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Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

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Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#431

Post by polote »

ceejayoz wrote: post #402
polote wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The head of the strategy of Sweden, keep repeating that he is not sure masks are working, how you can be so sure that he is wrong, and decides that's others who are not listening ? Of course it is clear that if someone has covid and wear a mask, the probability to transmit covid will decrease (I was actually encourage people to wear a mask 6 months ago), but will it stop ? no. people can still transmit it by touching…

The head of Sweden's response is quoted as saying: > "If we were to run into the same disease, knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would end up doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done." https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0... He's on record saying mask requirements will be needed if cases started going back up: https://www.thelocal…

> He's on record saying mask requirements will be needed if cases started going back up:

So if cases started going back up, which is not the case for now, so this is not an argument

> The end result: Same economic damage as the other Nordic countries, but substantially higher deaths.

You compare the economic impact of one country which was hit by the virus (Sweden) and one which was not (Germany,Finland, ...). What is going to happen if the virus restart in Germany and Finland and not in Sweden ?

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#432

Post by jdminhbg »

reaperducer wrote: post #230
nitrogen wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been a while since I've seen mention of actuarial analyses of the pandemic vs lockdowns. Could millions of people with muscle atrophy cause more economic harm?

Could millions of people with muscle atrophy cause more economic harm? Who cares? Why is "economic" harm so important? I'm really tired of people saying "But what about the economy?" I really don't care. I care about my health and the health of my family members. If some artisan dog biscuit company goes out of business, so be it.

> Why is "economic" harm so important?

The "economy" is just our way of measuring what people do for themselves and others all day. "Some artisan dog biscuit company" is someone else's lifelong work and dream, not just a number in a spreadsheet. Minimizing may make you feel better about selfishly demanding everyone turn their lives off, but it's not an accurate representation of the world.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#433

Post by kyledrake »

polote wrote: post #390
cowpig wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's pretty rational for someone to understand that and make personal choices... No, it's not; it's arrogant. All of the epidemiologists and experts seem to think otherwise. What do you know that they don't? So far 172,000 people have died in the US due to Coronavirus, directly[1]. The actual number of people who have died, if you factor in the effect of the virus on infrastructure and missed diagnoses is about dou…

This is not the issue. Best case in term of covid related death is to keep everyone at home, no freedom and get food delivery directly at the door Worst case, is to do as nothing happened There are a spectrum of possible responses. But we have to accept that some people are going to die if we want other to live. Each group can put the cursor where it wants, but you can't have, no death and complete freedom. Some peop…

I find in practice that the people in my life better for my long term health set the cursor more towards "prevent needless death with relatively simple changes to behavior", and less towards "Raven in Snow Crash embedding a nuclear weapon into his body that will detonate if anyone tries to kill him".

I'm not sure where that opinion fits in a rigidly logical argument that prohibits sound judgment due to its ambiguity.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#434

Post by recursive »

tomc1985 wrote: post #406
polote wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then lets lockdown and force people who are less healthy to take all the steps to protect themselves, and leave alone the healty ones ?

So... segregation? Something tells me that won't really fly

Having or being vulnerable to a virus isn't a protected class.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#435

Post by karagenit »

dijit wrote: post #416
bazzert wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> We're approaching the total death toll of World War II[3]. assuming you mean the US death toll also bear in mind the median age of WW II casualties was something like 26; while the median age for covid victims is 75+. Not to diminish the latter but they are very different.

> while the median age for covid victims is 75+. You mean 48. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6924e2-H.pdf

I think the link you cited states that 48 is the median age of infections, whereas the person you're replying to is talking about deaths. I don't have national data, but in my state (Indiana) 51.4% of deaths are 80+ years old according to coronavirus.in.gov

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#436

Post by mancerayder »

readingnews wrote: post #211

There is a crossfit gym that I pass by every morning on the way to work. It is full, and never stopped during this pandemic. Even at 7AM, it is full of patrons. I would call the "proper authorities", but since there is a State Police car parked outside every morning, and he is in there working out, just like before the pandemic, I doubt calling anyone would do anything. Adding to the post, I read it earlier... it is…

They work out in groups because they congregate in places with pull-up bars, bumper plates, barbells, medicine balls and so forth. Otherwise only those with houses and garages get to work out.

Not justifying it, I'm just jealous because my bedroom has turned into a gym and it sucks.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#437

Post by dragonwriter »

zelly wrote: post #409

Virtually all the people who died of covid were fat[1]. If the military forced everyone to exercise (and diet, but that's harder to mandate than exercising) it would have been much more effective than forcing everyone to wear masks. (Masks are still good though.) Most of us are going to get covid even if we stay inside all day (I got it twice) so this should be a wake-up call to be prepared to survive it. Or don't, s…

> Virtually all the people who died of covid were fat[1].

Your source doesn't support that. Viewing each of the separate country-specific statistics as being generally applicable you could conclude:

* A majority were obese, but a significant minority were not.

* Virtually all had some preexisting condition that COVID aggravated, and some (but not all) of those were preexisting conditions for which obesity is a risk factor.

> If the military forced everyone to exercise (and diet, but that's harder to mandate than exercising) it would have been much more effective than forcing everyone to wear masks.

That's not at all supported by any evidence which you've presented. For one thing you seem to have not considered in dreaming this up, people (especially, but not exclusively, of advanced age) with the kind of preexisting conditions involved often can't just pick up an exercise routine even if doing so before developing the conditions could have prevented them.

> Most of us are going to get covid even if we stay inside all day (I got it twice)

While there is some concern about whether getting it gives you long-term immunity, AFAICT there is no confirmed reinfection and most indicated potential reinfections are more likely to involve at least one testing error rather than an actual reinfection.

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#438

Post by bazzert »

dijit wrote: post #416
bazzert wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> We're approaching the total death toll of World War II[3]. assuming you mean the US death toll also bear in mind the median age of WW II casualties was something like 26; while the median age for covid victims is 75+. Not to diminish the latter but they are very different.

> while the median age for covid victims is 75+. You mean 48. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6924e2-H.pdf

what ?

" After exclusions, data for 1,320,488 (94%) cases were analyzed.Median age was 48 years"

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#439

Post by btilly »

hammock wrote: post #305
btilly wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Risk of transmission goes up indoors, with heavy breathing, and being exposed for longer than 10 minutes. People who exercise, are going to breathe heavily. People on equipment or in a class stay longer than 10 minutes. And gyms are indoors and often not well-ventilated. The result is that gyms are an excellent space for spreading COVID-19. And measures that reduce the spread for things like walking around a store ar…

Curious, is there a documented case of community spread through a gym that you can point to? Here is some evidence in the NY Times that counters your argument: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/health/coronavirus-gyms-f...

In https://www.vox.com/21296067/coronavirus-covid-symptoms-supe... you will find the following passage indicating that community spread doesn't merely happen in gyms, but gyms are actually a prime location type for it to happen:

Researchers have been tracking many superspreading events around the globe, and there seem to be recurring locations no matter what the country. In addition to those we have heard most about, like prisons, food processing plants, and elder care facilities, there have also been numerous large superspreading events at bars, churches, offices, gyms, and shopping centers.

(Note gyms are on the list.)

Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition

#440

Post by Chris2048 »

cowpig wrote: post #375
andrelayer wrote: post #332

I think a lot of people in this discussion are pitting the argument at people prioritizing their individual choices over the collective health of the community. I think that is a very singular framing from one side. A lot of people I know just believe that the virus itself is not as deadly as the reaction warrants. The infectious mortality rate of Covid is at best twice that of the normal flu, which isn't nothing and…

> It's pretty rational for someone to understand that and make personal choices... No, it's not; it's arrogant. All of the epidemiologists and experts seem to think otherwise. What do you know that they don't? So far 172,000 people have died in the US due to Coronavirus, directly[1]. The actual number of people who have died, if you factor in the effect of the virus on infrastructure and missed diagnoses is about dou…

> All of the epidemiologists and experts seem to think otherwise.

What do all the experts think about whether Epstein killed himself or not?

People choose to believe what they want, because they can't rely on believing the government/media/public opinion.

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