Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

How will the world vaccinate seven billion?

bbc.co.uk

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 78 posts

Re: How will the world vaccinate seven billion?

#61

Post by scambier »

nickthemagicman wrote: post #43
scambier wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd rather not get sick and risk dying, even if I'm under 50. Thank you very much. And more importantly, even if the risk of death is low for me, I can still transmit it to high risk people.

I'm not saying you shouldn't have the option... but there's plenty of us that understand how risk works.

And there's plenty of us that understand that "low risk" is still risk, that getting sick without dying is not without long-term health effects, and that vaccination is not only for you, but for your community.

Re: How will the world vaccinate seven billion?

#62

Post by somjeed »

scambier wrote: post #61
nickthemagicman wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying you shouldn't have the option... but there's plenty of us that understand how risk works.

And there's plenty of us that understand that "low risk" is still risk, that getting sick without dying is not without long-term health effects, and that vaccination is not only for you, but for your community.

And there's also plenty of us that recognize what some are certain is best for the community, may not be. E.g. politicized forced vaccination

Re: How will the world vaccinate seven billion?

#63

Post by AstralStorm »

goalieca wrote: post #59
kwhitefoot wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not evident yet that a large proportion of the population will be immune. The virus has some similarities with the common cold and it is well known that immunity does not last for the common cold. Having COVID without symptoms (asymptomatic) does not mean that you are immune and you are still infectious. Edit: > even now a lot of people are having covid w/o any symptoms at all The last estimate I saw (last week…

The original herd immunity "estimates" of 60% were 1-1/Ro. This never considered heterogeneous spread and it assumed everyone was equally susceptible. It's hard to estimate prevalance because PCR testing has a large false negative rate. It depends highly on which day of the infection you're tested and even then the peak rate is still quite miserable for trying to find it. Serorevalence is also tricky as we trade off…

Generally if this virus is anything like other coronaviruses, it will adapt. And this flare up regularly even if immunity is present. That's how it made the interspecies jumps after all.

So at best it will be a perpetual game of cat and mouse, like it is with flu, but with higher stakes.

Re: How will the world vaccinate seven billion?

#64

Post by AstralStorm »

xbmcuser wrote: post #17
zaro wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am also not sure how long it lasts but I fail to see why it will matter whether you got the immunity from a vaccine or the normal way. And let's say everybody get vaccine in 2 weeks period of time, if the immunity doesn't last at least few years what's the point of this mass vaccination then.

It will stop the spread and die out if everyone gets a vaccination in short period. The virus can't survive outside a host very long so if everyone is immune even for a short period it has no one to spread to. It can be done country by country. Then only people that get the vaccination are allowed inside a country that is immune.

That is very unlikely to happen, if only because vaccines do not have anywhere close to 100% success rate and many people won't be vaccinated due to health reasons alone. Plus there will be animal reservoirs.

Nothing has this kind of success rates. Vaccine, if effective, reduces risk of vulnerable groups and transmission from their caretakers. Exactly like flu vaccination.

Heck, we have failed to eradicate polio in all countries, a level 1 virus much easier to control. I predict zero chance we can eradicate a level 2 virus right now.

Re: How will the world vaccinate seven billion?

#65

Post by AstralStorm »

xlm1717 wrote: post #57
Nitrolo wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because getting infected still carries a significant risk of illness, permanent health problems, or death with it, especially for at-risk groups. Getting vaccinated would sidestep that risk. And even if everybody did recover, there's the economic cost of an infection. Productivity missed because workers are sick at home, or worse in a hospital being cared for. I'm not sure what the dollar figures are, but I would not…

The ship has long since sailed for productivity missed.

The ship will return in a few months, you cannot expect everyone to keep this level of measures indefinitely.

Re: How will the world vaccinate seven billion?

#66

Post by AstralStorm »

nickthemagicman wrote: post #46
dividedbyzero wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you link to studies that support this point of view, if you have any? What are your sources?

>Post your link saying that people can be re-infected.

Multiple cases described. You're being lazy as there is consensus that immunity if present is fickle.

A well documented one: https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200720/Doctor-in-Israel-...

Re: How will the world vaccinate seven billion?

#67

Post by AstralStorm »

xlm1717 wrote: post #56
kwhitefoot wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not evident yet that a large proportion of the population will be immune. The virus has some similarities with the common cold and it is well known that immunity does not last for the common cold. Having COVID without symptoms (asymptomatic) does not mean that you are immune and you are still infectious. Edit: > even now a lot of people are having covid w/o any symptoms at all The last estimate I saw (last week…

Immunity doesn't last for the common cold because there's so many viruses that cause it.

Uhm, about 6-20 very common ones,, though total count is close to 200. And these have variants. But even within just betacoronavirus 1 OH49 (10% of colds or thereabouts) immunity is not persistent.

It is just mild enough. There's another one alphacoronavirus in about 5% of colds that is much worse. (Not counting SARS group.) Mind you parallel infection with multiple viruses is common.

Re: How will the world vaccinate seven billion?

#68

Post by goalieca »

AstralStorm wrote: post #63
goalieca wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The original herd immunity "estimates" of 60% were 1-1/Ro. This never considered heterogeneous spread and it assumed everyone was equally susceptible. It's hard to estimate prevalance because PCR testing has a large false negative rate. It depends highly on which day of the infection you're tested and even then the peak rate is still quite miserable for trying to find it. Serorevalence is also tricky as we trade off…

Generally if this virus is anything like other coronaviruses, it will adapt. And this flare up regularly even if immunity is present. That's how it made the interspecies jumps after all. So at best it will be a perpetual game of cat and mouse, like it is with flu, but with higher stakes.

Let's assume this virus will be endemic. Why would we assume that the second infection would be any worse than the first? Our immune system is highly adaptive and generally does very well. In fact, we've now got good evidence that there is cross-protection from antibodies and t-cells from other coronaviruses in circulation.

Re: How will the world vaccinate seven billion?

#69

Post by moistly »

chrisco255 wrote: post #24
bigbluedots wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point of having a vaccine is to stop the spread of the disease. For that to work, we may need to mandate that people are vaccinated, and I am ok with that.

No, sorry. My body. My choice.

Not when the health outcomes will financially cripple us all. We simply can not afford to continue having mass outbreaks of this disease. It costs absolute fortunes to deal with the immediate crisis, and fortunes more over the long term dealing with survivors’ continued ill health. “My choice” is simply not compatible with maintaining a healthcare system or even a productive economy.

Re: How will the world vaccinate seven billion?

#70

Post by moistly »

amanaplanacanal wrote: post #19
lez wrote: post #12

It should be opt-in AND unvaccinated ppl should never face consequences in the future.

I know some childhood vaccinations are required here, but I’m not aware of any adult vaccinations that are generally required. Possibly flu shots for health care workers?

If you travel, vaccinations are sometimes not optional, depending on the destination.
Post reply on HN