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Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

nytimes.com

151–160 of 357 posts

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#151
post #47

Every year you hear about horrible heat waves and fires in California but I'm here to tell you from my first-hand experience that This Time It's Different. I've lived on the SF peninsula for 10 years. We bought a brand new spec house. It was built without air conditioning. The developer said we wouldn't need it. We installed it anyway because we came from LA and a house in California without A/C did not fit into our…

I've been here my entire life. This is pretty bad. In my 30 years i've definitely never experienced a hot summer thunderstorm like the other night. It feels very bizarre.

Same. Never before seen a thunderstorm where no precipitation hit the ground.

The heat doesn't feel so new to me. As a kid I was always watching for those 100F+ days with the fascination of hitting triple digits. I have 30+ years of seeing those.

The thunderstorm was crazy tho.

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#153
post #47

Every year you hear about horrible heat waves and fires in California but I'm here to tell you from my first-hand experience that This Time It's Different. I've lived on the SF peninsula for 10 years. We bought a brand new spec house. It was built without air conditioning. The developer said we wouldn't need it. We installed it anyway because we came from LA and a house in California without A/C did not fit into our…

Not my experience at all. I've lived in Marin county for 30 years, and this doesn't feel like anything extreme. I can recall many, many similar heat waves in my life. My bet is that the bay area has many micro-climates, and people's experiences can differ wildly. It's hard to extrapolate a trend from this kind of anecdota. Edit: The summer rain/thunderstorm we had yesterday, now that is rare.

"There would be five or six wet and wonderful years when there might be nineteen to twenty-five inches of rain, and the land would shout with grass. Then would come six or seven pretty good years of twelve to sixteen inches of rain. And then the dry years would come, and sometimes there would be only seven or eight inches of rain... And it never failed that during the dry years the people forgot about the rich years, and during the wet years they lost all memory of the dry years. It was always that way."

Whenever Californians talk about whether I'm reminded of this Steinbeck quote.

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#154
post #3

as someone who apprenticed as a lineman briefly, this isnt at all unexpected. Just because you have generating capacity, does not always mean you have capacity in the duty cycle for your transmission infrastructure. Many substations are older, and were never designed to handle high duty and load during climate-change driven weather events. These substations suffer from underreporting as they often dont have remote mo…

> Wild claims related to electromagnetism

what follows is speculation, so you can grab your pitchforks if you want but it will be a hollow victory.

I've always been suspicious of the claim that EM fields have zero effect on human beings, especially near high-volts lines. It doesnt seem possible. Our bodies function based on electrical signals and many cellular mechanisms are mediated with ions.

do we have a list of all electrically-sensitive bodily processes? could we guess what would happen if their simultaneous activation changed by 5%? what about 45% or more? So much of the human body is not exhaustively understood in the general case, and certainly not in the individual case.

idk, i dont wanna go all tinfoil hat here. it just seems like circumstances are aligned for there to be large holes in our public understanding (accidentally or otherwise).

note: for whatever its worth, ive spent some time around the 8MW generators on Nimitz-class aircraft carriers[0].

[0]: https://fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/ship/cvn-68.htm

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#156
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh god...Marin NIMBYism is really crazy when it comes to that stuff. And there's a lot of conspiracy theory / 5G type stuff that goes on as well. Strange to think that many of the folks who live there are in charge of a lot of the companies on HN (or are senior execs there).

Well, they're not entirely wrong about the 5G. I understand many in this forum won't agree with me. From https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/we-have-no... > We Have No Reason to Believe 5G Is Safe > The World Health Organization's International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classified RFR as "possibly carcinogenic to humans" in 2011. Last year, a $30 million study conducted by the U.S. National T…

"so we are “flying blind” to quote a U.S. senator. "

Quoting a US senator on technology is not exactly a strong argument. Like arguing about email security and quoting a senator on the technology committee saying he has never sent an email.

https://www.engadget.com/2015-03-09-lindsey-graham-never-sen...

In many cases senators are the least possible informed people on a topic, and are almost certainly not focused on the pure science of an issue. Quoting one of them pretty much means you are trying to sway me by using their position, not research.

Also, nothing that you quoted about 5G actually says it is unsafe. Saying that 2G and 3G are unsafe and that we don't know what 4G does, and that government doesn't want to investigate 5G, and that tumors of a certain type 'may be at least partially attributable' to cell phone radiation, and all of the other slights, all of that doesn't add up to 5G is unsafe.

This is the direct rebut to the article you linked, even from the same site.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/dont-fall-...

  > On the strength of epidemiological evidence, cancer fears are dangerously misguided: While American cell-phone usage has grown from virtually zero in 1992 to virtually 100 percent by 2008, there has been no indication that glioma rates have increased proportionally in the same period—a nonrelationship replicated by numerous other studies. 

About the author

  > David Robert Grimes is a cancer researcher, physicist, and John Maddox Prize–winning science writer. He is based at Dublin City University and is a visiting researcher at the University of Oxford. He advises, across Europe, on the public understanding of science, particularly on vaccination policy and combatting cancer misinformation. His first book, The Irrational Ape: Why Flawed Logic Puts Us All at Risk, and How Critical Thinking Can Save the World, is now available from Simon & Schuster UK.

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My thought was that the gauge of the wire goes down as it sags. The same weight of wire across a longer distance. Maybe I’m wrong and this kind of wire stretching doesn’t impact resistance?

I think sag means voltage sag.

One of the more impressive things I've seen with electricity is watching a transmission line into a local neighborhood turn orange and stretch to drape itself across a pickup truck parked in the wrong spot. Took a minute to realize what I'd just watched.

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#158
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because they can vote. Yes, stupid people can vote. This is the main vulnerability of democracy.

To be clear, the US is a constitutional republic and not a democracy, and the constant use of the word democracy dilutes this fact.

This is a red herring, here is the definition of democracy: "a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives."

The US clearly fits in here. The US is not a direct democracy, but neither is any other country in the world, including Switzerland that perhaps is the one I know of that comes closest.

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#159
post #134
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What reasoning is holding us up? People turn their lights on when the sun goes down, and efficient energy storage is the holy grail. Also fun back of the napkin math with overestimates, if we have a totally efficient Li+ battery with 0.25 kWh/kg energy density, and converted all the world's 40 billion kg of lithium in the crust and oceans to batteries, we'd get roughly 10 TWh of energy storage capacity. Which is en…

Interestingly, batteries don't have to be lithium-based. https://qz.com/1355672/stacking-concrete-blocks-is-a-surpris...

The point still stands that storing energy in chemical batteries for CA-levels of usage does not math out.

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#160
post #3

as someone who apprenticed as a lineman briefly, this isnt at all unexpected. Just because you have generating capacity, does not always mean you have capacity in the duty cycle for your transmission infrastructure. Many substations are older, and were never designed to handle high duty and load during climate-change driven weather events. These substations suffer from underreporting as they often dont have remote mo…

> Wild claims related to electromagnetism what follows is speculation, so you can grab your pitchforks if you want but it will be a hollow victory. I've always been suspicious of the claim that EM fields have zero effect on human beings, especially near high-volts lines. It doesnt seem possible. Our bodies function based on electrical signals and many cellular mechanisms are mediated with ions. do we have a list of a…

Wouldn't we see those effects on the animals and plants that live around the power lines?
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