This was before the marketing departments of google and other frauds made objective thought about this impossible.
Open Problems in Robotics
121–130 of 232 posts
Re: Open Problems in Robotics
#122Earlier quoted context omitted.
Miles driven is a useless metric. Stick your vehicle on a treadmill and have it drive a billion miles. What does that tell you? Edit to add: a better metric would be something like "billions of decisions made where human life was at stake".
It's pretty clear the they meant "distance driven in ordinary conditions where humans normally drive cars".
Re: Open Problems in Robotics
#123Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Without an error bound, ML can’t be in charge of anything that could put human lives at risk Humans don't have "error bounds" either, and you trust them just fine.
Humans have a mental model of humans, they can predict what another human is going to do with reasonable accuracy. Robots are wholly artificial so there is no existing mental model we can apply to them to understand why and how they act.
Re: Open Problems in Robotics
#124The objections to neural nets as the solution to all the problems on his list are the same as the old objections to neural nets as the solution to computer vision, speech recognition, translation, playing Go, etc. The objections will fall in the face of overwhelming evidence that neural nets simply work better than other approaches to these types of problems. For a long time software was the reason robots didn't work…
Any research/potential example of such actuators ?
Re: Open Problems in Robotics
#125One problem I encountered while working on robotics is that many commonly used algorithms yield approximate solutions with no error bounds. They work 99.99‰ of the time. This is fine from a computer science or math point of view, but very scary from an engineering perspective, specifically when there are humans nearby. A big part of me struggles to accept the suitability of algorithms coming from gaming engines or ma…
99.99% is pretty fine from the engineering point of view. The buildings and other constructions surrounds us have about the same theoretical reliability considering all the uncertainties involved like weather, load and impacts, long term characteristics, material and manufacturing uncertainties. Of course this centuries long trial and error supported pretty simple science of construction engineering needs to be suppo…
You are off by a few nines.
Transportation machines are expected to have 5 or 6 of them. And those are the most dangerous kind we keep around. Everything else is more reliable.
Re: Open Problems in Robotics
#126It feels like computers in the 70s. All the pieces are there but there aren't mass produced PCs yet somewhat because there aren't the suppliers to make things easier.
This is changing fast.
For example, SLAM has many things that work, but they require fine tuning, and most contain undocumented features that require reading the source to find. Slamcore is a company working on this, I hope there are more.
Teleportation was "possible but hard", but Freedom Robotics has a good solution now that mostly "just works"
Robotic bases work well, but they will ship them to you without things plugged in so you have to find the issue and fix it yourself. AWS Deepracer is clearly a prototype for a solid wheeled base. The documentation and build quality is an order of magnitude higher than anything else in the space. My guess is they launch it as a useful base in the next year or so.
Depth estimation is pretty good with Intel Realsense now, and the new OpenCV OAK is another attempt here. I think this is more solved and packaged than anything else.
ROS2 was only properly released in June 2020, and it is a huge step up from ROS1 for commercial applications. It probably needs another 1-2 years for the community to finalize supporting it.
I think for founders finding known robotic solutions and making them into robust commercial products is a great space to work in.
The next few years are very interesting in this space, as even 1 year ago everything was much harder and it's rapidly getting easier.
Re: Open Problems in Robotics
#127Earlier quoted context omitted.
What do you think the error bounds are for a human? I know it sounds like a flippant question, but for certain applications, if we can get a model that's better than human, then it doesn't need to be perfect. And they way we currently do this in all sorts of ways is to pair a human with a computer so that they each do what they're best at. It doesn't have to be about full automation.
Human is like your ancient software that was here since forever and somewhat worked fine. So everyone is used to it. (the difference from an actual software is that humans are based on some crazy nanotech from the future that nobody can completely control)
Excellent summary :D
Re: Open Problems in Robotics
#128Without further ado, a very incomplete list of hardware and electrical innovations that would push robotics forward.
- Cheaper and smaller low-backlash actuators. Motors and associated gearboxes are big, heavy, and expensive, which is a big part of why our robots have singularities in their designs, making the motion planning problem more difficult.
- Actuators with good force-speed curves. Muscles have both great torque at zero speed and great speed at zero torque. (weight lifting and throwing a baseball). Only hydraulics come close to matching both numbers, and they're heavy, expensive, and tend to leak oil on the carpet.
- Cheaper force/torque sensors. Most robots today don't even have torque sensing on all their actuators, let alone the sort of dense 6dof-sensing full-body surfaces that animal skin provides.
- Across-the-board robustness improvements. Robots more mechanically complicated than a quadcopter tend to break a lot. This makes approaches like training ML models directly on hardware difficult.
- Reliably low-latency wireless. There's been a lot of hype about cloud robotics, and there's a lot of potential in offboard sensing, but we need a cheap communication system that can deliver - Cheap and light lidars: true depth sensing with long range that works outside means a lot of hard computer vision problems get easier, and means your robot can be smaller since it needs fewer cameras
The thing I love about working in robotics is that we don't need to solve all the software problems and all the hardware problems to make a system that works well in the real world. We get to pick and choose which is easier, and often the solutions in software space depend intimately on the kind of substrate they need to run on.
Re: Open Problems in Robotics
#129Robotics founder here. Popular conceptions of "robots" are unrealistically general. In industry, we do not build robots, we build automation systems. Given the choice, would you prefer an automation system with some environmental assumptions, high speed and perfect repeatability (ie. entire industrial automation world), or no environmental assumptions, crushingly high cost, slow speed and poor reliability (eg. walkin…
The distinction between "machine" and "robot" is interesting. A traditional tractor is not a robot, but a driverless tractor is?
Re: Open Problems in Robotics
#130I work in robotics. The problem for pretty much everything is one of scale and commercialization. Every one of these issues has been addressed, but almost none have a good and bundled solution. It feels like computers in the 70s. All the pieces are there but there aren't mass produced PCs yet somewhat because there aren't the suppliers to make things easier. This is changing fast. For example, SLAM has many things th…
For somebody not in robotics, what does "teleportation" mean in this context. I assume that it doesn't mean the Star Trek style beaming that comes up from a Google search.