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Modeling a Wealth Tax

paulgraham.com

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Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#111
post #34

What we need is inheritance tax. If you've made money, you can keep it. But you can't live for free just because some guy 100 years ago made money and you won the genetic lottery.

12 states have an inheritance/estate tax. Definitely worth replicating in the others, too.

As I see it, those just penalize people with moderate amounts of money (ie: trying to build generational wealth) while the truly rich simply find loopholes.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#112
Oh my, more state money would mean probably a more equal society - more money for roads, schools, teachers, research labs, health care, infrastructure and much more.

All things by the way any entrepreneur is happy to "take" or accept as given.

Forgive me, but watching extremely privileged people's viewpoint, that they are so genius is so much missing the point (of luck, and of course a society that nourishes and carries these individuals).

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And there's also a "ceiling" above which the super-wealthy manage to hire lawyers, accountants, etc. to make the rate effectively "0".

This. What all of these taxes accomplish is preventing people from becoming wealthy. In this way it benefits the people that are already wealthy by making it that much harder to climb the wealth ladder. Many of the tax increases on the "rich" really just tax the upper middle class and do nothing to tax people that are actually wealthy. If you want to tax the wealthy, then simplify the tax code and remove loopholes an…

Do they prevent people from becoming wealthy if there's a floor at 100 million?

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#114

I see no reason to be alarmed. It’s highly unlikely the government would be taking from your stock directly. Requiring shareholders to pay cash equivalent to a percentage of their shares is reasonable, although with hyper-growth companies that don’t pay dividends, this could get tricky. Maybe it would incentivize more investment in dividend-paying companies? Also, FWIW, I think it would be better to impose a wealth t…

> It’s highly unlikely the government would be taking from your stock directly.

It makes no difference whatsoever whether they take the stock directly or force you to sell the stock in order to pay the tax in cash. The end result is the same—your stock is reduced by the amount of the tax.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#115

Wealth should be taken into account when income tax is calculated. It's not fair that someone who earns 100k with no assets pays as much tax as someone who earns 100k but also inherited a 1mn house and has a whole load of cash reserves from not paying rent/mortgages for years. It's doubly not fair when the wealthier individual can divert most of their salary into a pension and not pay tax on it, because they can affo…

This has been downvoted, can someone add a counter-argument for this? I.e. why should someone with higher wealth be able to pay less tax (in absolute and relative figures) than someone with lower wealth?

Possibly because your example penalizes frugal savers, or that your concern is focused on people making $100k+/yr.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#116
post #101
post #9

Someone forgot to model growth in the value of the asset, and/or putting the wealth to use. A wealth tax is, to an approximation, the equivalent of the "management fee" that an ETF charges, but with the revenues going to the government. If you have a bucket of money that isn't doing anything, then what value does it actually bring to the economy? Penalizing static value seems almost reasonable.

> If you have a bucket of money that isn't doing anything, then what value does it actually bring to the economy? Penalizing static value seems almost reasonable. We already do that via inflation. Leave your money uninvested and we tax it 2% or more per year, every year.

One big difference here is that inflation affects everyone equally (not exactly right, but let's ignore that for now). A wealth tax would act as an extra tax on ultra wealthy individuals.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#117
post #77

I'm highly skeptical of the claim that such tax would discourage startup founders. Wealth tax proposals I've seen don't kick in until $50 million or $100 million. This means that there is a floor on how "poor" the government can make you via a wealth tax. This has two implications: 1. Most "successful" startup founders don't break that threshold of personal wealth. 2. For most startup founders, the startup is the onl…

> I'm highly skeptical of the claim that such tax would discourage startup founders. Discourage starting a company at all? Probably not, but the article does not suggest that. Do you think it might influence where they start it? Looks reasonable to me, at least qualitatively.

>Do you think it might influence where they start it?

This has always been the argument, and I've never bought it.

Now, more than ever, is the time to start a company remotely, thanks to Mr./Mrs. Covid. Have we seen a massive move away from SV and other tech centers? Have we seen a massive wave of startups in 'flyover' country?

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#118
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm highly skeptical of the claim that such tax would discourage startup founders. Discourage starting a company at all? Probably not, but the article does not suggest that. Do you think it might influence where they start it? Looks reasonable to me, at least qualitatively.

Yes, but other factors likely influence it more. Are you going to start it in Barcelona or SF, just because of the tax rate? Surely there is something to be said for startup experience, investor networks, founder communities, etc...

When the tax rate is something like _half of your stock_ over 60 years, that starts to be a bit more... impactful.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#119

Equity returns are on average 6% above inflation, so with a wealth tax of below 6% your wealth can still grow year on year indefinitely. EDIT: Source: https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2017-25.pdf . The precise number is real returns of 6.89% on equity, 7.05% on housing

Those figures include reinvested dividend income with respect to equity and reinvested rental income with respect to housing. In fact the return attributable to capital gains is only about 40% of of your 7% (page 25). Income is already taxed, at a significantly higher rate than any of the propsed wealth taxes.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#120

Every proposal I have seen kicks in after $100m. That's a level of wealth where even paying a 5% tax is likely to result in an annual net increase in wealth, as when you have that amount of money to invest achieving 5%+ returns is not unusual. The net result is that wealth would still increase, just at a slower rate. Additionally, even amongst the general population, let alone startup founders, the number of people w…

>What this means is that people arguing against a wealth tax are happy to disadvantage 330m people to protect the wealth of a low number of thousands.

By not giving 1% of your wealth to Africa you're disadvantaging a billion people to protect the wealth of one. It's not a disadvantage to someone that they're not getting a part of somebody else's wealth; we're not born with some divine right to other people's money.

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