Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial • Hacker News Board

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#221

Post by BLKNSLVR » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 9:57 PM UTC

TigeriusKirk wrote: post #123

thisisbrians wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't this like saying that the invention of agriculture will mean society has to start feeding hunter gatherers for free? That's not how it went. People find new ways to create value all the time, and yet every time we invent anything new people keep saying "all the jobs are going away." It has yet to happen in spite of the agricultural, industrial, and now tech revolutions.

Which new way of creating value will be immune to automation?

Maintenance of automation objects, although that's not entirely new it will expand at the same rate as the automation itself, maybe slightly lagging behind.

Improvements to automation; automation on top of automation.

Planetary colonisation planning.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#222

Post by missedthecue » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 9:57 PM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #162

missedthecue wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The thing about government programs that hand out cash is that the money will be circulated back into the local economy most of the time, which is a net benefit How is taxing the local economy to spend in the local economy (and some abroad) a net benefit? That's just transfer payments with some friction loss.

> How is taxing the local economy to spend in the local economy (and some abroad) a net benefit? Taxing the rich, who have a lower marginal propensity to consume and consume locally, and transferring to the poor, who have a higher marginal propensity to consume and to do so locally, increases the local velocity of money.

What do you think rich people do with the money they don't use to consume with?

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#223

Post by nodesocket » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 9:57 PM UTC

I've said this before here on HN, but Naval Ravikant (of AngelList) nailed the problem with government pay subsidies and universal basic income on a podcast with Joe Rogan.

"A slippery slide transfer straight into socialism. The moment people can start voting themselves money, combined with democracy it's just a matter of time before the bottom 51 votes themselves into the top 49. By the way, the slippery slope fallacy is not a fallacy; they haven’t thought it through.”

"The moment you start having a direct transfer mechanism like that in democracy, you're basically doing away with capitalism which is the engine of economic growth. You're also forcing the entrepreneur out, or telling them not to come here."

"People who are down on their luck, they're not looking for handouts. It's not just about money, it's also about status and meaning. The moment I start giving money to you, I've lowered your status and made you a second class citizen.”

"You have to teach a man to fish, not to basically throw your rod in and eat the leftover scraps."

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#224

Post by gwright » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 9:58 PM UTC

TigeriusKirk wrote: post #123

thisisbrians wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't this like saying that the invention of agriculture will mean society has to start feeding hunter gatherers for free? That's not how it went. People find new ways to create value all the time, and yet every time we invent anything new people keep saying "all the jobs are going away." It has yet to happen in spite of the agricultural, industrial, and now tech revolutions.

Which new way of creating value will be immune to automation?

There is a difference between thinking that many jobs might be automated away and the hidden assumption in your question that all jobs will be automated away. Why do you think all jobs are vulnerable?

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#225

Post by gwright » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 10:00 PM UTC

globuous wrote: post #26

OneGuy123 wrote: post #4

Based on how most jobs will get automated some form of an UBI will be required sooner or later. Now the only question is: how to you phase in UBI while still rewarding extra productive people to keep creating/innovating? Some will say "those people will innovate out of love". This is not always the case, many people are good at what they do and create many awesome things but given the chance they would rather do some…

In France, there is basically UBI, you just need to ask for it. Just having the French passport and no job qualifies you to RSA [1] which gives you about 550 euros a month (according to [1], but nets to ~490 according to a friend finishing law school that had to sign up for it since cov19 is making it very hard for him to find a job right now). I believe you've don't have to have ever worked to get RSA, just being ov…

Does RSA represent the complete package of assistance for someone or are their other programs (food assistance, housing, etc)?

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#226

Post by BLKNSLVR » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 10:01 PM UTC

DoreenMichele wrote: post #149

colourgarden wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you assume this is in response to the pandemic?

Fifty-five years of living and formally studying how people work and doing tons of therapy and yadda. We've been murdering Black people in the US for years and years and years. The usual response is "Well, you gotta understand. Policing is hard and it's a judgement call and it's unfortunate that so man Blacks end up dead after the cops get hold of them, but ...blah blah blah." And then a Black guy was murdered during…

I happen to agree.

When times are, relatively, good there isn't civil unrest enough for governments to propose anything particularly novel.

People want more of the same if they're "comfortable enough" and politics is in direct reaction to that.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#227

Post by missedthecue » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 10:02 PM UTC

anemoiac wrote: post #190

missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

> ...where is the proof that it won't hurt long term productivity, and where is the proof that it doesn't cause inflation[?] Assuming we could obtain reliable proof that UBI reduces productivity and/or increases inflation, that doesn't necessarily imply that it's an undesirable policy. The economy exists to serve humanity, not to maximize productivity or minimize inflation. It's certainly possible that a policy could…

The economy is not some ethereal beast that we must tame into doing our bidding. It is the way we measure production, consumption, and trade by humans. It cannot "serve" anyone. It is you and me and everyone else behaving in rational self interest.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#228

Post by DoreenMichele » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 10:03 PM UTC

BLKNSLVR wrote: post #226

DoreenMichele wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fifty-five years of living and formally studying how people work and doing tons of therapy and yadda. We've been murdering Black people in the US for years and years and years. The usual response is "Well, you gotta understand. Policing is hard and it's a judgement call and it's unfortunate that so man Blacks end up dead after the cops get hold of them, but ...blah blah blah." And then a Black guy was murdered during…

I happen to agree. When times are, relatively, good there isn't civil unrest enough for governments to propose anything particularly novel. People want more of the same if they're "comfortable enough" and politics is in direct reaction to that.

Yes. Exactly.

When things are mostly working, people don't want you to break stuff. When things are clearly not working, you can get agreement to try "the crazy thing."

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#229

Post by scarmig » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 10:03 PM UTC

missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

> No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing.

They provide lower bounds on the amount of time you can offer a guaranteed income without adverse effects on people's employment. Going to an extreme, if you offer people a 40 year UBI and they don't quit, then that's pretty damn strong evidence. 3 years offers some evidence; for particular subpopulations with short time horizons, if they keep on working for three years on UBI, I'd bet almost arbitrary amounts of money they'll keep on working indefinitely.

> No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program each month, you spend the $1k from the pilot on legitimate bills and now you have $1k to spend however you like. The study can't trace that money. (This isn't to say everyone on UBI uses it for drugs, rather, it's to point out that you cannot deduce they don't just by tracing the way the transfer payments are spent)

I believe these studies rely on self-reported alcohol etc consumption. The issues with self-reported consumption are already well-known and well-characterized.

> No kidding. You gave someone several thousand dollars no strings attached in a situation where neither taxes nor inflation would rise as a result.

These things are always worth verifying. One of the criticisms against a UBI is that it'll create a population of depressed losers who never interact with society. If people's lives and happiness are improved, that addresses that criticism.

> What UBI skeptical people want to know is where is the proof that we can afford to tax ourselves to pay ourselves, where is the proof that it won't hurt long term productivity, and where is the proof that it doesn't cause inflation. A 120 person 36 month trial program cannot answer any of these questions.

Could anything short of a full UBI implementation work as proof for you? If not, can you suggest what would? If, say, you took a random selection of 1000 people and promised them a lifelong UBI, and their labor force participation and levels of happiness stayed the same over the first ten years of the program, would that serve as proof to you?

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#230

Post by xenonite » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 10:06 PM UTC

vsareto wrote: post #135

molmalo wrote: post #100

I see the claims that this won't produce inflation with extreme scepticism. And I say this, living in a country that has had something similar to a basic income for years, although not fully universal (universal for kids, and people below certain income line), the vast majority of people get it and ended up resulting in that around half the public budget goes to social expenses. Every year that bag gets bigger, defic…

> I see the claims that this won't produce inflation with extreme scepticism. I haven't seen price drops since many people stopped working and can afford less, so I don't expect the system to work logically in the other direction either.

Rents are easily adjusted for the new income.

Limiting the increase of rents is often named as a feasible remedy. However this can be circumvented by renovations, after which the rent can be increased. Or reversely, renovations might be omitted totally, which yields a net quality decrease for the inhabitants in the long run.