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Professional sporting events increase seasonal influenza mortality in US cities

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Re: Professional sporting events increase seasonal influenza mortality in US cities

#11

Post by risaacs99 »

ttul wrote: post #4

I can foresee that one of the consequences of the pandemic will be a permanent change in the way that society views transmissible diseases. Prior to March, it was okay to gather in large groups and just get sick a few times a year. After the pandemic, I’m not sure people will be okay with that anymore.

I always find it interesting how people can think completely differently about this topic depending on how they frame it in their mind. If you think about it from the perspective of personal risk, then young people bristle at being told what to do. If you think about it from the perspective of contagion and at risk people who want to be able to participate in society, you would have a different perspective.

Hopefully we can agree that years where we lose 100,000 people from influenza are tragic, even if we've become accustomed to it. The optimistic possible outcome from this pandemic is maybe that rapid, inexpensive in-home testing for common virus infections becomes widespread. That'd allow a responsible person to test themselves before they went to a sporting event.

It'd also be wonderful if we invested more in a universal influenza vaccination. That's been right around the corner for decades now.

Re: Professional sporting events increase seasonal influenza mortality in US cities

#12

Post by seizethecheese »

The money quote:

“The arrival of a new professional sports team in a city, and the commencement of play by that team, increases flu mortality in the city. The largest effect comes from a new NHL team. A new NHL team moving into a city and starting play causes an increase in weekly influenza mortality of 0.382 per 100,000 residents per flu season compared to cities with no professional sports teams. Based on the sample means on Table 1, this result represents a 24.6% increase in weekly flu mortality per 100,000 residents or a total increase of about 20 flu deaths over a year in each treated city. A new NFL team moving into a city causes an increase in annual influenza mortality rates of 0.249 per flu season, a 17% increase, equivalent to about 13 additional flu deaths over 52 weeks. A city that becomes home to a new NBA team experiences an increase in flu mortality rates of 0.066 which is a 4.7% increase. The effect of a new team on flu mortality is smallest in MLB where the entry of a new team results in an increase in flu mortality rates of 0.059 or 5.3% increase.”

Re: Professional sporting events increase seasonal influenza mortality in US cities

#13

Post by seizethecheese »

rossdavidh wrote: post #3

Couldn't we go further, and just say "cities increase seasonal influenza mortality"? I mean, anything that is social, is almost certain to involve increased transmission of human-to-human infectious diseases. Live theater, classrooms, church services, drag shows, you name it, if it involves bringing a lot of people together, it's probably going to increase the spread of infectious diseases that spread by human-to-hum…

This paper specifically looks at before and after a sports team arrives, so it’s independent of the effect of cities.

Re: Professional sporting events increase seasonal influenza mortality in US cities

#14

Post by thepowersthatbe »

rossdavidh wrote: post #3

Couldn't we go further, and just say "cities increase seasonal influenza mortality"? I mean, anything that is social, is almost certain to involve increased transmission of human-to-human infectious diseases. Live theater, classrooms, church services, drag shows, you name it, if it involves bringing a lot of people together, it's probably going to increase the spread of infectious diseases that spread by human-to-hum…

No, we can't. That realization would interfere with important narratives and is not welcome.

We'll simply couple our newfound fears with our existing fears (US football brain injuries, etc.) and finally, at long last, do away with useless ableist pastimes like professional sports.

Just stay home. We'll let you know if and when your allowed leave going forward.

Re: Professional sporting events increase seasonal influenza mortality in US cities

#15

Post by koolba »

seizethecheese wrote: post #12

The money quote: “The arrival of a new professional sports team in a city, and the commencement of play by that team, increases flu mortality in the city. The largest effect comes from a new NHL team. A new NHL team moving into a city and starting play causes an increase in weekly influenza mortality of 0.382 per 100,000 residents per flu season compared to cities with no professional sports teams. Based on the sampl…

There’s clearly more impact from indoor winter sports, such as hockey, vs outdoor summer sports like football.

Re: Professional sporting events increase seasonal influenza mortality in US cities

#16

Post by threatofrain »

rossdavidh wrote: post #3

Couldn't we go further, and just say "cities increase seasonal influenza mortality"? I mean, anything that is social, is almost certain to involve increased transmission of human-to-human infectious diseases. Live theater, classrooms, church services, drag shows, you name it, if it involves bringing a lot of people together, it's probably going to increase the spread of infectious diseases that spread by human-to-hum…

It's good to quantify and ballpark that damage instead of leaving it as an intuitive guess. If public policy demands the trading of lives, at least it shouldn't be done by way of blind poker.

This study ballparks it around 10-20 deaths per year per 100k residents.

Re: Professional sporting events increase seasonal influenza mortality in US cities

#17

Post by josephcsible »

seizethecheese wrote: post #13
rossdavidh wrote: post #3

Couldn't we go further, and just say "cities increase seasonal influenza mortality"? I mean, anything that is social, is almost certain to involve increased transmission of human-to-human infectious diseases. Live theater, classrooms, church services, drag shows, you name it, if it involves bringing a lot of people together, it's probably going to increase the spread of infectious diseases that spread by human-to-hum…

This paper specifically looks at before and after a sports team arrives, so it’s independent of the effect of cities.

The point was "cities increase it too", not "it's just cities and not sports teams".

Re: Professional sporting events increase seasonal influenza mortality in US cities

#18

Post by [deleted] »

fullshark wrote: post #10
ttul wrote: post #4

I can foresee that one of the consequences of the pandemic will be a permanent change in the way that society views transmissible diseases. Prior to March, it was okay to gather in large groups and just get sick a few times a year. After the pandemic, I’m not sure people will be okay with that anymore.

So many forecasts i hear about the fallout of this, such as everyone living in private fortresses in the suburbs working from home, not going into large groups ever again, abandoning the cities, conferences, and universities for online vocational training seem dystopian to be honest.

[deleted]

Re: Professional sporting events increase seasonal influenza mortality in US cities

#19

Post by wiredfool »

koolba wrote: post #15
seizethecheese wrote: post #12

The money quote: “The arrival of a new professional sports team in a city, and the commencement of play by that team, increases flu mortality in the city. The largest effect comes from a new NHL team. A new NHL team moving into a city and starting play causes an increase in weekly influenza mortality of 0.382 per 100,000 residents per flu season compared to cities with no professional sports teams. Based on the sampl…

There’s clearly more impact from indoor winter sports, such as hockey, vs outdoor summer sports like football.

Football is a typical summer sport that runs from September through January.

Re: Professional sporting events increase seasonal influenza mortality in US cities

#20

Post by D0zMe »

rossdavidh wrote: post #3

Couldn't we go further, and just say "cities increase seasonal influenza mortality"? I mean, anything that is social, is almost certain to involve increased transmission of human-to-human infectious diseases. Live theater, classrooms, church services, drag shows, you name it, if it involves bringing a lot of people together, it's probably going to increase the spread of infectious diseases that spread by human-to-hum…

It's time to head for the hills and live with satellite internet.
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