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Modeling a Wealth Tax

paulgraham.com

641–650 of 1001 posts

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#641
post #9

Someone forgot to model growth in the value of the asset, and/or putting the wealth to use. A wealth tax is, to an approximation, the equivalent of the "management fee" that an ETF charges, but with the revenues going to the government. If you have a bucket of money that isn't doing anything, then what value does it actually bring to the economy? Penalizing static value seems almost reasonable.

> Someone forgot to model growth in the value of the asset, and/or putting the wealth to use. It's surprisingly not different. If you have an asset that is dormant, is $100, and you tax it with 1% for 20 years, you get to $81.79 by calculating 100 0.99^20. Now suppose instead, your asset grows by 10% a year, and you have no tax. That asset grows to 100 1.10^20 = $672 Now suppose that prior to the investment each year…

You're gussying up a "silicon valley" libertarian viewpoint in "philosophy of taxation."

> When you just store, you don't benefit, and taking it is a purely negative experience. Many people are willing to share part of their new earnings. Few are willing to give up something that has always belonged to them.

That's a real stretch when just a sentence earlier you talked about earned benefits and taxation of those benefits. Storage is just the accumulation of earned benefits beyond your spending habits. Value isn't created in a vacuum nor is it used in one. And current taxation doesn't preclude future taxation, it's why us common folk are told to do any of our retirement funding that we can as pre-tax, since who's to say something that is taxed today (and is expressly stated as not being taxable in the future) won't be taxed again later on appreciated or total value. So, by this alone, the government saying taxes now, and deferred taxes later if that valuation meets certain thresholds isn't something that the government can't or even shouldn't do.

And, in many cases, the tax wouldn't apply to startups or their founders unless they're already sitting on multiple tens of millions of static personal valuation; which is where this whole argument really breaks down, and shows its disingenuous colors. When someone like PG talks about these wealth tax valuations in general terms of percentages, many of us are still thinking on OUR terms, which means we're thinking on "normie" scales of 10s or 100s of thousands, or maybe a couple million, where a 1% drop in valuation YoY would make a significant dent in what we can and can't do; when a wealth tax is floated (at least in the US) it's looking at $10M+ in static assets at the individual level, and applies to a wealth class that only a small percentage of people can actually comprehend. And, when a wealth tax is floated in the US, it also has discussions around non-realized asset valuation (such as small businesses, start-ups, etc) and what classes of assets contribute to the total value of an individual wealth tax.

Applying a wealth tax in a general way like how PG has done it is a bit disingenuous, not wrong; but is prone to personal wealth view biases. It becomes even more obvious when we take your example and put it towards something that would actually be taxed... $100M; which you end up with $81M for static assets or $550M instead of $672M in PERSONAL assets. Most only think of numbers in these terms if the "win the lottery" so who in the general public thinks the difference of $122M over a lifetime of nearly 3/4 of a billion dollars in wealth (not earnings, but accumulated valuation) isn't a bit of a "whatever," they'll pay more in taxes on that Mega Millions winner and won't bat an eye. (this also works for the usual lower bound as well, $10M, but $100M is guaranteed to be included in any of the recently floated wealth taxes).

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#642

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The first thing to notice about a wealth tax is how little it fundamentally differs from an income tax on investment income. If you have a billion dollars and you get a 2% return and pay 15% capital gains tax, you paid 0.3% of your wealth in tax. So then what's the difference? For one, it pushes people towards riskier investments. At a 1% annual return, a 0.3% wealth tax is equivalent to a 30% income tax. At a 5% ann…

> you own 51% of your company but over time you're forced to become a minority shareholder just in order to pay the tax, or you owned 100% of it and are required to take on external investment over time just to stay in business Doesn't this assume the owner receives no other income? I assume owners either receive a salary from the company, or are paid a dividend with which they could use to pay the monetary-valued ta…

> Doesn't this assume the owner receives no other income? I assume owners either receive a salary from the company, or are paid a dividend with which they could use to pay the monetary-valued tax.

Not always. To use the extremely adversarial example, Bezos' annual salary is (famously) $82,000, and Amazon pays no dividends because our tax code incentivizes re-investing surplus into R&D rather than enriching shareholders.

The wealth tax, as a result, adds the incentive to increase shareholder dividends and/or inflate executive compensation just for them to be able to maintain ownership in their own companies.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#643
post #202

Unpopular opinion: Near 50% of American pay ZERO tax whatsoever. The top 10% of all Americans pay 69% of all taxes currently. This is a point 'left out' of current discussions. How about instead of increasing entitlements and stealing more from people that created wealth - we lower the size of the government spending UNTIL it matches where most people pay for the services received in a more scaled manner. https://tax…

This is just a political distorted stats view of the reality. It doesn’t help encourage discussion. You very well know that the wealthy pay a larger share because they own the larger share of the wealth. The 50% pay zero as you claim because those poor suckers don’t even own enough to qualify for the tax bracket.

It is not a political view of reality - it is an argument against the current reality. I'm suggesting subtly that we tax the person, not the wealth. That is only accomplished in one of two ways: Tax everyone the same, a high amount due to a costly government. Or lower the overhead cost of government and services until everyone can pay equally - as I believe it should be.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#644

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The first thing to notice about a wealth tax is how little it fundamentally differs from an income tax on investment income. If you have a billion dollars and you get a 2% return and pay 15% capital gains tax, you paid 0.3% of your wealth in tax. So then what's the difference? For one, it pushes people towards riskier investments. At a 1% annual return, a 0.3% wealth tax is equivalent to a 30% income tax. At a 5% ann…

It seems like, if you wanted to help stop the wealthy from ducking paying taxes, one should just stop providing a special long term capitol gains tax and tax capitol gains the same as income. It simplifies the tax code, stops punishing workers who receive a wage over those who earn investment income, and doesn't require a bunch of new accounting to implement. My cynicism hat tells me the reason it isn't the policy go…

The reason why long term capital gains tax is taxed at a lower rate is to index for inflation. Inflation on short term income is negligible. As a matter of tax policy, it is much simpler to reduce the rate than to compute a very large inflation deduction.

> the wealth tax likely never will.

It also requires a Constitutional amendment, because the Constitution only allows the Federal government to levy taxes on realized income (16th Amendment).

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#645

Perhaps notable: Switzerland has a wealth tax (of up to 0.3%), and there is zero evidence that this has any deterrent effect on wealthy people settling in Switzerland or startups being created in Switzerland. Other features of the tax system more than offset the 0.3% wealth tax. Personally, I am a bit disappointed by the lack of depth of the discourse: Wealth taxes and their effect have been studied quite a bit in ec…

Another question I would like to see discussed w.r.t. Switzerland is whether they are, in crude terms, dependent on other countries not being stable.

An example would be the South African originated company Compagnie Financière Richemont SA. Apart from economy of scale reasons, the reason why they moved to Switzerland is absolutely the stability of that country. South African citizens, many pensioners, now pay tax in Switzerland on dividends. (Yes, you have a DT treaty that allows you to go from 35% dividends tax to 15%, but still paid in Switzerland. And yes, probably they spend tax money much better than the SA government.)

LVMH by contrast doesn't have to move around, but in theory could have moved to Switzerland if it were the only stable country around.

So, to be Devil's advocate, is Switzerland a well performing country when considered critically or do they get a lot of money that in practical terms is or was historically generated in other geographic areas?

Conversely, if you don't have any stable countries at all, and you're left only with an option like South Africa, then there are countless examples of companies that simply could not survive. By the way, South Africa's taxes are getting quite high and there is absolutely no correlation between tax rates and service delivery. My personal opinion is somewhat more focused on practical terms. My first question about a country is not about taxes, but about the poverty line and buying power; and then about environmental issues. South African's don't have much hope for governments making any kind of sensible decisions.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#646
post #280

Let's look at what a 1% US wealth tax would mean for Jeff Bezos. He founded Amazon 26 years ago. A 1% wealth tax means he keeps 99% of Amazon stock each year. .99^26 = .77 = 77% So he'd currently be worth $145B instead of $188B. PG is saying Bezos would have left the US because of that? Edit after twitter conversation with PG: He doesn't believe Bezos would have not started Amazon in the US if there was a wealth tax.…

> So he'd currently be worth $145B instead of $188B. > PG is saying Bezos would have left the US because of that? I think most human beings would do most things for $43,000,000,000. Whether they morally ought to or not is beside the point: almost anyone would do almost anything for 43 billion dollars.

The marginal value of that money, in terms of lifestyle changes, when you already have $145B is much less than $43 billion. Probably closer to 0.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#647
post #631

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, I've always thought these sorts of "Atlas Shrugged" arguments were ironic coming from free-market thinkers. In a free market, if one person refuses to work for less than $100 million, there's always someone right behind them willing to work for $99M. It would take a pretty extraordinary tax to have any effect on motivation in the economy at large.

It's not quite so black-and-white; wealth taxes change the incentive structure, so that the returns to creating increasingly valuable companies is non-linear. Wealth taxes (especially those with 'floors') discourage risky, high potential ventures, thereby skewing entrepreneurship towards smaller, less risky projects. I personally think there are too few of the big, risky ventures these days, and too many low value-at…

> discourage risky, high potential ventures, thereby skewing entrepreneurship towards smaller, less risky projects.

That's a good thing, and I disagree completely with your assertion that "there are too few of the big, risky ventures". My impression is just the opposite: there are too many stable companies with modest success that are being killed by VCs who insist they have to adopt go chasing mega-growth that has no chance of actually materializing. Dropbox, Kickstarter, and Patreon are a few prominent examples of this trend: they achieved success in the marketplace and could've been happy with that, but their backers would rather take a 1% shot at meteoric mega-growth, and so now the products increasingly suck while the companies hopelessly go after initiatives way outside their core competency until their loyal customers get sick of it and leave, the company crashes and burns, and the VCs write it off as just another failure.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#649

Perhaps notable: Switzerland has a wealth tax (of up to 0.3%), and there is zero evidence that this has any deterrent effect on wealthy people settling in Switzerland or startups being created in Switzerland. Other features of the tax system more than offset the 0.3% wealth tax. Personally, I am a bit disappointed by the lack of depth of the discourse: Wealth taxes and their effect have been studied quite a bit in ec…

You are right that the discourse is not nuanced, but it highlights a very basic problem with taxing an asset again and again, especially on unrealized gains. We gladly support this idea, because it affects "the billionaires" but not when it comes to everyone else and for good reason. Repeated taxation on an asset can erode your wealth really quickly. Here in California, your house gets taxed on the purchase price, bu…

Economists actually love recurring land value taxes because they're non-distortionary, but almost all land value tax proposals exclude primary residences under a certain value, for the reasons you've described.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#650
post #625
post #326

Isn't this model is ignoring the fact that the proposed wealth tax plans are _marginal_ rates? Take Sanders' plan [1] for instance: * 1% annual tax on net worth above $32M * 2% above $50M * 3% above $250M * 4% above $500M * 5% above $1B Also note that based on those numbers this tax would impact the wealthiest 180,000 households in the US (out of 129M, which is roughly the top 0.1%). Warren's plan [2] is less aggress…

You’re forgetting inflation and income taxes! If I had a $1b I would have to earn 5% + 2-3% a year just to break even - but if some portion of that 7-8% was income/capital gains than I would have to earn even more... and that’s before I put fuel in my jet or feed my thoroughbreds...

> You’re forgetting inflation and income taxes!

No, I'm "modelling" the wealth tax with the exact same assumptions as pg, save that I'm using a plan that was actually proposed as opposed to a "take 1% of everyone's wealth every year" strawman.

Also, this statement:

> I would have to earn 5% + 2-3% a year just to break even

only applies to your wealth in excess of $1,000,000,000.

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