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Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

businessinsider.com

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Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#31

Post by yboris »

missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

I'm puzzled why we can't phase it in over time. Start with $100/month. The US can handle that. And then ramp it up as we see fit.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#32

Post by simion314 »

missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

Still, skeptics like might have 1000 reasons why it won't work, such small studies could reduce the 1000 to a smaller number. If the study would have failed you would probably be happy and not argue that it was not correct and we should do it on a full country. If the study fails we give up, then if it does not fail we can try new larger studies.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#33

Post by danck »

missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

You are suggesting that these are quotes from the article. They are not. Also in the linked interview one of the scientists leading the study openly admits these points: “We cannot simulate a world of UBI. [...] We will not find out anything about these economic consequences, not even about possible power shifts between employers and employees, the amount of net costs or the effects on migration.” This study is meant to add data to the picture and improve the discourse.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#34

Post by michannne »

traviswingo wrote: post #8
michannne wrote: post #3

Unless Germany has a secret fleet of human-level AIs that can do anything a regular German worker can for free, this will fail. Even worse is that this failure will make them think UBIs will never work.

You're making the hard assumption that, by distributing a UBI, people will just sit around and do nothing. There is no data to back this statement up, and it's very likely that people will actually work more while on UBI. UBI is designed to provide _choice_ for workers, not force them to do something they don't want to do. For all we know, UBI could lead to solving some of the worlds biggest problems by giving people…

I find it interesting that even after a worldwide pandemic has proved that the majority of humans will prefer to act selfishly to maintain their own comfort level, you still somehow hold out hope that given literally free money, that the majority wouldn't also use this money selfishly to maintain their comfort level.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#35

Post by joubert »

bilal4hmed wrote: post #13
traviswingo wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're making the hard assumption that, by distributing a UBI, people will just sit around and do nothing. There is no data to back this statement up, and it's very likely that people will actually work more while on UBI. UBI is designed to provide _choice_ for workers, not force them to do something they don't want to do. For all we know, UBI could lead to solving some of the worlds biggest problems by giving people…

Look at the middle east, countries like Saudi, Iran, Kuwait, Qatar have done it for decades. Using your logic they should be ruling the world. Instead it has created a dependent population, unwilling to work and needing an army of immigrants to do the work at horrible conditions.

> Look at the middle east, countries like Saudi, Iran, Kuwait, Qatar have done it for decades.

False, according the the World Bank : “Currently, no country has a UBI in place, although there have been (and still are) several small-scale pilots and a few larger-scale experiences. Only two countries—Mongolia and the Islamic Republic of Iran—had a national UBI in place for a short period of time.“

https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/socialprotection/publicat...

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#36

Post by missedthecue »

danck wrote: post #33
missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

You are suggesting that these are quotes from the article. They are not. Also in the linked interview one of the scientists leading the study openly admits these points: “We cannot simulate a world of UBI. [...] We will not find out anything about these economic consequences, not even about possible power shifts between employers and employees, the amount of net costs or the effects on migration.” This study is meant…

Thank you for pointing that out. It's not my intention to mislead. I've edited to clarify.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#37

Post by missedthecue »

MisterBastahrd wrote: post #11
jpxw wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They also only give the money to a small number of people Not to mention that the real question is whether UBI makes sense economically, not whether people like money, which is almost indisputable

The thing about government programs that hand out cash is that the money will be circulated back into the local economy most of the time, which is a net benefit (I think it would be a net positive if the money was required to be spent locally if the beneficiary makes above a certain income). It's not like it's getting thrown down a black hole. Even if a person is making great money, that additional money is more like…

>The thing about government programs that hand out cash is that the money will be circulated back into the local economy most of the time, which is a net benefit

How is taxing the local economy to spend in the local economy (and some abroad) a net benefit? That's just transfer payments with some friction loss.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#38

Post by thelean12 »

slg wrote: post #24
jpxw wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... which is a terrible idea

That is how a decent chuck of macroeconomics works. There are some things that exist at such a scale that you can't accurately experiment with them. You can only theorize, run models or simulations, and observe real world results after implementation.

The problem is that anything besides regulated capitalism with some social features built in has utterly failed. And when it fails, it fails HARD.

So implementing something so drastic without knowing if it'll work is extremely risky.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#39

Post by Florin_Andrei »

missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

> A 120 person 36 month trial program cannot answer any of these questions.

So what are the questions that such a trial could answer?

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#40

Post by JorgeGT »

slg wrote: post #24
jpxw wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... which is a terrible idea

That is how a decent chuck of macroeconomics works. There are some things that exist at such a scale that you can't accurately experiment with them. You can only theorize, run models or simulations, and observe real world results after implementation.

This is the main issue of macroeconomics as a science. There is not a "control Germany" subjected to the same history that the actual one, that can be observed in parallel to ascertain if a macroeconomic policy is beneficial or not.
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