141–150 of 282 posts
I can’t quantify my emotions and share their weight distribution. Anybody writing an article like this has already written the entire thing before doing any of the questioning, and it’s stupidly easy to get a survey result by asking the right question.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
But we do know that. Or at least we can glean as much based upon the distribution by age for hospital admittance and death. We don’t know what, if any, the long term consequences will be. But the short term death risk for young children appears to be minimal.
The difference in worry parents have over short term and "long term" death risks for their kids is marginal. In particular: if something could happen to jeopardize your kids lives while they are still kids --- which we do not know --- it's an overwhelming worry. This is one of those conversations where message board logic stands a good chance of taking us far away from how real-world humans would reason.
Meanwhile, the thought of sending my kids back to school in two weeks has me sleepless (again). We have already seen different evidence surface in the last month or so but zero adjustment to the school plans. As much as I would like to approach this all in a dispassionate and rational way the parent 'module' in me tells me in no uncertain terms that I'm doing something irresponsible by not standing up for them more forcefully and trusting the experts on this.
Yeah this is definitely not surprising to the least! Even if I was laid off I am more worried about my children having long term health effects (or worse) than missing a few bills, and that is before considering how flexible lenders are claiming to be (I've gotten emails from all my major bills about covid related help they can provide). I am just so confused why some people are acting like kids are a different speci…
People put a lot of weight in early studies from countries that didn’t see outbreaks in schools. My problem with those studies has been: 1) Community spread in those areas was very low. 2) Kids were/are not being tested at anywhere near the same rate as adults. 3) We really have no idea whether there are long term effects in asymptomatic individuals. Regarding both 2 and 3, kids seem to be largely asymptomatic. That…
> But given that asymptomatic adults might have long term negative effects
Unfortunately, there's no control for these assumptions. People are exposed to all sorts of things over their lifetime. Not everyone produces antibodies, so there will be no definitive way to link any person having an infection and any long term effects. Need to establish the risk compared to existing baseline.
So far, deaths are down for the year, so everyone's switched to 'unknown long term effects.'
I wish there was more conversation happening about other countries who have already successfully put kids back at school. That might give confidence to people in North America who feel uncertain about it.
> I wish there was more conversation happening about other countries who have already successfully put kids back at school. > That might give confidence to people in North America who feel uncertain about it. This is like trying to give someone confidence to jump out of a plane without a parachute by talking about all the people who've safely jumped out of planes with parachutes. It's BS: the situations are different…
It's more like giving them the confidence to jump by telling them that other people have successfully jumped.
Perhaps the jumper does not have the ideal mindset, but it's better to inform them that it is possible rather than keeping them in the dark, acting as if no one has ever successfully jumped before.
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I am just so confused why some people are acting like kids are a different species when it comes to covid. Those people think "opening the economy" is worth more than human (kid or otherwise) lives. They're either politicians trying to convince an electorate that they didn't fail miserably at their job, or are regular Joes falling victim to disingenuous cable news networks.
Painting your strawmen with very broad brushes. What about the long term health consequences of poverty? At least those are known.
We have only one thing we can do to get the economy back on the rails: bring the case count down. The longer we let this go without properly managing it, the harder it is to bring the case count down. The longer the case count is too high for reasonable, cautious people who care about their parents and grandparents' survival and their long term lung health to participate significantly in the economy, the more damage the economy will sustain.
If you want businesses to be opening up now, you should've demanded for them to close 6 months ago. If you want schools to open, you should've been demanding that everyone wear a mask 6 months ago.
At this stage of the pandemic, people who selfishly refused to do their part for their fellow citizens are entirely to blame for the continued necessity of mask requirements and schools closing.
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Are you confusing harm with death rates? It's a novel virus and we still do not know the long term health impacts of it.
Everything novel has this problem, and fortunately our epistemology is up to the task. We set our priors to a weighted linear combination of other similar things and then revise as evidence comes in. For instance, MMR II was approved in 1978. How do we know that people who were given MMR II won't spontaneously die at the age of 60? Or perhaps to bring it closer to another problem, how do we know they won't spontaneou…
Yeah this is definitely not surprising to the least! Even if I was laid off I am more worried about my children having long term health effects (or worse) than missing a few bills, and that is before considering how flexible lenders are claiming to be (I've gotten emails from all my major bills about covid related help they can provide). I am just so confused why some people are acting like kids are a different speci…
> Yes they have less effects than adults but some children do go to the hospital and ICU You see this kind of vague claim online all the time when it comes to COVID but with no actual data. What are the actual risks of a child going to the hospital as a result of COVID infection? How does that compare to other risks that you regularly expose your kids to?
Compared to the flu, just looking at the proportion of children who are diagnosed positive cases, children would be about equally as likely to require hospitalization, but this likely overstates the hospitalization risk of COVID.
In terms of death rates, flu is significantly more deadly (at least 10x more deadly) in children 0-14, and about equally as deadly for ages 15-24. [1]
[1] - https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/07/14/coronavirus-covid-death...
I can’t believe how dismissive people are about people who are worried about their finances during this. So many false equivalencies being made about bankruptcy being preferable to death. I am not one of these people that is cavalier about COVID, it’s a real danger and the long term damage to the body is just being discovered. But we all know for sure what the long term health effects of poverty are. Whether you like…
I can’t believe how dismissive people are about people who are worried about their finances during this. So many false equivalencies being made about bankruptcy being preferable to death. I am not one of these people that is cavalier about COVID, it’s a real danger and the long term damage to the body is just being discovered. But we all know for sure what the long term health effects of poverty are. Whether you like…
We have the technology to revive an economy - remember, we're on an all time stock rally & going higher.
At least from the NZ example (or Canada), it is clear that a war footing on the pandemic does bring back demand - the supply is easier to revive.
The economy is made of people, even if the entire supply side is automated.
Though if you automate both sides, you can end up with a two-body simulation of a high GDP economy[1].
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This is encouraging. People are most worried about the most serious problem.
Are they? Nobody seems to care much about the ordinary flu, though lots still die from it. Hospital acquired infections are a major cause of death, but few worry about that. The most likely causes of death for children are drowning and car accidents, but people worry far more about terrorist incidents. And on it goes.
Not anywhere near as many as are dying from Covid.