Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why do you think AirBNB will be overvalued?
Because this happens with every SV company that is often in the news.
My zoom stock is doing quite well, thank you very much.
Pagerduty was a letdown, though.
Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement
31–40 of 118 posts
Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement
#32I'm upset, after using the platform for a decade, that they remove negative reviews of properties. I learned this recently. That included some of my very tame and reasonable reviews. Makes me want to short the stock when it IPOs, after its initial run-up out of vengeance.
You know, the moment the pandemic hit, the layoffs at Uber and Lyft came and the recent disappointing earnings and the worker classification ruling, it was just screaming "short me".
Lyft in particular offered some deranged predictions thinking this sort of market is sustainable and reaching "profitablity in 2021". This was them last year [0], this was them four months ago [1], and this is them now [2]. They seem to have used a malfunctioned crystal ball for that prediction.
Airbnb seems like they are now escaping for an IPO, but I'd rather short the stock until it reaches below its IPO price. This virus is not going away any time soon.
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21328871
Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement
#33Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement
#34Reality still hasn't hit the travel industry yet. We still haven't even begun to see the impact of covid on the economy start to unravel.
Business travel is done, but this is where a huge amount of airline and hotel profits come from. Travel is dirt cheap right now because, at least in the US, airlines have to fly. They can't lay off employees or reduce staff until, currently, end of September. But once they can I suspect we'll see very different behavior for airlines.
Beyond that we still haven't started to feel the full impact of all the job losses, and the people who remain employed but at substantially lower rates, or in more volunerable positions.
The relatively young travelers that make up a lot of AirBnb's business, have largely not been concerned about the virus, certainly aren't concerned about future economic impacts and have mostly seen cheap flights with hotels unwilling to book so they head to a rental.
These are travelers whose optimism is based on a decade+ of perpetual economic growth. Even those losing their jobs don't really believe that there can be a prolonged period where it's hard to find work.
I believe that this coming Fall will bring a lot of reality to the forefront. I suspect leadership at AirBNB has similar thoughts and wants to get that IPO before the buzzer.
Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement
#35Reality still hasn't hit the travel industry yet. We still haven't even begun to see the impact of covid on the economy start to unravel. Business travel is done, but this is where a huge amount of airline and hotel profits come from. Travel is dirt cheap right now because, at least in the US, airlines have to fly. They can't lay off employees or reduce staff until, currently, end of September. But once they can I su…
> They can't lay off employees or reduce staff until, currently, end of September.
The WARN letters for October 1 layoffs have all already gone out. They needed to be out before August 1st. So we'll know of any further layoffs with two months notice.
Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement
#36I'm upset, after using the platform for a decade, that they remove negative reviews of properties. I learned this recently. That included some of my very tame and reasonable reviews. Makes me want to short the stock when it IPOs, after its initial run-up out of vengeance.
You shouldn't short a stock on the basis of you not liking it or based on X bad business practices. You should only short it if you believe that the market will perceive it as over valued, and the valuation will go down. That's it.
Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement
#37Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement
#38Reality still hasn't hit the travel industry yet. We still haven't even begun to see the impact of covid on the economy start to unravel. Business travel is done, but this is where a huge amount of airline and hotel profits come from. Travel is dirt cheap right now because, at least in the US, airlines have to fly. They can't lay off employees or reduce staff until, currently, end of September. But once they can I su…
I think the big bucks for AirBnb in the future are in the medium-long term rental market, not the vacation market. The >1 month rentals also happen to bypass most of the regulations they're having issues with.
Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement
#39Reality still hasn't hit the travel industry yet. We still haven't even begun to see the impact of covid on the economy start to unravel. Business travel is done, but this is where a huge amount of airline and hotel profits come from. Travel is dirt cheap right now because, at least in the US, airlines have to fly. They can't lay off employees or reduce staff until, currently, end of September. But once they can I su…
I’m not so sure. Look at Sweden, look at NYC. The numbers ain’t going up again until now. There have been pandemics before, that’s not the first one. And after the pandemic everything will be as before.
Re: Airbnb announces confidential submission of draft Registration Statement
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why do you think AirBNB will be overvalued?
Because this happens with every SV company that is often in the news.
I'm long term bullish too, but most companies don't take off after their IPO. I like the approach of buying the stock and selling calls on top of them (to also capitalize on high IV).