Live data from Hacker News

Modeling a Wealth Tax

paulgraham.com

51–60 of 1001 posts

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#51
This would only be true if you allow your money to rot and don't do anything with it for 60 years. Inflation would eat into that a lot more in that scenario. Average inflation is roughly 3%.

As others pointed out, equity returns are 5-6% so if you do something with your money this won't be the case and you'll actually increase your wealth a lot.

Assuming 5% return, this is an 18x return over 60 years.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#52

What we need is inheritance tax. If you've made money, you can keep it. But you can't live for free just because some guy 100 years ago made money and you won the genetic lottery.

I’d gladly pay 100% inheritance tax on exchange for zero taxes during life.

Would anyone else go for a deal like that?

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#53

Yeah, if you don't work or even invest and do nothing for your whole entire life, while sitting on a pile of cash larger than you could ever use (and note: we specify you are NOT USING IT) you could end up dying (in a presumably stable society that hasn't itself killed you) sitting on a pile of cash only half larger than you could ever use (and we specify that you are NOT USING IT). So persuasive. Gee, I'm really con…

But most people aren’t actually sitting on “cash”. That’s the whole problem.

You might be suggesting a tax on liquid cash, which would target way fewer people.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#54

For a guy who's always railing about the value of honest, rational discourse, he's unbelievably misleading and political in this post. He ignores asset growth and the fact that all the wealth tax proposals have a very high floor for the tax. Saying the government will take 45% of your wealth above $100M is very different than saying the government will take 45% of your wealth.

From the bottom of the page:

>"Even a .5% wealth tax would start to keep founders away from a state or country that imposed it. That's more than a quarter of your stock."

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#55
Wealth tax proposals would apply to very few founders

The wealthiest top 0.1 percent is fewer than 200,000 families. source:

> Warren would put a 2 percent tax on every dollar of net worth above $50 million and a 3 percent tax on every dollar of net worth above $1 billion.

https://www.wealthypersons.com/paul-graham-net-worth-2020-20... https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2019/jan/31/elizabeth-...

IMHO wealth tax is not optimal way to distribute wealth, but it's not as pad as PG tries to make it.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#56
post #5

This ignores the fact that everywhere (including countries where wealth taxes are implemented today), there is a floor below which the tax does not kick in.

All breakpoints in tax systems contribute to market inefficiency, because they incentivize manipulating your finances to stay below breakpoints instead of maximizing efficiency. It would be better to apply a flat wealth tax and correct for the regressive effect of decreasing marginal utility of money with UBI.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#57
post #28

I’m still not sure why the debate has converged around a wealth tax rather than just making the income tax rate on every dollar above $1 billion 100% (or close to 100%). That way, on the day that the super rich decide to liquidate their assets, they only get taxed on the capital gain, and for billionaires that means they only keep some small portion of it in liquid cash. You also wouldn’t have to amend the Constituti…

They would just take out loans against their assets and pay the interest using relatively small asset sales.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#58
I personally favor using an assumed income on wealth and taxiing that as income. I would favor treating all income as ordinary income and adjusting tax rates to accommodate changes in revenue. Income is income regardless of source. Simplicity can be helpful. Remove all tax credits and deduction except a standard deduction. There is no sense in taxing the poor it's just kind of cruel.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#59

Equity returns are on average 6% above inflation, so with a wealth tax of below 6% your wealth can still grow year on year indefinitely. EDIT: Source: https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2017-25.pdf . The precise number is real returns of 6.89% on equity, 7.05% on housing

PG is talking about investing in companies, not general funds. For a founder to invest (eg., $1m) in starting a company, there is of them losing their total investment. The expected ROI needs to be fairly high to offset that. The only people who /could/ make money under such a scenario are super-rich investors making many bets that average out risk. And they wouldnt, given -- as you say -- general equity would perfor…

> For a founder to invest (eg., $1m) in starting a company

Do you mean founder, or investor? I don't know any founders who invest that much into their startup.

Startups are high-risk, high-return investments. If a wealth tax was introduced, wealthy people would need higher returns (as others have pointed out) to cover their tax obligations and so would invest in riskier investments. Like startups. So startup investment would increase.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#60

Wealth should be taken into account when income tax is calculated. It's not fair that someone who earns 100k with no assets pays as much tax as someone who earns 100k but also inherited a 1mn house and has a whole load of cash reserves from not paying rent/mortgages for years. It's doubly not fair when the wealthier individual can divert most of their salary into a pension and not pay tax on it, because they can affo…

This has been downvoted, can someone add a counter-argument for this? I.e. why should someone with higher wealth be able to pay less tax (in absolute and relative figures) than someone with lower wealth?
Post reply on HN