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Modeling a Wealth Tax

paulgraham.com

871–880 of 1001 posts

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#871

This is so simplistic. Favorably simplistic. Think about it this way, in a very similar, live example: It is common practice to pay a fee of 0.5-2% to a wealth manager. In practice for many people this fee is worthwhile and wonderful - the benefit is a safely managed and vigorously growing pool of assets. Is a wealth tax as described by the author really so different? In one case you pay a fee to the manager, in the…

I can easily fire my asset manager, or switch to a plethora of low cost options, or manage my capital myself. How exactly will I have those options with the wealth tax if you like you said, I’m not getting that rate of return justifying the tax?

You won't. Sorry, but people shouldn't be able to just fire their entire society as they would a wealth manager.

On second thought, I suppose you could vote or otherwise participate in politics.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#872
post #704

This is simplistic to the point of absurdity, and doesn't model how any sensible wealth tax would be implemented or paid. First, any wealth tax being seriously discussed has a floor and/or has marginal rates, probably starting at 1 or 5 or 10 million (or higher). Second, taxes don't disappear into nothingness - they pay for civilization. It is clearly beneficial to everyone to live in a society where people are well…

There's a lot of assumptions in there that the economy is rapidly proving wrong right now. Wealth doesn't grow for everyone - and an income tax is more fair because people whose wealth is going up pay more than people whose wealth is going down. We live in a world where remote work is rapidly becoming not just acceptable, but standard. Post-coronavirus geographic mobility will be high. Look, we already have a wealth…

There are a lot of weird incongruities in what you're saying here. First, how is an income tax more fair than a wealth tax? There is no guarantee at all that "people whose wealth is going up pay more than people whose wealth is going down.", let alone that the relative amounts of those items are fair. Additionally, wealth often accumulates via tax-advantaged vehicles that lower income individuals simply don't have access to.

Next, are you really implying that people will magically move to another country entirely because they can work remotely? The portion of workers who are even able to do such a thing, let alone likely to, is vanishingly small for many reasons (including, interestingly, income taxes).

And to your third point... again, you seem to not be aware of how estate planning works specifically to avoid paying taxes via things like trusts and inheriting shares in companies. Fixing inheritance taxation wouldn't come even close to being as effective as a wealth tax in preventing long-term accumulation of wealth with little economic input.

Here's where we're at: we have been trying income tax and the rich keep getting richer. Demonstrably and repeatedly. It isn't working, unless your definition of "working" is robber-baron era levels of economic disparity in America. If your proposed solution is variants of income taxes, well then you know the saying "define insanity". Wealth taxation is the only plan I've seen that logically prevents workarounds and actually serves to balance economic outcomes for Americans in the long term.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#873

I would much prefer a 'cash on hand' tax that would tax yearly the cash on hand that exceeds $1B. That private companies can just sit on all this capital rather than putting it to work in the economy is a real problem. It harms GDP and it harms working class people. By some estimates its $325B[1]. If we forced companies to invest that cash in new ventures rather than sit on it, it would be a win. [1] https://www.inve…

There's always an analogue to hide the cash though. Rare metals are a good example of an investment that's useless to society.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#874

After being one of the top-rated commenters on HN for some years, I have not commented in a long while. For what it is worth, here is my two cents on a topic - a wealth tax - that may seem on the surface to be benign but that is in fact just the opposite. Silicon Valley was founded in a spirit of freedom and flexibility but that spirit is clearly and dangerously on the wane insofar as the political environment surrou…

Inequality in your country has risen dramatically the past 30 years. That's what your legislators are trying to address. A lot of value is created in the early stages. Should that be exempt? Remember, companies don't exist primarily to pay back investors, their first objective is to contribute to society. My €0.05

> Inequality in your country has risen dramatically the past 30 years.

Why should I or anyone care?

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#875
post #863

This is so simplistic. Favorably simplistic. Think about it this way, in a very similar, live example: It is common practice to pay a fee of 0.5-2% to a wealth manager. In practice for many people this fee is worthwhile and wonderful - the benefit is a safely managed and vigorously growing pool of assets. Is a wealth tax as described by the author really so different? In one case you pay a fee to the manager, in the…

> It is common practice to pay a fee of 0.5-2% to a wealth manager. In practice for many people this fee is worthwhile and wonderful - the benefit is a safely managed and vigorously growing pool of assets. You pay that fee because the manager supposedly does something that helps your wealth grow faster than their fee. When Vanguard comes along and shows you can get the same or even better returns with a 0.04% fee ins…

Because society helps you grow your wealth faster. Better trained workers, happy and healthy workers, a functional medical system.

These are things that help your business create more wealth. As the grandfather comment said, it's wanting the 30c bonus without paying the 20c fee.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#876
post #704

This is simplistic to the point of absurdity, and doesn't model how any sensible wealth tax would be implemented or paid. First, any wealth tax being seriously discussed has a floor and/or has marginal rates, probably starting at 1 or 5 or 10 million (or higher). Second, taxes don't disappear into nothingness - they pay for civilization. It is clearly beneficial to everyone to live in a society where people are well…

There's a lot of assumptions in there that the economy is rapidly proving wrong right now. Wealth doesn't grow for everyone - and an income tax is more fair because people whose wealth is going up pay more than people whose wealth is going down. We live in a world where remote work is rapidly becoming not just acceptable, but standard. Post-coronavirus geographic mobility will be high. Look, we already have a wealth…

> How about we just enforce inheritance taxes and call it done?

How about we just enforce an inheritance tax in your family alone, and donate everything you have to a local charity and see if it makes a difference in your community? Your goal is to give away your wealth, as far as your comment goes, so it sounds like a legit plan of action. Just don't impose the same goal on everyone else.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#877
post #704

This is simplistic to the point of absurdity, and doesn't model how any sensible wealth tax would be implemented or paid. First, any wealth tax being seriously discussed has a floor and/or has marginal rates, probably starting at 1 or 5 or 10 million (or higher). Second, taxes don't disappear into nothingness - they pay for civilization. It is clearly beneficial to everyone to live in a society where people are well…

> Fifth, the idea that people "will just move to another country" is very silly.

Definitely. After a certain point, increasing wealth isn't about wealth, it's about power. I would wager that most of the uber-wealthy would rather have slightly less power in a place that they want to have power in, rather than have marginally more power in a place that's not their home.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#878

Graham does the classic magician's trick of showing you something shiny so you don't see what he's doing with his other hand. In this case, the shiny is the scary 45% figure. What he draws your attention away from is the bizarre hypothetical: > Suppose you start a successful startup in your twenties, and then live for another 60 years. How much of your stock will a wealth tax consume? Who is this hypothetical 20 year…

This.

The author is playing the typical Rich man's game. Oh woe is me, look at these poor people who this tax will destroy!

The fact that so many people here are defending them, is maddening and disheartening. Arguing that anyone with a value of over 50mm can't pay a higher tax rate on those funds is disengenous at best.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#879
post #590
post #407

Note that the US already effectively has a wealth tax, because of how long-term capital gains tax is computed. Let's say you had $100M from a successful startup in the first dotcom bubble (2000-08-14). You sell all your stock (unrealistic, but ok), put it in VTSMX (33 -> 83), and you're up to $250M twenty years later. Then you sell it all. Nominally that's a 4.7% annual return, but there was also inflation: your $250…

Turning your argument upside down: What stops the govt from printing money to bring inflation to 2%, hence financing the budget by indirectly taking from everyone's savings?

This is something that some governments do, printing money to finance the government through seigniorage, but it tends to be the last resort of dictators and destroy the economy. Not an option anyone takes if they have anything better.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#880
post #704

This is simplistic to the point of absurdity, and doesn't model how any sensible wealth tax would be implemented or paid. First, any wealth tax being seriously discussed has a floor and/or has marginal rates, probably starting at 1 or 5 or 10 million (or higher). Second, taxes don't disappear into nothingness - they pay for civilization. It is clearly beneficial to everyone to live in a society where people are well…

The exasperated/condescending tone of your comment is really inappropriate, given the number of specious and economically fallacious arguments contained in it.

Let's go through each:

>>There's a reason failed states and unstable/developing countries generally aren't where people are looking to startup the next big tech company.

There's a negative correlation between government spending levels as a percentage of GDP, and economic growth rates. Your implication, that society is better off with high levels of taxation, is not supported by the science on the matter.

>>Third, any smart founder isn't going to just sell 1% of their stock every year and pay the wealth tax with that. They'll take dividends, or take out a loan against the value of the stock, or use some cash from other investments, or whatever, and maintain control of their company. Yes, over the long term they'll lose some wealth, but not necessarily control of their company, unless that's the decision they make.

Completely irrelevant to the point. The point is that you lose much of the wealth you would have otherwise gained, in the absence of the wealth tax. Whether that's because you have to pay out more dividends, that would otherwise have been reinvested, to transfer to the IRS, or take on loans, that have to be paid back with revenue that would have otherwise been reinvested, is incidental.

>>Fourth, this effectively ignores that wealth is a thing that grows and compounds. If your wealth is increasing at 4% a year (very attainable for the class of people a wealth tax would affect) a 1% wealth tax really doesn't have as big an impact on your long term wealth as this makes it seem.

Wrong. The losses also have to be compounded. That 1%, had it remained invested, would have grown at a compounding rate as well. So you lose the 1% and all compounded gains on it.

>>Fifth, the idea that people "will just move to another country" is very silly. If some people do leave, or start companies only in other jurisdictions, that just means there's a market opportunity for the many people who remain.

This is a misunderstanding of the factors behind an investment. Investment does not automatically emerge to fill every market opportunity. It emerges when the ROI on potential investments meets the demands of the available investable financial capital. Investment decreases when the expected ROI decreases, and when the available investable financial capital decreases. A wealth tax decreases both the expected ROI, and the available investable financial capital.

Moreover, you're completley ignoring competitiveness. Firms in low tax tax jurisdictions will outcompete firms in high tax ones, ceteris paribus. Opportunities are not distributed across the world evenly, and one factor that affects opportunity is tax rates.

>>I'd much rather we have well funded schools and welfare for those who need it.

Government spending as a percentage of GDP has increased from 25% in the 1950s to 40% today. Social welfare spending increased by an average of 4.8%, EVERY YEAR, between 1972 and 2010.

How much more do you think government spending should increase? What share of private economic output should be non-consensually redistributed for social welfare programs in your mind? Will there ever reach a stage where you think the negative effects on capital formation, from further tax hikes, will outweigh the positive effects of a greater share of economic output being available to the poor in the form of cash payments and social services?

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