lack of hybrid talent as this article surmises. It's because: 1 - VCs are reluctant to fund capital intensive startups that have time horizons for exits that are significantly longer than software based startups. 2 - The product lifecycle is so much longer, which makes it inherently much riskier. In many cases it can be years before you eve…

SBIR funding is critical for hard science ventures early on. It's also a good indicator to future investors of potential hard science projects that a panel of experts in the area has reviewed and approved government funding for the idea, and the team is at least decently competent to meet the milestones of the SBIR. This helped Ginkgo Bioworks before they received more than half a billion in private investment.
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