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Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

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Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#671

Post by black6 »

obmelvin wrote: post #670
djsumdog wrote: post #662

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They still have not come clean for their initial mask guidelines that was blatantly wrong I don't think they were. There is a 2013 study that shows cloth masks would be ineffective at preventing spread of respiratory illnesses, and posts by UIC Health early on that said they weren't necessary (which they've added a notice to). I wrote about this here: https://battlepenguin.com/politics/secondary-effects/#masks-...…

>Am I the only one who sees the normalization of the mask as contributing to those who are rioting? Please, just no.

It’s similar to the anonymity offered online. People’s worst characteristics come out when their faces are hidden.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#672

Post by ryandrake »

at-fates-hands wrote: post #300
ceejayoz wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We are now on month 7 of being told to not socialize... "Keep your distance, wear a mask, and stick to small groups" is not the same as "do not socialize".

Considering most states have been in full on shelter in place lock down mode, there aren't many places people can socialize anyways. All of the normal places where you see people socialize have bee closed or went out business. Restaurants, bars, night clubs, sporting events, live music (festivals and stadiums) and many, many others. It would be one thing to conform to what your saying, but its become hard if not impo…

No state in the USA is or has ever been "in full on shelter in place lock down mode" during the pandemic. Many states issued half-assed stay at home orders, which in practice ended up being voluntary and unenforced. Throughout it all, there were people who were out horsing around, doing whatever they wanted, and not facing legal consequences. Vanishingly few people were arrested for violating stay-at-home, despite it being legally enforceable as a misdemeanor. Thankfully most people did their part, but to call it "lock down" is a bit of an exaggeration.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#673

Post by Rapzid »

djsumdog wrote: post #662
arxv33 wrote: post #623

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I travelled all over Europe past two months and I must say Europe is quite laxed. And there cases haven’t really gone up. Pretty much every outdoor cafes in Europe were open with a few exceptions and I didn’t see much difference other than people wearing masks and social distancing between tables. I think in US everything is polarized and politicized. To the point that wearing masks is somehow considered against free…

> They still have not come clean for their initial mask guidelines that was blatantly wrong I don't think they were. There is a 2013 study that shows cloth masks would be ineffective at preventing spread of respiratory illnesses, and posts by UIC Health early on that said they weren't necessary (which they've added a notice to). I wrote about this here: https://battlepenguin.com/politics/secondary-effects/#masks-...…

Two points.

Everybody is a liar.

You don't have to take Fauci's word for it so whether he is or isn't lying, you do or don't trust him, is not a good argument for or against masks.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#674

Post by thelastname »

svnpenn wrote: post #654
arxv33 wrote: post #623

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I travelled all over Europe past two months and I must say Europe is quite laxed. And there cases haven’t really gone up. Pretty much every outdoor cafes in Europe were open with a few exceptions and I didn’t see much difference other than people wearing masks and social distancing between tables. I think in US everything is polarized and politicized. To the point that wearing masks is somehow considered against free…

Europe has twice the population of the United States. Yet despite this, United States has 4 TIMES the cases per day. Europe can relax because they worked hard in the beginning to get everything under control. The US never did that, most states (like my home state of Texas) did a half-assed closing for 3 weeks, so the numbers never really got under control.

I don't know but perhaps recent social unrest could have something to do with that?

Europe is getting tired right now, and I'm not talking about economies but about people. You can't lock people for months and expect them to to obey indefinitely. It's unsustainable. It's more reasonable to apply some proportional restrictions than to lock everything down. Eg. limit users of a gym and require disinfection. That's how a legal state should work: effective and proportional restrictions, rest is a human right.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#675

Post by Ensorceled »

mehrdadn wrote: post #633
Ensorceled wrote: post #626

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> though if you're disputing the specific numbers, you're missing my point I'll bite ... what is your point? Approximately 30000 people die a year in car accidents a year in the US, COVID has killed 170K in six months. What's the missing piece you are trying to bring to the table?

The probability of dying given you have the disease (/car crash) is not what you need to look at. You need to include the chances of actually getting the disease (/being in a car crash) in the first place, is my point.

Ok. Almost 6 million US car accidents a year, just over 5 million US COVID cases, so car accidents are about 1/5 as lethal as COVID on a per capita basis. Currently the US yearly car crash chance is about the same as a COVID infection. Car crashes are fairly constant, COVID cases are still increasing this year.

I do wonder how the critical injury vs. lasting COVID complications will workout.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#676

Post by arkh »

nradov wrote: post #631
Raidion wrote: post #585

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you answered your own question: "As long as the curve has been flattened sufficiently and the healthcare system isn't overwhelmed" The difference between "overwhelmed" and "not overwhelmed" is pretty subtle. You can measure this in ICU beds and hospital capacity, but that's not sustainable. You have to start asking "How many hours are health care workers working?". You also have to ask, if we did have any set…

The healthcare system isn't running at the red line. Almost all hospitals have adequate capacity. Most healthcare providers are still working shorter than normal hours. So your concerns are unfounded.

And let's not forget all the people who decided to postpone care during COVID: most of them will have worsened conditions once they get to some hospital. The fearmongering may add a lot of avoidable deaths: cardiac problems not taking seriously, cancer found too late etc.

In April doctors were pondering why there was 40% to 60% heart attack patients. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/well/live/coronavirus-doc...

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#677

Post by obmelvin »

polote wrote: post #618
michaelmrose wrote: post #579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If people like you wont wear a mask or social distance and the portion that are asymptomatic pass it around you will help it spread far and wide maximizing the chances that even careful people will become ill eventually. Wearing a mask is mostly about keeping the respiratory droplets of the ill, including the 40-50% which don't have obvious symptoms from spreading around. If only the vulnerable wear masks they wont b…

I'm sorry, but I'm not willing to sacrifice a lot of my freedom to prevent unhealthy or old people to die. You could tell me that I'm wrong, but as far as I know, I'm the only one able to know how I want to live my life

That's the thing though...You don't need to lock yourself inside, just wear a damn mask when you go do your stuff. For example, I wear a mask to go run on the boardwalk because I like running there. It honestly takes 0 effort to wear the mask and I get to do what I want.

Sure, you can be selfish, but you're also negatively impacting society and saying that you don't care. You do you, but I don't get it.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#678

Post by vondur »

svnpenn wrote: post #654
arxv33 wrote: post #623

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I travelled all over Europe past two months and I must say Europe is quite laxed. And there cases haven’t really gone up. Pretty much every outdoor cafes in Europe were open with a few exceptions and I didn’t see much difference other than people wearing masks and social distancing between tables. I think in US everything is polarized and politicized. To the point that wearing masks is somehow considered against free…

Europe has twice the population of the United States. Yet despite this, United States has 4 TIMES the cases per day. Europe can relax because they worked hard in the beginning to get everything under control. The US never did that, most states (like my home state of Texas) did a half-assed closing for 3 weeks, so the numbers never really got under control.

I've been reading how the cases in France are rising enough where the government is considering a second lockdown.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#679

Post by mehrdadn »

gvjddbnvdrbv wrote: post #656
jdavis703 wrote: post #616

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is comparing the lifetime chance of various causes of death against the chance of death by COVID-19 complications after getting infected. In fact, the original report says it's too soon to know what the actual risk of COVID-19 related death is.

To be fair if we don't control this thing you have a near 100% chance if catching covid at some point in the next few months. Assuming we have an effective vaccine in 6 months you would then have a near 0% chance of catching covid again. This works out to the lifetime chance of death being the IFR. So between 1/1000 to 1/100 (depending on which study for IFR you look at). If we don't develop an effective vaccine then…

> To be fair if we don't control this thing you have a near 100% chance if catching covid at some point in the next few months.

By "near 100% chance" here do you mean the fraction of the population getting the disease, or the likelihood of getting the disease even if you take the appropriate precautions? Or to put it another way: imagine 1% of the population taking all the ideal precautions for the next year (and only going outside fro obvious necessities, like food/groceries/etc.). Will they also have a near 100% chance of getting it in your model? Or does 100% merely refer to # of infections / population?

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#680

Post by roywiggins »

thelastname wrote: post #674
svnpenn wrote: post #654

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe has twice the population of the United States. Yet despite this, United States has 4 TIMES the cases per day. Europe can relax because they worked hard in the beginning to get everything under control. The US never did that, most states (like my home state of Texas) did a half-assed closing for 3 weeks, so the numbers never really got under control.

I don't know but perhaps recent social unrest could have something to do with that? Europe is getting tired right now, and I'm not talking about economies but about people. You can't lock people for months and expect them to to obey indefinitely. It's unsustainable. It's more reasonable to apply some proportional restrictions than to lock everything down. Eg. limit users of a gym and require disinfection. That's how…

NYC saw substantial social unrest and didn't see any COVID spikes; marches and demonstrations have extended for months and the test positivity rate remains low.

I believe it's the decision not to reopen indoor dining and bars, and to mandate masks, that saved NYC the resurgence that the rest of the country has seen. You absolutely can control COVID even during the current period of social unrest; the US largely chose not to. COVID doesn't seem to like to spread that much during largely masked, outdoor protests. It loves to spread in bars and parties.

School is opening soon, so things will probably get worse, but nevertheless: NYC demonstrates that in an American context, COVID can still be controlled pretty well.

(NYC government has a lot to answer for w/r/t the initial response in March, but that's not the same issue)

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