As a non-American in a more or less socially unified country, I am really enjoying all the responses from Americans in this thread.
Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition
201–210 of 1001 posts
Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition
#202Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Reporting to the authorities in the US means calling the police. No it doesn't. It could mean code enforcement, or the health department.
Same deal. If either of those groups tell you to close (and they already have, in the case of speakeasy gyms), who do you think shows up next to make sure you’re closed? It’s not men carrying clipboards. They’re carrying pistols, and they have machine guns in the trunk of the vehicle they drove there. DO NOT call the state to solve your problems. If you wouldn’t solve the problem by taking a gun over there, don’t cal…
We live in a society. There are rules and consequences to breaking them.
Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition
#203This seems incredibly dangerous. Are the speakeasy gyms requiring negative COVID tests? Are they doing temperature screenings upon entry? How diligently are they sanitizing equipment? How well ventilated are these various areas? Why are people ignoring all of these risks, what kind of threat model do they have?
By my rough calculations, for a 35M, going to the gym during Covid for an hour a day, for 160 straight days (so 6.67 days of gym time), can be expected to cut one's life expectancy by about 10 days.
Odds of dying this year: 0.002138 [1]. Odds of dying this year if they get Covid: 0.00271 (~n*1.3) [2]
Odds of contracting Covid over 160 days if going to gym: 60% Odds of contracting Covid if not going to Gym: 43% (assuming 10 people at the gym each time, 1 hour workout durations, odds of someone at Gym having it in any one session at .025%, and odds of catching it 20% at gym).
Now what about the negative second order affects of spreading it to others? I did not model those, but I think at this point there could be a compelling case that not catching it now might be net harmful to the folks at high risk, since they would need to remain in lockdown if there remains a large number of people around who are not immune.
[1] https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html [2] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v...
Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition
#204Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'd guess the threat model is something like: relatively low local disease prevalence rate, the likelihood that infected people show up to workout is lower than other activities like office-work, and relatively low likelihood of personal adverse outcomes in someone healthy enough to be going to an underground gym. Further, there are major benefits to psychological state, social/emotional state, mental acuity, health,…
I'd like to believe that the scientific and medical authorities who are being consulted by local and state leadership have done exactly that calculation... and that result was states mandating that these businesses be shut down. Why do randos think they understand the threat model better than the CDC and state medical authorities?
> Why do randos think they understand the threat model better than the CDC and state medical authorities?
This is HN. We get a post on at least a weekly basis to the effect of: medications shouldn’t require prescriptions, anyone with an internet connection and a couple brain cells can manage their own care.
HN: home of “no one in management can possibly understand the technical complexity of software” and “who needs doctors, obviously I can easily understand that other enormous technical field.”
Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition
#205This timeline sucks
Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition
#206Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Now we have a lot of governors issuing decrees based on emergency authorities that they’ve been using for six months. This is quite simply a conflict with our basic notion of democracy. We do not have rulers, yet our governors are issuing rules purportedly carrying the weight of law with no oversight from legislature. That was my biggest issue with the whole situation in the USA. All of these emergency measures wer…
> doesn't like giving up control after whatever "emergency" situation happens I genuinely don't understand this fear re: COVID. Why would governors want keep gyms and restaurants closed post-COVID? What do mayors gain by forcing people to wear masks post-COVID? It's in the government's interest, as an institution, to open things up ASAP. They're hemorrhaging money. The things I'd actually worry about -- using COVID t…
The problem is, what's post-COVID? The virus won't be eradicated any time soon, even after a vaccine arrives; most experts predict a timeline of decades to never. I doubt many mayors are supervillains who want to keep people miserable just for the sake of it - but I worry that quite a few might feel like they have to as long as cases are being detected. (Why do we still have strict TSA restrictions, even though everyone agrees they make flying miserable and everyone knows they're unreliable at actually detecting dangerous objects in luggage?)
Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition
#207Earlier quoted context omitted.
The last couple months has done more damage than good to me. I'm that type of person who'll lose muscle quickly if stops working out for mote than 2 weeks. It's not about you. It's about everyone else. How can someone be so selfish and self-absorbed that they think their "muscle mass" is more important than the health of hundreds or thousands of other people? I know this question may violate some HN policy, but I can…
If you want to be Howard Hughes that's your choice. If someone wants to stay healthy through exercise that's their choice.
By all means, stay healthy. But don't endanger other people's lives to satiate your vanity.
And let's be clear here: This isn't about the "health" of the gym-goers. It's about preserving their self-image.
Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition
#208We haven't evolved to constantly evaluate our actions against things we cannot see right in front of us (in this case a virus). Nothing actually happening during this pandemic is surprising in the least.
Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition
#209I see a lot of outdoor gyms in parks and what not. Outdoors is not only safer but also more pleasant. And if it rains a bit running through the rain will give an extra feat you don’t find in regular gyms. Ok, kidding about the rain but I prefer doing my workouts outside the gym when the weather permits. Calistenics aka exercises with the weight of your body are quite efficient and don’t make one look like an ogre
>Outdoors is not only safer but also more pleasant. Speak for yourself. I live in a hot and humid place and exercising outside is incredibly unpleasant. It's 10 times worse if you're standing in direct sunlight. >Calistenics aka exercises with the weight of your body are quite efficient and don’t make one look like an ogre What if I want to look like an ogre?
You’re an exception and you are more than welcome to join a secret gym. I was just pointing out to others that outdoors is a good option for exercising, at least during the summer. If you want to look like an ogre you probably don’t want to be seen outdoors anyways.
Re: Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition
#210Did the "shutdown normal gym" mean that patrons would be violating whatever policies forced the gym to shutdown in the first place? If so, that really bothers me. Any excess contagion would endanger everyone, not just the gym users. Please consider reporting the details to the appropriate authorities. EDIT: If someone is inclined to downvote this comment, I'd be very grateful for a clarification why (comment or DM).…
Reporting to the authorities in the US means calling the police. Don’t call the police in America. Furthermore, virus or no virus, the right to peacefully assemble is a human right that cannot legally or morally be abridged. I don’t want the police to shut down protests. I also don’t want them to shut down gyms, or voting, or churches, or any other peaceful reason (dumb) people wish to assemble. Assembly in the middl…
>I also don’t want them to shut down gyms, or voting, or churches, or any other peaceful reason (dumb) people wish to assemble.
You are attempting to equate assembly for the purpose of fighting racism or exercising vitally important activities like voting, with "assembly" for the purpose of "sick gainz bruh". This is such a false equivalency that it's laughable, and honestly also a little insulting.