Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition • Hacker News Board

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#631

Post by nradov » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 9:24 PM UTC

Raidion wrote: post #585

nradov wrote: post #488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What specific long-term gain will we achieve with that short-term sacrifice? Sure we can keep most gyms closed for several more months, and that might marginally reduce the spread of the virus for a while. But the virus is now endemic and will be with us essentially forever. We have to reopen gyms eventually, and then we'll be right back where we started. As long as the curve has been flattened sufficiently and the h…

I think you answered your own question: "As long as the curve has been flattened sufficiently and the healthcare system isn't overwhelmed" The difference between "overwhelmed" and "not overwhelmed" is pretty subtle. You can measure this in ICU beds and hospital capacity, but that's not sustainable. You have to start asking "How many hours are health care workers working?". You also have to ask, if we did have any set…

The healthcare system isn't running at the red line. Almost all hospitals have adequate capacity. Most healthcare providers are still working shorter than normal hours. So your concerns are unfounded.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#632

Post by fuzxi » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 9:26 PM UTC

xmprt wrote: post #330

at-fates-hands wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering most states have been in full on shelter in place lock down mode, there aren't many places people can socialize anyways. All of the normal places where you see people socialize have bee closed or went out business. Restaurants, bars, night clubs, sporting events, live music (festivals and stadiums) and many, many others. It would be one thing to conform to what your saying, but its become hard if not impo…

1. There's so much outdoor space to socialize. You make it seem like the choice is between doing it indoors or not doing it at all. 2. Why can't people socialize online? It's even easier nowadays. It might not be the same thing but it can get pretty close.

>2. Why can't people socialize online? It's even easier nowadays. It might not be the same thing but it can get pretty close.

It is not anywhere near close. Video calls transfer speech, tone of voice, and facial expressions at best. Body language is a vital part of face-to-face communication, and there is no video call equivalent of leaning in towards someone or putting your hand on theirs.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#633

Post by mehrdadn » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 9:27 PM UTC

Ensorceled wrote: post #626

mehrdadn wrote: post #598

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) The fatality rate of a car crash is also about 0.5% [1], but that doesn't prevent us from driving. That means there's a piece of the puzzle missing here, right? Note that I'm not concluding this means we should go to gyms (or whatever). I'm just pointing out your analysis is missing an important factor, making it faulty/unconvincing. Edit: Changed the statistic sour…

> though if you're disputing the specific numbers, you're missing my point I'll bite ... what is your point? Approximately 30000 people die a year in car accidents a year in the US, COVID has killed 170K in six months. What's the missing piece you are trying to bring to the table?

The probability of dying given you have the disease (/car crash) is not what you need to look at. You need to include the chances of actually getting the disease (/being in a car crash) in the first place, is my point.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#634

Post by Alupis » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 9:27 PM UTC

bsder wrote: post #624

Alupis wrote: post #472

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Keep your distance, wear a mask, and stick to small groups" is not the same as "do not socialize". Ok, but then we have people doing solo activities, all by themselves, minding their own business -- getting arrested by lunatics[1] because we said no beach allowed during Covid[2]! How do we reconcile that? [1] https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-03/paddle-b... [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpsaSf…

> because we said no beach allowed during Covid We said "No beach during Covid" because a bunch of lunatics flooded the open beaches. And while the beach may not be a problem, those same lunatics flood the gas stations, Walmarts, etc. and DON'T WEAR MASKS . In addition, California never really locked down. California has almost continuously had an R0 above 1.0. Mostly due to the lunatics in Southern California. If yo…

Why is it not OK to jog on the beach by yourself? You don't seem to have an answer for that.

Don't allow large gatherings? OK fine, I might object to this, but I can see the other side at least.

Not allowing individuals to do individual activities? That seems misguided at best.

After all, we do allow Ice Cream Parlors to be open, and outdoor seating at restaurants where you sit in close proximity to other people who are not wearing masks... how is that better than jogging on the beach all by yourself?

They aren't better, and none of this is actually about safety nor is it about "Flattening the Curve" anymore. We flattened the curve long, long ago.

No, it's not about safety, it's about compliance. You will comply, regardless of how illogical or contradictory certain County Health Official Edicts are.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#635

Post by coryfklein » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 9:27 PM UTC

zelly wrote: post #409

Virtually all the people who died of covid were fat[1]. If the military forced everyone to exercise (and diet, but that's harder to mandate than exercising) it would have been much more effective than forcing everyone to wear masks. (Masks are still good though.) Most of us are going to get covid even if we stay inside all day (I got it twice) so this should be a wake-up call to be prepared to survive it. Or don't, s…

> Virtually all the people who died of covid were fat

This is true, but mostly because virtually all people are overweight or obese. At least, the link you provided cited that 74% of critically ill Covid patients in the UK were obese, while it turns out that 64% of the UK is already in the overweight/obese category anyway.

Masks are still probably a more effective way to prevent critical illness from covid than exercise.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#636

Post by helaoban » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 9:30 PM UTC

johnwalkr wrote: post #543

Wow with these comments. You going to the gym is not saving the economy. Yes, we can't shut everything down but you'd think the article was about shutting down grocery stores or the stock market. And by not doing your part, your whole community could be stunted for 2 years. Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to s…

Spoken like somebody with no skin in the game. Go preach this nonsense to small business owners that have had their livelihoods taken from them and see how long you can keep your head above the parapet.

> Support temporary benefits to your fellow citizens.

What benefits? Support how? Prayers?

Support that small business in your community with your wallet.

> Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death.

Where's the data to back up any close to an assertion like this?

You betray an inane non-appreciation of what is actually happening to people economically.

Go out and spend your money, support local businesses.

Edit: To address the claim about the 1/200 rate directly, that number is based on bogus 0.5 - 1% global IFR estimates that haven't been controlled for any demographic group. The IFR for people under 70 is less than 0.1, and likely much, much lower for under 40. And that's not even controlling for anything except age.[1]

1. https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/53c0dc391b...

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#637

Post by syshum » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 9:30 PM UTC

johnwalkr wrote: post #543

Wow with these comments. You going to the gym is not saving the economy. Yes, we can't shut everything down but you'd think the article was about shutting down grocery stores or the stock market. And by not doing your part, your whole community could be stunted for 2 years. Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to s…

>>Yes, we can't shut everything down but you'd think the article was about shutting down grocery stores

Ahh the old "essential business" justification.

Every business is essential to the owners, employees and even customers that depend on those businesses. I do not believe it is the proper role of government to tell people what is and is not "essential" to them.

This is with out getting it into the corrupt policies many local government employed where by some businesses where allowed to operate due to political reasons, but other similar businesses were forced to close again for political reasons.

Then there was completely illogical enforcement where small retail businesses where forced to close even when they were doing Online Only sales and the only person in the store was the owner.[2]

Mike Rowe is correct: all workers are essential.[1]

[1] https://fee.org/articles/mike-rowe-is-right-there-s-no-such-...

[2] http://newjersey.news12.com/story/42155935/police-interrupt-...

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#638

Post by m0zg » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 9:31 PM UTC

kimmeld wrote: post #586

showdeadtest wrote: post #570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think more and more people are tired of having their jobs, educations, and social activities toyed with like they are trivial things.

Social activities are most certainly trivial when compared to a pandemic. Right now my kid’s school is starting remote only primarily because teenagers and early 20’s somethings couldn’t stop going to parties over the summer. Actions have consequences.

And we'll all be paying for reduced quality of education of these kids for the rest of our lives. In my son's school, the only requirement to get an "A" last semester was to turn in _any homework at all_, doesn't matter if it's complete or correct - nobody checked. There are now a lot of "A" students.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#639

Post by divbzero » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 9:31 PM UTC

arxv33 wrote: post #623

johnwalkr wrote: post #543

Wow with these comments. You going to the gym is not saving the economy. Yes, we can't shut everything down but you'd think the article was about shutting down grocery stores or the stock market. And by not doing your part, your whole community could be stunted for 2 years. Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to s…

I travelled all over Europe past two months and I must say Europe is quite laxed. And there cases haven’t really gone up. Pretty much every outdoor cafes in Europe were open with a few exceptions and I didn’t see much difference other than people wearing masks and social distancing between tables. I think in US everything is polarized and politicized. To the point that wearing masks is somehow considered against free…

Europe can be lax now precisely because it was strict early enough and long enough to bring prevalence down to a safer level.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#640

Post by gvjddbnvdrbv » Wed, Aug 19, 2020, 9:33 PM UTC

arxv33 wrote: post #623

johnwalkr wrote: post #543

Wow with these comments. You going to the gym is not saving the economy. Yes, we can't shut everything down but you'd think the article was about shutting down grocery stores or the stock market. And by not doing your part, your whole community could be stunted for 2 years. Also congratulations for not caring about a 1 in 200 chance of death (pretty high by the way) because you're healthy and passing on the risk to s…

I travelled all over Europe past two months and I must say Europe is quite laxed. And there cases haven’t really gone up. Pretty much every outdoor cafes in Europe were open with a few exceptions and I didn’t see much difference other than people wearing masks and social distancing between tables. I think in US everything is polarized and politicized. To the point that wearing masks is somehow considered against free…

Most places in Europe locked down early and harder than the US. We got damn close to elimination in many areas. This meant that many countries have been able to broadly reopen their economies. Sadly not every country played ball and it is spreading again.