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Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

businessinsider.com

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Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#11

Post by MisterBastahrd »

jpxw wrote: post #5
missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

They also only give the money to a small number of people Not to mention that the real question is whether UBI makes sense economically, not whether people like money, which is almost indisputable

The thing about government programs that hand out cash is that the money will be circulated back into the local economy most of the time, which is a net benefit (I think it would be a net positive if the money was required to be spent locally if the beneficiary makes above a certain income). It's not like it's getting thrown down a black hole. Even if a person is making great money, that additional money is more likely to be spent on higher quality local services, aside from online purchases from places like Amazon.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#13

Post by bilal4hmed »

traviswingo wrote: post #8
michannne wrote: post #3

Unless Germany has a secret fleet of human-level AIs that can do anything a regular German worker can for free, this will fail. Even worse is that this failure will make them think UBIs will never work.

You're making the hard assumption that, by distributing a UBI, people will just sit around and do nothing. There is no data to back this statement up, and it's very likely that people will actually work more while on UBI. UBI is designed to provide _choice_ for workers, not force them to do something they don't want to do. For all we know, UBI could lead to solving some of the worlds biggest problems by giving people…

Look at the middle east, countries like Saudi, Iran, Kuwait, Qatar have done it for decades. Using your logic they should be ruling the world. Instead it has created a dependent population, unwilling to work and needing an army of immigrants to do the work at horrible conditions.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#14

Post by em500 »

OneGuy123 wrote: post #4

Based on how most jobs will get automated some form of an UBI will be required sooner or later. Now the only question is: how to you phase in UBI while still rewarding extra productive people to keep creating/innovating? Some will say "those people will innovate out of love". This is not always the case, many people are good at what they do and create many awesome things but given the chance they would rather do some…

> Based on how most jobs will get automated

Will that happen before or after we get fully driverless car everywhere?

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#16

Post by slg »

missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

As a general supporter of UBI, I'm not sure there is any way to actually test UBI without just implementing it at full scale. The U is an important part of it and like you said the expectation of permanence is crucial to seeing a change in long term planning and behaviors.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#17

Post by ghthor »

slg wrote: post #16
missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

As a general supporter of UBI, I'm not sure there is any way to actually test UBI without just implementing it at full scale. The U is an important part of it and like you said the expectation of permanence is crucial to seeing a change in long term planning and behaviors.

Test it in production.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#18

Post by dageshi »

traviswingo wrote: post #8
michannne wrote: post #3

Unless Germany has a secret fleet of human-level AIs that can do anything a regular German worker can for free, this will fail. Even worse is that this failure will make them think UBIs will never work.

You're making the hard assumption that, by distributing a UBI, people will just sit around and do nothing. There is no data to back this statement up, and it's very likely that people will actually work more while on UBI. UBI is designed to provide _choice_ for workers, not force them to do something they don't want to do. For all we know, UBI could lead to solving some of the worlds biggest problems by giving people…

I don't think there's any data to prove that they wouldn't?

Honestly what's more likely to happen is, the people who have always been self motivated to drive themselves towards goals will still succeed, the ones who would be pretty happy just playing video games and getting stoned/drunk will have an easier way of doing just that.

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#19

Post by throwaway_kufu »

missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

> where is the proof that it won't hurt long term productivity,

By that measure couldn’t we say the Capitalism pilot program has failed? Sure productivity is ever increasing and business productivity per employee is at historic highs...but all that productivity has only resulted in a larger wealth gap with all the benefits going to the investor class and net negative to workers whose real wages have been stagnant for decades?

Re: Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial

#20

Post by read_if_gay_ »

slg wrote: post #16
missedthecue wrote: post #2

These studies don't really prove anything. Common arguments in favor of these studies - "They prove people don't quit work on UBI!" - No, they prove that people who are in a program that is very clearly temporary will not end their careers for a short pilot program. This means nothing. "They prove people won't spend it on drugs, booze, and lotto tickets!" - No. If you make $1k from a job and $1k from a pilot program…

As a general supporter of UBI, I'm not sure there is any way to actually test UBI without just implementing it at full scale. The U is an important part of it and like you said the expectation of permanence is crucial to seeing a change in long term planning and behaviors.

I imagine a permanent study with a few hundred people is still a lot easier to implement than permanent UBI for everyone.
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