Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped • Hacker News Board

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#131

Post by myrandomcomment » Mon, Aug 17, 2020, 10:38 PM UTC

redbeard0x0a wrote: post #13

aleksandrm wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> its also worth noting that the nytimes might not be taking into account the number of people working from home. Duty and loadcycles for this year are going to be very hard to predict. Do you think think the demand would be higher? In parallel, while many people are working from home, the businesses are closed, which I would think eat up much more electricity.

Its not just overall grid usage, substations have capacities as well. So the business park is going to be underutilized, but the residential ones are probably seeing more demand as people are at home and not turning up the thermostat during the day to save energy (since they are at home and want a comfortable environment, vs. letting the house sit at 80 when nobody is home).

The temperature on the AC at my house is set at 80F. At 80F with the air flow from fans and a dressing light, there is no reason most people cannot be comfortable. I think that people cranking the AC down to 72F like they do are selfish and do not understand the impact that everyday actions have on the world as a whole.

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#132

Post by dekhn » Mon, Aug 17, 2020, 10:39 PM UTC

lisper wrote: post #47

Every year you hear about horrible heat waves and fires in California but I'm here to tell you from my first-hand experience that This Time It's Different. I've lived on the SF peninsula for 10 years. We bought a brand new spec house. It was built without air conditioning. The developer said we wouldn't need it. We installed it anyway because we came from LA and a house in California without A/C did not fit into our…

This is not consistent with my experience; I've lived in the same peninsula home for 10 years and can recall multiple summers with waves this bad or worse.

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#133

Post by LeoPanthera » Mon, Aug 17, 2020, 10:40 PM UTC

davisr wrote: post #124

paloaltokid wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh god...Marin NIMBYism is really crazy when it comes to that stuff. And there's a lot of conspiracy theory / 5G type stuff that goes on as well. Strange to think that many of the folks who live there are in charge of a lot of the companies on HN (or are senior execs there).

Well, they're not entirely wrong about the 5G. I understand many in this forum won't agree with me. From https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/we-have-no... > We Have No Reason to Believe 5G Is Safe > The World Health Organization's International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classified RFR as "possibly carcinogenic to humans" in 2011. Last year, a $30 million study conducted by the U.S. National T…

Even if Moskowitz has a point, it is difficult to take him seriously when he associates himself with "Physicians for Safe Technology", a group which maintains the belief that Electromagnetic hypersensitivity is a real thing. It is not.

It has no scientific basis and is not a recognized medical condition.

https://www.who.int/peh-emf/publications/facts/fs296/en/

High levels of RF exposure can of course do damage, in the form of burns. Any seasoned amateur radio operator at some point in the progression of their hobby can surely attest to the pain of being "bitten" by an energized RF cable.

But trying to promote the idea that cellphones are dangerous is just scaremongering. You'll absorb more energy in just a few seconds just by standing in a sunbeam.

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#134

Post by mrj » Mon, Aug 17, 2020, 10:40 PM UTC

qppo wrote: post #23

java-man wrote: post #4

The sooner we switch to solar and grid battery storage, the better. There should be no excuse whatsoever not to do that now. What reasoning is holding us up?

> What reasoning is holding us up? People turn their lights on when the sun goes down, and efficient energy storage is the holy grail. Also fun back of the napkin math with overestimates, if we have a totally efficient Li+ battery with 0.25 kWh/kg energy density, and converted all the world's 40 billion kg of lithium in the crust and oceans to batteries, we'd get roughly 10 TWh of energy storage capacity. Which is en…

Interestingly, batteries don't have to be lithium-based.

https://qz.com/1355672/stacking-concrete-blocks-is-a-surpris...

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#135

Post by lisper » Mon, Aug 17, 2020, 10:40 PM UTC

dgfitz wrote: post #125

lisper wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't actually had it checked but I'm pretty sure that the A/C is working just fine. While it is running it produces plenty of cold air. And although it is almost ten years old, it hasn't seen a lot of use during that time. Until now, that is.

If your unit is too big it actually makes things worse, because it cycles on and off a lot more which in turn means it pulls less humidity out of the air. I think the rule is you want one ton per 600sq ft that you’re cooling, give or take.

I'm pretty sure that we're underpowered if anything. Our house is three stories, built into a hill. Only the top two floors are even plumbed for A/C and only the top floor has a compressor installed. Like I said earlier, the builder didn't think we'd need A/C at all.

Humidity inside is running about 50% at the moment.

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#136

Post by nrki » Mon, Aug 17, 2020, 10:40 PM UTC

davisr wrote: post #124

paloaltokid wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh god...Marin NIMBYism is really crazy when it comes to that stuff. And there's a lot of conspiracy theory / 5G type stuff that goes on as well. Strange to think that many of the folks who live there are in charge of a lot of the companies on HN (or are senior execs there).

Well, they're not entirely wrong about the 5G. I understand many in this forum won't agree with me. From https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/we-have-no... > We Have No Reason to Believe 5G Is Safe > The World Health Organization's International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classified RFR as "possibly carcinogenic to humans" in 2011. Last year, a $30 million study conducted by the U.S. National T…

Not a great source. Science is based on evidence, not lack of evidence.

A rebuttal to that article appears in the same publication, and adroitly takes apart it's claims: https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/dont-fall-...

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#137

Post by khuey » Mon, Aug 17, 2020, 10:41 PM UTC

khuey wrote: post #130

jeffbee wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes but the sun is up right now and they are already shedding loads (the dashboard is bouncing off a ceiling of 45 GW).

That is likely natural fluctuations in demand. The grid operator has not announced any load shedding (they have not even announced any imminent need to shed load) and there's still another 5GW of available capacity according to the dashboard.

We're just in the last few minutes getting the stage 2 warning that capacity limits could be reached soon.

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#138

Post by dekhn » Mon, Aug 17, 2020, 10:42 PM UTC

khuey wrote: post #123

jeffbee wrote: post #119

Would love to know what changes day-to-day. According to CAISO dashboard, they are currently delivering 45 GW, while yesterday they were shedding load before they hit 44 GW. So, what aspect of supply changed? We're importing the same amount but we're getting 5 GW more natural gas supply than yesterday. Are there ... are there nat. gas plants that only operate on weekdays?

The issue is time of day. Everything is fine while the sun is still up. Once the sun starts setting and the ~10GW of solar power California has goes away things get challenging.

Hence the Pacific DC intertie: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_DC_Intertie "The Pacific Intertie takes advantage of differing power demand patterns between the northwestern and southwestern US. During winter, the northern region operates electrical heating devices while the southern portion uses relatively little electricity. In summer, the north uses little electricity while the south reaches peak demand due to air conditioning usage. Any time the Intertie demand lessens, the excess is distributed elsewhere on the western power grid (states west of the Great Plains, including Colorado and New Mexico).[3]"

(that predates solar, boy do I wish we could store that daylight 12-16 hours)

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#139

Post by mikemotherwell » Mon, Aug 17, 2020, 10:42 PM UTC

dave5104 wrote: post #112

rconti wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My anecdote is the opposite. I lived in Santa Clara from 2002-2010, San Carlos 2010-2011, Belmont 2011-2014, Redwood City 2014-present. Never had AC on the Peninsula. We have heatwaves every year. This summer has been remarkably mild, low 70s most of July and August until now. We got our heatwave. A bit more humid than normal thanks to tropical storm remnants, 70f dewpoint and 95f on Sunday, 65f dewpoint and spiked t…

I think one major difference this year with the current heatwave is that everyone's working from home. They're not going to an air conditioned office to work during the day, or they don't have the ability to go to the local library or Starbucks to sit and work. It's much worse having to sit through a heat wave at home with no A/C this year than in previous years.

And being home you heat the place by existing, running things, and opening windows to the heat. If you leave a house locked, it heats up pretty slowly, and if you get back towards dark, it will cool off faster from a lower temperature.

It's just a really weird year all around.

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#140

Post by scrumbledober » Mon, Aug 17, 2020, 10:42 PM UTC

lisper wrote: post #47

Every year you hear about horrible heat waves and fires in California but I'm here to tell you from my first-hand experience that This Time It's Different. I've lived on the SF peninsula for 10 years. We bought a brand new spec house. It was built without air conditioning. The developer said we wouldn't need it. We installed it anyway because we came from LA and a house in California without A/C did not fit into our…

I've been here my entire life. This is pretty bad. In my 30 years i've definitely never experienced a hot summer thunderstorm like the other night. It feels very bizarre.