Live data from Hacker News

Modeling a Wealth Tax

paulgraham.com

251–260 of 1001 posts

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#251
post #223
post #202

Unpopular opinion: Near 50% of American pay ZERO tax whatsoever. The top 10% of all Americans pay 69% of all taxes currently. This is a point 'left out' of current discussions. How about instead of increasing entitlements and stealing more from people that created wealth - we lower the size of the government spending UNTIL it matches where most people pay for the services received in a more scaled manner. https://tax…

The wealth tax is aimed at the billionaire class. That class paid less than the working class in taxes last year[1]. [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/10/08/first-tim...

As a rate - but not as what matters - actual money. I would expect wealthy to pay a smaller percentage. As an example - 1% of $1B = $10M. 30% of $40k = $12k.

They still pay more in actual dollars. Dollars are what people are after here.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#252

Perhaps notable: Switzerland has a wealth tax (of up to 0.3%), and there is zero evidence that this has any deterrent effect on wealthy people settling in Switzerland or startups being created in Switzerland. Other features of the tax system more than offset the 0.3% wealth tax. Personally, I am a bit disappointed by the lack of depth of the discourse: Wealth taxes and their effect have been studied quite a bit in ec…

You're cherry picking. France imposed a wealth tax and they repealed it. "At least 10,000 wealthy people left the country to avoid paying the tax; most moved to neighboring Belgium" https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-11-14/france...

Not to derail the topic but “taxing the rich” was one of the bullet points that was supposed to answer where the money for a UBI system would come from.

This is exactly how globalization will impact UBI as well, because at the end of the day the manufacturing firms, big corporations and everyone else who is vested in making money will uproot and go elsewhere, where they won’t be taxed so harshly.

And just to add, that France even tried to pull that stunt without asking “what happens when they all leave?” is just silly negligence. Of course these people are not dependent on any particular country - they’ve diversified their assets long ago.

Strikes me as incredibly narrow minded thinking at a country level. Unbelievable.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#253
Genuine question: If there was no wealth tax and your 100M remained as 100M till the end of your life (no money was spent either) - that is zero growth, wouldn't you say you have been a failure as a VC, Investor, or Startup founder?

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#255
post #9

Someone forgot to model growth in the value of the asset, and/or putting the wealth to use. A wealth tax is, to an approximation, the equivalent of the "management fee" that an ETF charges, but with the revenues going to the government. If you have a bucket of money that isn't doing anything, then what value does it actually bring to the economy? Penalizing static value seems almost reasonable.

> Someone forgot to model growth in the value of the asset, and/or putting the wealth to use.

It's surprisingly not different.

If you have an asset that is dormant, is $100, and you tax it with 1% for 20 years, you get to $81.79 by calculating 1000.99^20.

Now suppose instead, your asset grows by 10% a year, and you have no tax. That asset grows to 1001.10^20 = $672

Now suppose that prior to the investment each year you tax it with 1% and invest the rest, for 20 years, again at 10%. So you get 1000.99^201.10^20 = $550

That $550 of $672 is exactly the same portion as $81.79 is of $100. In other words, growth or no growth, it has exactly the same effect, either way a 1% tax over 20 years takes 18.2%.

> Penalizing static value seems almost reasonable.

In the philosophy of taxation there's a different approach. Money you own is money you earned. Typically earnings are taxed. You produce X value, and a small portion of X is allocated to a general pot of money to fund general things in society, e.g. infrastructure, rule of law etc. But after that, it's your money. If you then invest it and earn more, again, a portion of those earnings are taxed. But if you don't do anything with the money, for the government to take it, is seen as a form of theft.

The principle why the one form of appropriation is okay and the other isn't, is because when you earn, you benefit. And the government benefits, too. When you just store, you don't benefit, and taking it is a purely negative experience. Many people are willing to share part of their new earnings. Few are willing to give up something that has always belonged to them.

Inflation is a natural penalty on static value anyway. So are opportunity costs. Plus, actually static value is quite rare, money in a savings account is being put to work by the bank. The amount of really static money (like money under your mattress, or a permanently vacant home) is quite a small portion of the financial system and again being penalised by inflation and opportunity costs already.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#256

I don't support the wealth tax, but this is too simplistic coming from paul (probably meant to be, to hide the facts). The real picture is incorporating stock growth and probably calculating a $ amount. If you are a founder that made it, and your stock is growing and growing, you can easily take a loan and pay it without having to sacrifice the equity.

Also let's not forget 83B is a thing, and let's you opt in to practically having LTCG on grant price instead of vest price. If you have a vest schedule for founders, with this calculation, income tax is worse than the wealth tax, probably, under STCG.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#257

It makes it seem really bad when you say "Government takes". The truth is, you're contributing back to people and the system which let you make and run a business that makes millions starting in your 20s.

> It makes it seem really bad when you say "Government takes". Sure, but it's also perfectly accurate. > … you're contributing back … You contribute back by running the business successfully and providing things that people value. Any taxes you pay are above and beyond that. Society creates government, not the other way around, though the government loves to blur the line between itself and society and thus claim cre…

"Society creates government, not the other way around..."

And government supports and enriches society. It's symbiotic, not parasitic.

"claim credit for what people have created on their own"

Nobody creates anything on their own. Full stop. Every single citizen is supported by countless public infrastructure initiatives, from transportation to safety to education to etc etc, without which no significant achievement would be possible.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#258
tl;dr: compound interest works both ways

This is a shallow analysis. It doesn't anticipate any sort of growth in the value of the stock.

If you can't find a way to grow $50M at even 1% per year, I fear for your fiscal health.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#259
Boooooooo

This is just bad (bad == misleading) math. Where's the appreciation of the assets? Where's the real examples from other countries that have tried wealth taxes? I don't know what he's _trying_ to do, but the effect of his rhetoric certainly seems to me that "If you won the lottery, you this would be bad for you! [but if you don't, it'd be great for you, and really only bad for ultra-rich people like me]"

I'd love to see some real numbers on "how much paul graham would pay" vs "how much your average startup founder who fails a couple times and has a moderate success or two" would pay.

Also we're talking about "over 60 years" - this isn't "government swoops in and steals half of your dragon's hoard of gold" this is "you pay taxes to support the society that allows you to safely hoard gold in the first place, and oh by the way you're still richer than anyone else and certainly wealthy enough to live a stupidly comfortable lifestyle even if 95% of your $100M assets got repo'd and you somehow managed to never appreciate your assets at all"

If it wasn't obvious, I'm clearly pro wealth redistribution, and I get that many people are fundamentally against that. It seems dumb to me to think that modest wealth redistribution is unjust or bad unless you are currently a member of the ultra rich. (and just to be clear, I feel that even a 5% wealth tax should be described as "modest")

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#260

Perhaps notable: Switzerland has a wealth tax (of up to 0.3%), and there is zero evidence that this has any deterrent effect on wealthy people settling in Switzerland or startups being created in Switzerland. Other features of the tax system more than offset the 0.3% wealth tax. Personally, I am a bit disappointed by the lack of depth of the discourse: Wealth taxes and their effect have been studied quite a bit in ec…

"the Silicon Valley crowd is strangely avoidant of examining evidence or explaining their opposition with real-world data. It's all 101ism and polemics." It's not strange at all. It's self-interest.

It’s often not even self interest; fairly often it’s obvious that some participants in these discussions are searching for arguments to validate pre-held beliefs and policy positions.

Although sometimes self interest is also a factor.

Post reply on HN