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Modeling a Wealth Tax

paulgraham.com

631–640 of 1001 posts

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#631

I'm highly skeptical of the claim that such tax would discourage startup founders. Wealth tax proposals I've seen don't kick in until $50 million or $100 million. This means that there is a floor on how "poor" the government can make you via a wealth tax. This has two implications: 1. Most "successful" startup founders don't break that threshold of personal wealth. 2. For most startup founders, the startup is the onl…

Agreed, I've always thought these sorts of "Atlas Shrugged" arguments were ironic coming from free-market thinkers. In a free market, if one person refuses to work for less than $100 million, there's always someone right behind them willing to work for $99M. It would take a pretty extraordinary tax to have any effect on motivation in the economy at large.

It's not quite so black-and-white; wealth taxes change the incentive structure, so that the returns to creating increasingly valuable companies is non-linear. Wealth taxes (especially those with 'floors') discourage risky, high potential ventures, thereby skewing entrepreneurship towards smaller, less risky projects.

I personally think there are too few of the big, risky ventures these days, and too many low value-at-risk software-only startups (aiming to be bought up by a FAANG), but that is just an opinion.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#632
This is the same kind of naive calculation that people used to say Donald Trump would have made more money investing in index funds - start with 100% of the principal and do nothing else with it. A big understated problem with a gradual wealth tax is billionaires will fund an overthrow of the government if it compounds aggressively enough.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#633

After being one of the top-rated commenters on HN for some years, I have not commented in a long while. For what it is worth, here is my two cents on a topic - a wealth tax - that may seem on the surface to be benign but that is in fact just the opposite. Silicon Valley was founded in a spirit of freedom and flexibility but that spirit is clearly and dangerously on the wane insofar as the political environment surrou…

This would’ve been a great opportunity to share your unique expertise on the history, efficacy, or real mechanisms of tax laws that us non-lawyers aren’t privy to. E.g. comparative analysis of property taxes, which are wealth taxes but limited to one asset class.

In retort, these companies are started by young risk takers, many of whom have a safety net. A set of redistributive policies could expand that volume to folks who are arbitrarily excluded.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#634
post #615

I think it sounds crazy the gov wants to tax people when earned but also tax their savings 1% yearly. There's debates that it's unconstitutional so that's why it hasn't happened due to the uncertainty. I think if a single state like New York did it instead of nationwide, then they'll drive just people away to states like Texas, Florida and Tennessee. Some finical companies have already left New York or downsides. Som…

Any interest or dividends get taxed. Quite significantly in fact and historically, over 1% of the real value of your portfolio.

This is only somewhat different than taxing wealth in effect. Right now we have a world, where lower interest rates = lower inflation produce a reduced "wealth tax"

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#635
The Upton Sinclair quote has seldom been more apt.

Assuming it could be effectively and efficiently administered, replacing all income taxes with a wealth tax (and VAT) would massively simplify the tax code while making it significantly more fair and heavily rewarding those actively generating the greatest returns.

Under such a scenario, the only people significantly negatively impacted would be those who hoard wealth or invest it poorly, and as a consequence are unable to overcome the periodic tax.

As to its fairness: when the wealthiest pool their resources in order to protect their assets’ value, as is the case in e.g. a hedge fund, we see them happily sign up to a 2% yearly levy.

A more elaborate metaphor makes situation more vivid still: imagine the scenario in which America’s wealthiest were to all move to a “Galt’s Island”, except in doing so they left the American security blanket and became entirely responsible for the defense of their assets. In such a scenario, the idea that the merely wealthy would pay the same as the hyperwealthy immediately stops making sense, as it’s the hyperwealthy who are both benefitting most from the security afforded, and the ones who are most responsible for Galt’s Island being so tempting a target.

America is Galt’s Island, except we have seen a systematic shifting of the burdens of its upkeep from those who can most easily afford it to those who can afford it least.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#636
Not sure if others have opinions, but I remember when Andrew Yang was campaigning he talked about going after individual's wealth as the incorrect strategy since their wealth lies in their companies e.g. Amazon... and that a better strategy would be to implement a 20% VAT tax so we're gaining value from every transaction of their businesses that's hard to game and quite effective.

A VAT has the advantage of being simple to administer, and it's capturing the gains made via automation at every step of the chain.

Sounds good if true, and I believe most other countries have figured this out and implemented one. We don't talk about it here though.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#637
As many have pointed out, this is a pretty shallow critique of a straw man wealth tax that nobody has actually proposed.

If you want a little more depth on taxation proposals, I’d recommend the Saez and Zucman book [1] that underpinned most of the candidates’ policies: The Triumph of Injustice. All tax policy, including wealth taxes (like property taxes in the US), involves decisions about redistribution. Optimal tax theory is about trying to maximize revenue which includes considering the impact on capital / income “giving up”.

[1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/45894166-the-triumph-of-...

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#638
Philosophically I love the idea of a wealth tax in a capitalist economy. The wealth tax is your cost of entry to the economy. The government takes that cut and corrects externalities and provides basic services.

Things like keeping your citizens alive with the military and healthcare. Educating them and building roads and basic infrastructure, etc. Providing basic income.

Whatever capital you hold (your wealth) is some part of the US economy that you are controlling and someone else isn't. If you can't add more than 1% per year in value then your money should be redistributed to others who can.

In my mind this kind of system turns us all into capitalists. It's much easier to bootstrap yourself with a McDonald's job because you'll almost certainly have no wealth. Everything you earn you keep. From there modest amounts of wealth are more than enough to beat the tax rate.

The case made in this article doesn't make a lot of sense to me. If you did something in your 20s why should you get to live off that 60 years later without doing something to maintain the value? You get a huge opportunity up front, continue with that contribution and you'll still be ahead.

How do these numbers compare to the 1/3 of my income I pay in taxes every year?

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#639
One question I have never heard a good answer to:

Wealth (standing still, unused) doesn't have an impact on anyone. The money doesn't go anywhere, influence anything. It's when money moves that affects people.

So why should people worry about taking wealth? Why not simply continue taxing the movement of money? When money is generated or transferred -- isn't that enough scope to achieve the desired outcomes of a wealth tax (which would otherwise be very difficult to implement)?

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#640
post #434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that a wealth tax of just 1% doesn't actually raise that much money, a proposed wealth tax of 2-3% (Warren) would be the highest in the world. If you have that kind of money, why would you not just take it elsewhere? Think about it, if that capital is actually creating returns to make up for the depreciation, it must be working capital . Removing it from the economy would be damaging. What if the money…

They'll have to renounce their US citizenship. And the wealth will get reinvested in wherever it produces the highest returns, like it already is right now.

> They'll have to renounce their US citizenship.

So what? US citizenship has the unique disadvantage of making you a subject to the IRS globally.

If the US imposed a wealth tax to the tune of 2-3%, you bet that many nice countries will be welcoming to all that capital in exchange for citizenship. Also consider that most Americans have some sort of heritage abroad.

> And the wealth will get reinvested in wherever it produces the highest returns, like it already is right now.

Sure, you can still invest into the US market after leaving the sinking ship. On the other hand, a little bit of traveling brings perspective, if you're now a citizen of some other country, why not also invest and build there?

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