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Why did the A-level algorithm say no?

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Why did the A-level algorithm say no?

#61

Post by jarvist »

chongli wrote: post #6
Jabbles wrote: post #3

Do teachers recommend a grade, or a score? If they only recommend grades, how did the algorithm pick which students to change the grades for?

The algorithm took the teachers' recommended grades and used them only to rank the students at that school. The actual grades were calculated based on past years' performance for each school. So if you were the top performer at a low-ranking school, your grade would be in line with top performers at that school in previous years.

No, teachers submitted both predicted grades, and in large cohort classes (such as English and Maths), a rank ordering of the entire cohort.

Re: Why did the A-level algorithm say no?

#62

Post by jarvist »

mjburgess wrote: post #39
corin_ wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Independant schools (private schools) received 4.7% more A/A* grades than they did in 2019. The most common type of non-private school, Secondary Comprehensive, received only 2% more A/A* grades than in 2019. The algorithm didn't keep the gap between paid and unpaid education, it expanded it. (Source for these numbers and more in my first comment.) I was lucky enough to not only go to two private schools, but the sec…

Right, and what was the previous yoy disparity? If the previous YoY was also 5%/2%, then it is just repeating the trend. It isnt the job of statisticians to "fix" social inequality by BSing some grades. Its their job to estimate likely exam results based on previous performance. There's absolutely no grounds on which to assume that growth in A*/A across these demographics would be the same; and of course, very many r…

Previous YoY was -1.9%/-1.5%.

How could +5% possibly be an actual trend? What new magic teaching innovation have independent schools done for this year's cohort, that wasn't available in previous years or to teachers in the state sector?

Table 9-10: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...

Re: Why did the A-level algorithm say no?

#63

Post by Twirrim »

stoneman24 wrote: post #59
Twirrim wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's a write-up of the situation, shared on Facebook publicly, from a friend involved in careers at a UK Sixth Form college (where students take their A-Levels): ################### I've spent the last two days dealing with very upset young people who have had their plans ripped up. Some will still be able to go to university, but not the one they planned on and have been forced into clearing, some won't be able to…

Thank you for information. As a Scot, with a relative involved (she got what she needed), I am grateful, that the Scot gov changed their minds and used teachers grades without moderation. Even though our mocks (“prelims”) are produced by the SQA who also do the main exams. It’s a unprecedented situation, let’s cut some slack and base it on the best info that we have, the teachers view. I hope English gov see sense bu…

As I commented on his post, you'd have thought that after seeing the mess in Scotland there would have been alarms bells ringing among senior leadership "Abort, abort, abort!"

But yeah, why would you bother learning when you can just make the same mistake?

Re: Why did the A-level algorithm say no?

#64

Post by dynamite-ready »

corin_ wrote: post #57
dynamite-ready wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What doesn't quite make sense, is the fact that these students sat 'mock' examinations earlier in the year. Presumably, these 'mock' exams are based on an empirical standard, similar to the one used for the 'final' exam. So the first question is, why weren't these 'mock' results the main anchor for these derived results?

The problem with mock exams is that they don't follow any national rules on how they're used. Some schools do them in November, some in March. Some teachers mark them having not been trained in A Level marking. Some schools may do mocks in exact exam conditions, others might not bother with one part of the test, or have them done without supervision. Some teachers grade them accurately, some intentionally grade them…

I suppose teachers never had a duty to communicate that to the students before, but that's going to be a pretty important detail in the coming weeks.

I doubt many parents would have been made aware of the precise meaning of 'mock' examinations results either.

The next question then, was whether this emergency scheme was tested against results from previous years, rather than fashioning the algorithm to match results from previous school years.

Re: Why did the A-level algorithm say no?

#65

Post by bananaface »

pjc50 wrote: post #17
bananaface wrote: post #11

[deleted]

The A level is a two year course with assessment at the end. There are no previously examined grades, only estimated and mock ones. https://www.aqa.org.uk/subjects/science/as-and-a-level/chemi... (Modular and coursework based A levels were popular under labour but reverted by the Tories)

Huh! I didn't realise it had changed. We took exams in both years when I took it.

Re: Why did the A-level algorithm say no?

#66

Post by jarvist »

corin_ wrote: post #58
mjburgess wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. It should be published. However more important than the algorithm is just the media reporting on what ofqual actually say. I've barely read any of their actual analysis in news on the issue. Key facts: students are always ranked and graded on a curve. Student populations have a fixed number of grades awarded every year, etc. The system is specifically designed in recognition that grades are positional goods,…

> Key facts: students are always ranked and graded on a curve. Student populations have a fixed number of grades awarded every year, etc. I'm pretty sure that's not correct, please find a source suggesting that. There have been major reforms (primarily the changing A Levels back from the modular version that Labour had previously introduced) and these were specifically aimed at reducing grade inflation. If there were…

Starting with the 2010 introduction of the A* grade, the proportion of grades awarded has been almost constant (25% A/A*, 25% B, 25% C). This is in contrast to the consistent 'grade inflation' visible for the previous twenty years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grade_inflation#UK_A-Level_cla...

Re: Why did the A-level algorithm say no?

#67

Post by switch007 »

russholmes wrote: post #38
viburnum wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope, they excluded small schools (expensive private schools) from the algorithm.

Small classes are excluded, so as you say, biased towards private schools. My niece was hit by this but luckily still did well enough to get a place. She was attending a large school in a deprived area. Her coursework was A*, given predicted AAA but was downgraded to ABB. The minister of education's reason for downgrading the grades was so that pupils did not end up in jobs they were not capable of doing. Delicious i…

> The minister of education's reason for downgrading the grades was so that pupils did not end up in jobs they were not capable of doing. Delicious irony.

Fake news, sorry. https://fullfact.org/education/gavin-williamson-fake-quote/

Re: Why did the A-level algorithm say no?

#68

Post by mcguire »

dkarp wrote: post #43
pjc50 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The A level is a two year course with assessment at the end. There are no previously examined grades, only estimated and mock ones. https://www.aqa.org.uk/subjects/science/as-and-a-level/chemi... (Modular and coursework based A levels were popular under labour but reverted by the Tories)

Wow, I didn’t realise it changed. What a horrible situation where a whole year group are reliant on their teachers’ opinion of them and the success of other kids at the same school the previous year. Neither of which these children have any direct control over.

Eh, well, if they're the right sort of people, they'll catch it on the bounce.

Re: Why did the A-level algorithm say no?

#69

Post by Magnets »

https://www.ucas.com/file/292726/download?token=wswAnzge

"In 2019, 21% (31,220) of accepted 18 year old applicants met or exceeded their predicted grades, a decrease of 3 percentage points. In addition, 43.2% of accepted applicants had a difference of three or more A level grades – an increase of 5 percentage points (7,190 applicants more) since 2018."

Teacher predicted grades are almost useless.

Now Scotland has caved to political pressure and wants to inflate grades

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-537...

"However, these grades, taken overall, would represent a significant improvement on previous years - including a jump of 20 percentage points in the pass rate for pupils from the most deprived areas."

"If the results had purely been based on the estimates from teachers, pass rates at grades A-C would have increased by 10.4 percentage points for National 5, by 14 percentage points for Higher and by 13.4 percentage points for Advanced Higher.

These estimated results would have led to a higher annual change than had ever been seen before in Scottish exam results if they had not been moderated by the SQA."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53636296

A really difficult situation when what you have to work from is already inaccurate.

Re: Why did the A-level algorithm say no?

#70

Post by thom »

krisoft wrote: post #51

This was so foreseeable when they anounced the plans. One possible solution could have been if they do the same statistical estimation game and then offer a choice to each student: you can take your estimated grades or go for an exam. If you take the exam you get what you het there. It might go lower or higher than the estimate. This would have incentivised that only those who are certain of themselves and their esti…

The whole point is that it hasn’t been possible to sit exams.
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