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Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

nytimes.com

71–80 of 357 posts

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#71
post #38
post #3

as someone who apprenticed as a lineman briefly, this isnt at all unexpected. Just because you have generating capacity, does not always mean you have capacity in the duty cycle for your transmission infrastructure. Many substations are older, and were never designed to handle high duty and load during climate-change driven weather events. These substations suffer from underreporting as they often dont have remote mo…

I am a technician for xfinity in the bay area and NIMBYism a huge part too I would say. Huge portions of Mill Valley especially on and around Mt Tam had such bad poles and vegetation. Only the last 3 fire years did anything. But literally nothing gets approved besides exact replacement. Nothing gets put underground, or rerouted because (as I understand it) mostly NIMBY groups. And I believe ATT ultimately owns most o…

Oh god...Marin NIMBYism is really crazy when it comes to that stuff. And there's a lot of conspiracy theory / 5G type stuff that goes on as well. Strange to think that many of the folks who live there are in charge of a lot of the companies on HN (or are senior execs there).

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#72
post #20
post #3

as someone who apprenticed as a lineman briefly, this isnt at all unexpected. Just because you have generating capacity, does not always mean you have capacity in the duty cycle for your transmission infrastructure. Many substations are older, and were never designed to handle high duty and load during climate-change driven weather events. These substations suffer from underreporting as they often dont have remote mo…

> Wild claims related to electromagnetism basically kill the project at every level. Serious question, why is the answer to this not a slightly-but-not-much-more-polite version of "That's ridiculous, be quiet." and moving forward?

Not enough people are willing to spend time at city hall community hearings and make the voice of reason heard whereas these other people will show up to make demands. Same thing happened here when the city wanted to install free wifi in public parks for students, all the nuts flooded the meetings making ridiculous claims and demands but none of the people who would benefit bothered to show up so they canned the idea.

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#73
post #38
post #3

as someone who apprenticed as a lineman briefly, this isnt at all unexpected. Just because you have generating capacity, does not always mean you have capacity in the duty cycle for your transmission infrastructure. Many substations are older, and were never designed to handle high duty and load during climate-change driven weather events. These substations suffer from underreporting as they often dont have remote mo…

I am a technician for xfinity in the bay area and NIMBYism a huge part too I would say. Huge portions of Mill Valley especially on and around Mt Tam had such bad poles and vegetation. Only the last 3 fire years did anything. But literally nothing gets approved besides exact replacement. Nothing gets put underground, or rerouted because (as I understand it) mostly NIMBY groups. And I believe ATT ultimately owns most o…

I do think the recent fires have nudged things towards more undergrounding. I'm familiar with some of the dialogue in similarly rural/affluent peninsula towns, and it's mostly a debate about safety versus cost to underground.

There's an effort to underground the utilities near Foothill College by tapping into Santa Clara County Fire's funds for improved fire safety, since they're allowed to use these funds in that specific location.

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#74
post #47

Every year you hear about horrible heat waves and fires in California but I'm here to tell you from my first-hand experience that This Time It's Different. I've lived on the SF peninsula for 10 years. We bought a brand new spec house. It was built without air conditioning. The developer said we wouldn't need it. We installed it anyway because we came from LA and a house in California without A/C did not fit into our…

My anecdote is the opposite. I lived in Santa Clara from 2002-2010, San Carlos 2010-2011, Belmont 2011-2014, Redwood City 2014-present.

Never had AC on the Peninsula. We have heatwaves every year. This summer has been remarkably mild, low 70s most of July and August until now. We got our heatwave. A bit more humid than normal thanks to tropical storm remnants, 70f dewpoint and 95f on Sunday, 65f dewpoint and spiked to 105f Saturday briefly.

It seems fractionally warmer than most heatwaves, and slightly longer, but doesn't 'feel' indicative of a trend.

Still no A/C, and I guess I notice it more now that I'm home 24/7, but still totally do-able.

Been running the house fan overnight to get the rooms down into the mid-high 70s.

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#75
post #68

The article ends with: “If there’s really a problem and not just the ISO jumping the gun, it’s going to manifest tomorrow,” Mr. Marcus said. “Tomorrow evening, the wolf arrives.” What is that referencing?

Little Red Riding Hood or Three Little Pigs, would be my first two guesses.

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#76
post #70

What's going to happen when they close Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant? [1] It currently provides 9% of the state's power (2256MW). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diablo_Canyon_Power_Plant

Percentage isn't the issue. Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant provides the base power usage, which isn't the issue that's causing the blackouts. Looking at raw percentage numbers for blackouts is wrong because this is an issue of not having enough capacity during peak, which nuclear doesn't solve.

You still have to replace that 9% with something that runs 24/7.

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#77
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The statement referred to heating driving sagging, which increased resistance. The increase of resistance with temperature is well-known -- I was curious if there is some effect that is directly related to the wire sag (changing morphology, somehow-altered surface area/skin-depth, changing kinks at the connections, some subtlety with increased length (cross-sectional area also increases), etc..).

Theoretically I would thing the sag itself should increase resistance since resistance increases with both length and smaller wire diameter. When the line lengthens the diameter should decrease (similar to stretching a piece of gum or putty).

I don't think it should. Heat expansion should slightly increase the diameter.

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#78
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does line-sag lead to increased resistance? My understanding is that the mean-free-path of conduction electrons in even OFHC copper is quite short -- scattering on impurities is the dominant loss mechanism, not the boundaries of the conductor. Is the theory advanced above that the morphology of the wire matters, or is there another mechanism at work?

My thought was that the gauge of the wire goes down as it sags. The same weight of wire across a longer distance. Maybe I’m wrong and this kind of wire stretching doesn’t impact resistance?

I think sag means voltage sag.

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#79
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Wild claims related to electromagnetism basically kill the project at every level. Serious question, why is the answer to this not a slightly-but-not-much-more-polite version of "That's ridiculous, be quiet." and moving forward?

Not enough people are willing to spend time at city hall community hearings and make the voice of reason heard whereas these other people will show up to make demands. Same thing happened here when the city wanted to install free wifi in public parks for students, all the nuts flooded the meetings making ridiculous claims and demands but none of the people who would benefit bothered to show up so they canned the idea…

And the council members are so incapable of critical thought that they believe that the loud nutjobs who show up are representative of their constituents?

Re: Rolling blackouts in California have power experts stumped

#80
post #70

What's going to happen when they close Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant? [1] It currently provides 9% of the state's power (2256MW). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diablo_Canyon_Power_Plant

Percentage isn't the issue. Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant provides the base power usage, which isn't the issue that's causing the blackouts. Looking at raw percentage numbers for blackouts is wrong because this is an issue of not having enough capacity during peak, which nuclear doesn't solve.

But wouldn't losing 9% of production reduce peak capacity as well?
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