Live data from Hacker News

Modeling a Wealth Tax

paulgraham.com

761–770 of 1001 posts

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#761

After being one of the top-rated commenters on HN for some years, I have not commented in a long while. For what it is worth, here is my two cents on a topic - a wealth tax - that may seem on the surface to be benign but that is in fact just the opposite. Silicon Valley was founded in a spirit of freedom and flexibility but that spirit is clearly and dangerously on the wane insofar as the political environment surrou…

4 - Spain, Norway, Switzerland, and Belgium. I don't think it has stopped very wealthy people living in Switzerland or Norway in particular - but also I'm not sure how significant revenue it raises for the state. I think it's becoming quite clear though that we need some more taxation on capital, particularly the rent-seeking kind, and more levelling of the playing field particularly in the field of education, which…

Switzerland has a wealth tax, but it offers an interesting option for wealthy people - lump-sum taxation based on cost of living rather than wealth and income: https://home.kpmg/ch/en/blogs/home/posts/2020/04/lump-sum-ta...

So, their wealth tax is just for their "normal" earners. Don't glorify it or ignorantly use it as an argument.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#762

After being one of the top-rated commenters on HN for some years, I have not commented in a long while. For what it is worth, here is my two cents on a topic - a wealth tax - that may seem on the surface to be benign but that is in fact just the opposite. Silicon Valley was founded in a spirit of freedom and flexibility but that spirit is clearly and dangerously on the wane insofar as the political environment surrou…

I think you are forgetting the major difference between now and 70s - massive wealth concentration, and the complete destruction of sustainable middle class jobs. Look at the pandemic. 40 mn people were unemployed, but billionaire wealth continued to grow. Most people in the US are one paycheck away from bankruptcy. Poverty rates among minority population have soared, and the impact is starkly reflected in COVID related death rates. One can sit in an ivory tower and deflect all societies problems to be taken care of by some mythical concept of freedom. But more and more people are questioning why wealth in the US is not trickling down. And these are very valid questions today that should really span beyond political lines

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#763

Perhaps notable: Switzerland has a wealth tax (of up to 0.3%), and there is zero evidence that this has any deterrent effect on wealthy people settling in Switzerland or startups being created in Switzerland. Other features of the tax system more than offset the 0.3% wealth tax. Personally, I am a bit disappointed by the lack of depth of the discourse: Wealth taxes and their effect have been studied quite a bit in ec…

Switzerland offers lump-sum taxation for wealthy people: https://home.kpmg/ch/en/blogs/home/posts/2020/04/lump-sum-ta...

So it's not 0.3%, but a mostly constant yearly amount that may be much lower.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#764
post #726

I would much prefer a 'cash on hand' tax that would tax yearly the cash on hand that exceeds $1B. That private companies can just sit on all this capital rather than putting it to work in the economy is a real problem. It harms GDP and it harms working class people. By some estimates its $325B[1]. If we forced companies to invest that cash in new ventures rather than sit on it, it would be a win. [1] https://www.inve…

You can deduce that cash on hand harms nobody by doing a thought experiment. If there were a company sitting on $100 trillion in cash - enough to make everyone else's money just a small fraction of the total - how would that hurt anybody? It wouldn't. Idle cash harms no one. You could make the argument that the cash has the potential to be spent in large influential harmful ways, like on elections or something, but t…

I appreciate where you are coming from, but I expect we have very different ideas on what "capital" is versus "money."

You have focused on the "money" aspect, as a thought experiment on how money isn't a good way to think about it, consider a decision one day to devalue the US dollar a trillion to 1. Now everyone who had at least one dollar has a trillion dollars! We are all trillionaires!

But it doesn't help anyone because McDonalds now sells the trillion dollar "value" meal menu.

Capital on the other hand, is the fuel for gross domestic product or GDP. GDP is a measure of the economic "work" done by an economy.

The only way to inject capital into an economy is to buy goods and services. The buying of goods and services leads to the production of new goods and new services which leads to more buying of more goods and more services.

Let's use a concrete example. Let's say you are sitting on $2 million dollars in your cash and cash equivalents fund. That $2 million is either sitting their getting maybe a 2% return by "investing" it in safe instruments that can be immediately turned back into cash on short notice if needed. There a relatively small number of financial options that meet that standard, typically depository accounts, US treasury bills (bonds), and other low risk bonds with high liquidity (aka easy to sell on a moments notice).

Now lets say I tell you, "invest it or I'll take it in taxes." So you take your $2 million, and you lease a corner lot on some business district and you build on it a convenience store and a gas station. You hire a manager and maybe an assistant manager for the store and a couple of cashiers. You buy stock for the store from a local distributor, you buy gas from a nearby refinery.

Your $2 million is still earning a return, you've created a business that has annual sales and generates income. At the same time you have created 4 jobs (2 part time and 2 full time), you've added "stops" for gas delivery and products delivery so you're supporting some fraction of that delivery person's job, you are moving products through the market so you have helped pay for some refinery worker jobs and those who are packaging up products, you might have milk and eggs in your store so a farm somewhere is selling more product than it was before, and you are generating sales tax revenue which is going into the local municipalities funds for the services they provide. Double win if you build your station on what had previously been an empty lot.

So "holding" that $2 million in your cash or cash equivalents fund prevents that capital from contributing to the GDP of your local economic zone.

Is it harder to get your $2 million back on short notice? Sure. Is it possible that through a series of unfortunate events that $2 million could become worth less, possibly much less, than $2 million? Yup, that is a risk too. But did it help the economy and thus the country? Yes it did.

I'm not against companies holding money for a rainy day, hence my suggestion that it start at holdings over a billion dollars. A billion dollars can get you out of a lot of scrapes. And it isn't like the tax would be huge and drain you of those excess holdings overnight. Look at Paul's essay to see that over 30 - 60 years you would see significant impact, over a year or two? Hardly a blip.

What it does is it encourages companies, especially tech companies that generate huge amounts of cash, to keep that cash circulating in the economy rather than sit on it. You could even throw in a bone and say "no taxes on any money you want to bring back into the country from over seas because we're going to tax it no matter where it is stored."

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#765
post #704

This is simplistic to the point of absurdity, and doesn't model how any sensible wealth tax would be implemented or paid. First, any wealth tax being seriously discussed has a floor and/or has marginal rates, probably starting at 1 or 5 or 10 million (or higher). Second, taxes don't disappear into nothingness - they pay for civilization. It is clearly beneficial to everyone to live in a society where people are well…

>First, any wealth tax being seriously discussed has a floor and/or has marginal rates, probably starting at 1 or 5 or 10 million (or higher). Uh huh. >Second, taxes don't disappear into nothingness - they pay for civilization. But there are bad taxes. There is such a thing as too much tax. So you have to justify the wealth tax on its own merits instead of trying to pull a motte-and-bailey fallacy by pushing a wealth…

>>Second, taxes don't disappear into nothingness - they pay for civilization. >But there are bad taxes. There is such a thing as too much tax. So you have to justify the wealth tax on its own merits instead of trying to pull a motte-and-bailey fallacy by pushing a wealth tax and then arguing for the necessity of taxes when challenged. Taxes are a necessary part of a functioning modern economy. Wealth tax is not.

Indeed. The parent is arguing that the wealth tax is better than, say, a carbon tax, which is considered a fairly efficient form of taxation.

> >I suspect that Mr. Graham is wringing his hands over potentially having to cut a large (in absolute terms, but small in relative ones) cheque to the government in the future, >No. That is a strawman if I ever see one. Could Mr. Graham not be against this tax because it's an objectively bad tax with many unintended consequences?

To add to this, Paul Graham doesn’t live in California, and would not pay the tax. He’s opposed on principle.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#766
post #704

This is simplistic to the point of absurdity, and doesn't model how any sensible wealth tax would be implemented or paid. First, any wealth tax being seriously discussed has a floor and/or has marginal rates, probably starting at 1 or 5 or 10 million (or higher). Second, taxes don't disappear into nothingness - they pay for civilization. It is clearly beneficial to everyone to live in a society where people are well…

>First, any wealth tax being seriously discussed has a floor and/or has marginal rates, probably starting at 1 or 5 or 10 million (or higher). Uh huh. >Second, taxes don't disappear into nothingness - they pay for civilization. But there are bad taxes. There is such a thing as too much tax. So you have to justify the wealth tax on its own merits instead of trying to pull a motte-and-bailey fallacy by pushing a wealth…

PG is tone deaf and missing the mood of the nation here.

He says:

> Even a .5% wealth tax would start to keep founders away from a state or country that imposed it.

Mr Graham doesn't consider the possibility of startup founders leaving / kept away from a place that doesn't impose a wealth tax. I am not a successful startup founder (yet), but I would consider it my duty to live in /start a company in a place with better laws and taxes that are more equitable for everyone.

Money is not the only thing that drives startup founders to do big things. Complaining about a wealth tax and suggesting it will ruin things in the valley / CA due to people leaving completely ignores the societal improvements that could come from those tax dollars.

The idea behind increasing taxes on the wealthy is to build a better society for everyone - including the wealthy! Why would the future prospective wealthy startup founders want to live in a massively unequal society, that is bent on increasing incoming inequality (the topic of another recent PG essay, where he argues that decreasing wealth inequality is a bad idea)? I sure wouldn't.

Mr Graham, a lot of startup founders may leave if large measures to improve society like a wealth tax are not 'imposed'.

You said,

> Taxes are a necessary part of a functioning modern economy. Wealth tax is not.

But you don't back this up. Why should wealth tax not be a part of modern economy? Modern economies are broken right now, obviously, for most people anyway, so keeping the status quo is a red flag and a bad sign.

> Could Mr. Graham not be against this tax because it's an objectively bad tax with many unintended consequences?

If that is his position, he does not explain it very well. Especially with the context of many of his recent essays, he does seem especially concerned with his image and wealth.

What about the unintended consequences of adopting policies that specifically intend to increase wealth inequality? PG doesn't seem to much consider the consequences that his models/opinions/plans would have on other people if implemented.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#767

This is not modelling a wealth tax. This is disingenuous whining because it fails to take into account that wealth taxes kick in at the point that where people have become wealthy. Lets say it kicks in at 100 million. So you still get to keep 100 million before you pay any tax on that wealth? Or in other words you still get to be incredibly, obscenely wealthy, you just reduce the chance to become wealthy beyond the d…

Your right, once this type of tax gets implemented it sure is easy to lower/justify the threshold and change the very nature of our economy.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#768

I would much prefer a 'cash on hand' tax that would tax yearly the cash on hand that exceeds $1B. That private companies can just sit on all this capital rather than putting it to work in the economy is a real problem. It harms GDP and it harms working class people. By some estimates its $325B[1]. If we forced companies to invest that cash in new ventures rather than sit on it, it would be a win. [1] https://www.inve…

Are you sure it's really a bad thing for a company to keep cash on hand? The airlines this year were bailed out because they chose not to keep cash on hand, and then they suddenly lost most of their revenue. So maybe it's actually a good thing for companies to keep some savings available, so inefficient bailouts aren't necessary.

No it isn't a bad thing to set aside cash for future risk. I'm saying that a limit could be established on how much is too much. And then tax just the too much part.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#769

I would much prefer a 'cash on hand' tax that would tax yearly the cash on hand that exceeds $1B. That private companies can just sit on all this capital rather than putting it to work in the economy is a real problem. It harms GDP and it harms working class people. By some estimates its $325B[1]. If we forced companies to invest that cash in new ventures rather than sit on it, it would be a win. [1] https://www.inve…

How would you overcome loopholes like the $1 Trillion+ that Apple stores in the Channel islands after funneling it through Ireland and the Netherlands?

In my very limited, layperson understanding, all of these fancy multi-country tax schemes involve separate corporate entities in each country which then engage in some set of fictitious transactions (e.g. IP licensing fees) to move money between countries.

Also in my pedestrian understanding, around taxes on the value of some hard-to-valuate asset, one mechanism for encouraging owners to be honest in their valuations, rather than under-valuing everything, is that some party (perhaps the government) should have the option to purchase some property at the value claimed by the owner. "You say this trove of old master artwork is only worth $100k? I'll take it!"

Is there a reasonable form of this for the colluding branches of multi-nationals? "You've claimed your subsidiary in our country has had $0 net revenue every year for the past 10 years b/c it spends absolutely every available dollar on IP owned by the sister company across the pond? Then since we agree your subsidiary is really clearly struggling, I will buy it for the value of its local real-estate portfolio, plus a small markup."

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#770
post #755

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Fifth, the idea that people "will just move to another country" is very silly. If some people do leave, or start companies only in other jurisdictions, that just means there's a market opportunity for the many people who remain. You're just name-calling here, it's not "silly" just because you don't like the fact. If they leave, they actually leave, period. Sweden's left-wing majority abolished the inheritance tax(!…

I'm not saying that people won't leave, I'm sure some will. I'm saying worrying about some people leaving is silly. What disaster befell Sweden because the IKEA founder left?

> What disaster befell Sweden because the IKEA founder left?

It's not hard to figure out if you try to think about it in a curious, scientific manner instead of through your ideological glasses. Many wealthy people left and Sweden lost tax income, investments and angered people. To the point where the left-wing parties realized how bad an idea it was.

https://iea.org.uk/blog/how-high-tax-sweden-abolished-its-di...

Post reply on HN